Mitton, L., Vella, M., Popova, D. and M. Richiardi (2026). Trends in Child Benefit take-up in the UK since 2008. CeMPA Working Paper 5/26, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/cempa/cempa5-26
Abstract:
In April 2013, a significant change to Child Benefit (CB) was introduced in the UK: it switched from a universal benefit to a targeted benefit. The new High Income Child Benefit Charge (HICBC) required families to repay some or all of their Child Benefit via the tax system if either partner’s income exceeded £50,000 in a given tax year. This offers the unique opportunity of a ‘natural experiment’ to test the differences in take-up between a universal and a targeted benefit. While attention has focused on the HICBC’s potential disincentive effects on take-up, little is known about how take-up has evolved among lower-income families unaffected by the policy. Using data from nationally representative income surveys from 2008 to 2023 and employing an alternative methodology to that used in official statistics, this study estimates Child Benefit take-up trends. We find that following the introduction of targeting, take-up has declined significantly even among families not subject to the HICBC. We conclude that since the introduction of HICBC, families have incurred substantial cumulative income losses relative to potential entitlement, with the largest proportional losses seen among one-child households with two or more adults. Although this analysis does not establish causality, the findings are consistent with a broader, negative impact of the HICBC reform on the visibility, perceived value, and ultimately the take-up of Child Benefit, even among those not directly targeted by the policy. This case study provides insights and evidence relevant to policymakers considering similar proposals.
Popova, D. Vella, M., Mitton, L. and M. Richiardi (2026). Unclaimed Support: Changes in the Take-Up of Means-tested Benefits in the UK since 2008. CeMPA Working Paper 6/26, Institute for Social and Economic Research, University of Essex. https://www.iser.essex.ac.uk/research/publications/working-papers/cempa/cempa6-26
Abstract:
Non-take-up of social benefits occurs when eligible individuals or households fail to claim welfare support to which they are entitled. This paper provides new estimates of take-up for major UK benefits between 2008 and 2023, including Child Benefit, Pension Credit, and Universal Credit together with the legacy benefits it replaced. Using Family Resources Survey data combined with the UKMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model, we reconstruct eligibility and compare simulated entitlement with reported receipt to estimate take-up rates. The results show substantial and persistent non-take-up across all programmes. Child Benefit maintains relatively high participation but declines following the introduction of the High Income Child Benefit Charge. Take-up of working-age means-tested support is considerably lower and gradually declines during the Universal Credit rollout, with only a temporary increase during the COVID-19 pandemic. Non-claiming is more common among higher-income and more educated eligible households, while disadvantaged groups claim more consistently, suggesting a degree of self-screening. A decomposition analysis shows that changes in population composition over the period of 2008-2013 would predict higher take-up; the observed decline is likely driven by behavioural or institutional factors affecting claiming incentives.
Popova, D., Richiardi, M. and J. van de Ven (2026). From Pandemic to Cost-of-Living Crisis: The Distributional Impact of UK Tax and Benefit Policies, 2019-2023. CeMPA Working Paper 1/26. https://www.microsimulation.ac.uk/publications/publication-588903/
Abstract:
This paper analyses how UK tax-benefit policies shaped poverty, inequality, and living standards between 2019 and 2023, spanning the COVID-19 shock and the subsequent cost-of-living crisis. Using the UKMOD tax-benefit microsimulation model combined with imputed household consumption data, we assess distributional outcomes for both disposable and consumable income, the latter accounting for indirect taxes. We apply fiscal incidence and decomposition techniques to distinguish the effects of changes in market incomes and population characteristics from discretionary policy choices. We find that market income inequality and poverty increased over the period, but the UK tax-benefit system became more redistributive. Disposable income inequality declined and the poverty-reducing impact of taxes and transfers strengthened during and after the pandemic. Regressive indirect taxes, however, weaken the gains achieved through direct redistribution, particularly for low-income households. Decomposition results show that real consumable incomes rose for the bottom three deciles, despite falling market incomes, due to uprated means-tested benefits and targeted cost-of-living payments. In contrast, middle- and higher-income households experienced sizeable real losses, driven mainly by policy effects rather than labour market developments. Frozen income tax thresholds generated substantial fiscal drag, reduced the progressivity of personal income tax, and accounted for most income losses outside the bottom of the distribution. Overall, policy changes over 2019 to 2023 protected low-income households in relative terms while reducing real living standards across much of the rest of the distribution through implicit fiscal consolidation.
Avram, S., Doorley, K., Keane, C. and D. Popova (2025). How has gender income inequality in Ireland and the UK changed and why? CEMPA Working Paper 6/25. https://www.microsimulation.ac.uk/publications/publication-588565/
Abstract:
We examine the evolution of the gender income gap in UK and Ireland between 2008 and 2019 by income decile and decompose it to evaluate the relative importance of gender differences in working hours, self-employment, and hourly pay, as well as the redistributive effect of the tax-benefit system. We find that the biggest driver of the gender income gap in both countries is gender differences in employment/self-employment and working hours. These differences are especially large in the lower half of the income distribution, but their gradual reduction over the period we study led to a closing of the income gap in both countries. In contrast, the gender gap in hourly wages is more important in the middle and upper middle part of the income distribution, especially in the UK. The redistributive effect of the tax-benefit system by gender has fallen in the UK due to austerity measures but slightly increased in Ireland, primarily as a result of increased taxation. Further policy initiatives to align the employment rate and work hours of men and women in both countries could substantially reduce the gender gap in income in the future.
Avram, S., D. Popova and I. Rioboo (2025) Gender income inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe: the role of government response. CeMPA Working Paper 7/25. https://www.microsimulation.ac.uk/publications/publication-588599/
Abstract:
This study provides the first comparative analysis of how COVID-19 policy responses influenced gender income inequality across 28 European countries. Using a quasi-experimental approach that combines microsimulation and nowcasting techniques, we construct counterfactual scenarios to estimate the net effects of pandemic-related labor market shocks and government interventions on the incomes of women and men. By employing a gender-sensitive measure of disposable income, we address intra-household inequality often overlooked in distributional research. Our findings show that although both working age men and women experienced income losses in 2020, these were significantly mitigated by tax-benefit policies. Men, on average, benefitted more from furlough due to greater employment losses and higher pre-pandemic earnings, while women benefitted from the progressive design of other policy measures. On average, the ratio of women’s to men’s disposable incomes rose slightly, indicating a temporary narrowing of the gender income gap. These results highlight the equalizing role of expansive social protection during pandemic and underscore the importance of gender-aware policy analysis.