"Timing Matters: Shifting Economic Activity and Intra-day Variation in Ambient Ozone Concentrations", joint with Edson Severnini. Journal of Public Economics (Volume 223, July 2023). NBER Working Paper No. 31069, IZA Discussion Paper No. 13428.
Ground-level ozone has been shown to have significant negative health externalities from short-term exposure, and as such has been regulated by the U.S. Clean Air Act since the 1970s. Ozone is not emitted directly; instead formation occurs due to a complex Leontief-like combination of air pollutants, under sunlight and warm temperatures, that results in high levels mid-day and low levels at night. Despite this known relationship, EPA regulations mostly consider the total emissions of ozone precursors and not when these emissions occur. Using hourly data on ambient ozone from 1980 to 2017 near the U.S. time zone borders, we provide evidence that the 1-hour time difference on either side of a border leads to a nontrivial change in ozone levels in certain hours of the day. We then examine a cap-and-trade program targeting ozone precursor emissions – the NO x Budget Program – finding that while it reduced ozone overall it did not have an economically significant effect on the timing of those emissions. We conclude by outlining a possible policy approach to account for the time-varying value of reductions in ozone precursor emissions."Considering the Nuclear Option: Hidden Benefits and Social Costs of Nuclear Power in the U.S. Since 1970”, joint with Akshaya Jha and Edson Severnini, Resource and Energy Economics (Volume 59, February 2020, 101127).
Although burning fossil fuels has environmental consequences, many countries have switched away from nuclear power in favor of fossil-fuel fired electricity production after incidents at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima. This study estimates the substitution between nuclear and fossil-fuel fired electricity generation in the United States. Using an event-study framework, we leverage nuclear plant openings from 1970-1995, and forced nuclear plant outages from 1999-2014. Plant openings (nuclear outages) reduce (increase) monthly net coal-fired generation by approximately 200 GWh, implying a considerable reduction (increase) in emissions. We find that the substitution between nuclear and coal is not one-to-one, as has been assumed in prior literature. After establishing these stylized facts, we explore the potential underlying forces driving the observed substitution between coal and nuclear."The Network Effects of Climate Change: Evidence from Airline Delays." (Job Market Paper)
The literature on the economic impacts of climate change has primarily focused on local effects, but in an increasingly interconnected world it is important to understand the network effects. However, in many cases it has proven difficult to empirically assess the importance of the non-local impact of weather shocks because of general equilibrium effects. In this paper, I present credible evidence of a network effect of climate change in the airline industry by extending the traditional origin-destination pair to include the previous flight from the source airport. I utilize a detailed dataset of daily flights in the U.S. for all major domestic U.S. airports from 2010-2017 to understand how weather shocks at the flight’s source, origin, and destination airports affect on-time flight performance. I find that high temperatures at any of these airports increase both the probability and duration of departure delays, and ignoring the network structure leads one to underestimate the local effects at the origin by nearly 50%. Using climate projections from NEX-GDDP, I project total summer departure delays will increase 110,000 hours by mid-century due to rising temperatures, at a minimum cost to airlines and passengers of $1.0-$1.4 billion."The Economics of Local Air Quality Alerts", joint with Edson Severnini and Sarah Taylor.
Many local air quality control agencies choose to issue air quality alerts for days when pollutant levels are predicted to be unhealthy. Although they usually rely on air quality forecasts, the decision to issue an alert may also reflect the interests of opposing local groups. In this study, we set up a simple theoretical framework for the purpose of understanding the nature of such policies, highlighting the potential trade-off of erring on the side of caution to protect public health -- a "pro-health" stance -- or on the side of the business community -- a "pro-economy" stance that avoids disengaging the public from everyday activities. Using air quality forecast and ozone alert data for U.S. cities from 2004-2017, we provide evidence that local agencies use strikingly different information structures when issuing air quality alerts. The typical stance is more "pro-economy," but that hides substantial heterogeneity. Cities where air quality information is more salient, and preferences are more environmentally-friendly are less "pro-economy," for instance, suggesting that local factors may play a key role in the implementation and effectiveness of environmental policy."Climate Change Will Undo Benefits of the Clean Air Act", joint with Antonio Bento, Noah Miller, and Edson Severnini.
Short-Term Effects of Zero Emission Credits in Illinois and New York on Wholesale Power Market and Emissions Outcomes, joint with Lynne Kiesling.
"Public Health or the Economy? Evidence from Air Pollution Action Days across U.S. Cities,” joint with Edson Severnini and Sarah Taylor.