The Effect of Military Base Closures on Young Adults

(R&R at The Scandinavian Journal of Economics) 

Abstract: This study examines how young adults respond to local labor market disruptions caused by military base closures in Sweden between 1998 and 2005. Reflecting the sharp gender imbalance in military roles, the results show substantial differences in responses between men and women. Affected men increase enrollment in tertiary education, particularly when living in proximity to higher education institutions. In contrast, women experience improved labor market outcomes a few years after a closure, with higher earnings and employment rates. This suggests that the structural transformation of the local labor market, following the exit of a major male-dominated employer, benefits young women as they transition into employment in expanding sectors.

Presented at: Danish Public Choice Workshop (Aarhus, 2024); Copenhagen Education Network Workshop (2024); European Society for Population Economics (Rotterdam, 2024)

Other outlets:

• Ekonomisk Debatt (in Swedish)

• Outreach at the Department of Economics, Lund University

Parental Housing Wealth and Educational Outcomes (with Martin Nordin and James Nunn)

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between parental housing wealth and educational outcomes in Sweden, using nationwide housing transaction data linked with administrative registers. Contrary to the expectation that greater family resources enhance education, we find that increases in parental housing wealth reduce the likelihood of early tertiary enrollment. A one–standard deviation larger increase during childhood is associated with a 1.3 percent lower probability of enrollment at age 21. However, the effect reflects a postponement rather than a permanent reduction: within a few years, educational attainment converges. We find no evidence that neighborhood-level trends or direct financial mechanisms account for these effects. Instead, the patterns are consistent with behavioral channels, suggesting that higher parental wealth strengthens the perceived family safety net, reduces academic pressure, and delays the transition into higher education.

Presented at: Nordic Public Policy Symposium (Copenhagen, 2024); Workshop on Wealth Inequality, Wealth Accumulation, and Public Policy (Tampere, 2025) ; IFN Brown bag (Stockholm, 2025); Institute for Housing and Urban Research (Uppsala, 2025); Brown bag seminar (Lund, 2025)

Rural Retrenchment and Marginalization in Sweden? Evidence from Employment Registers and Survey Data (Population, Space and Place) with Andreas Bergh and Emanuel Wittberg 

Abstract: Debates about spatial inequality and rural discontent often invoke cutbacks of the public sector as a key factor in explaining politicaland social divides. Covering the period from 1993 to 2023, we use register‐based employment data and citizen surveys to study publicemployment, as well as trust in and satisfaction with public services across five types of municipalities, ranging from metropolitan tovery sparse rural areas. By combining data on education and employer, we maximize comparability over time despite changingclassification and the growth of private, publicly funded providers of welfare services. While total public employment has declined, thedecline is not greater in rural municipalities. Employment per capita in healthcare and education has grown, more so in ruralmunicipalities. The latter trend is partly but not entirely explained by population decline. On the other hand, functions of the night‐watchman state have contracted, disproportionately affecting sparsely populated regions. Survey evidence indicates that trust andsatisfaction with public services have held steady or improved in rural municipalities, diverging from downward trends in metro-politan areas. These results complicate dominant narratives of rural marginalization and retrenchment.

Presented at: Urban-Rural Differences in the Nordic Welfare States (Malmö, 2023)

E-scooters and Traffic Accidents: Evidence from Firm-Level Usage Data and a Staggered Rollout in Swedish Cities  (with Andreas Bergh, Adrian Mehic, Joakim Wernberg)

Abstract: This paper examines the impact of shared e-scooter services on traffic accidents in Swedish cities. We combine firm-level data on e-scooter usage with detailed accident records to estimate causal effects from the staggered rollout of services across 16 cities between 2018 and 2022. Our results indicate that the introduction of e-scooters leads to a short-term increase of around 10 percent in total traffic accidents during the first two quarters after entry. However, this effect dissipates within one year, despite continued growth in e-scooter usage, suggesting an adaptation among road users. The short-run rise in accidents is driven primarily by e-scooter-related incidents, with minor spillovers to pedestrians and bicyclists.

The Effect of Left-Wing Party Control: Evidence from Swedish Local Governments

Abstract: This study estimates the causal effect of having left-wing majority and left-wing rule on a set of economic and policy outcomes by using panel data of Swedish local governments between 1995 and 2021. By exploiting the discontinuous party control change at 50% of the mandate share, left-wing majority is as good as randomly assigned to observations close to the threshold. The findings suggest a change in policy-related outcomes when left-wing parties reach power; an increase in immigration, tax revenue, and public employment, but no clear change in where public spending is allocated. Private sector outcomes, such as business climate and private sector employment are unaffected. Being in rule is more decisive than merely achieving a majority of mandates suggesting that cooperation within the block is key to reach political change . Finally, if the party constellation of left wing governments leans more to the left, rather than centre left, the effects are greater which conflicts with the median voter theorem.

Presented at: Danish Public Choice Workshop (Copenhagen, 2023)