Publication List

 Peer-Reviewed Journals:

Published:

• Ruiz, W.; Spinola, D.; Villalba, M.A. (2025). Innovation dynamics in contrasting agri-food systems: an agent-based simulation of STI policies in Colombian coffee and avocado chains. Innovation and Development, 1–24. Forthcoming.

• Villalba, M.A.; Spinola, D.; Ruiz, W. (2025). Unlocking Coevolution and Inclusive Innovations: Dynamics of Marginalised Agents in Immature Innovation Systems. Review of Evolutionary Political Economy 6, 234–265 . Forthcoming.

• Calzada, B.; Spinola, D. (2025). Determinants of Export Diversification in Resource-Dependent Economies: The Role of Product Relatedness and Macroeconomic Conditions. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 74, p. 578-590.

• Botta, A.; Spinola, D.; Yajima, G.; Porcile, G. (2025). Pasinetti, Debt Sustainability and (Green) Structural Change at the Time of Global Finance: An Emerging and Developing Countries’ Perspective.  Review of Keynesian Economics, 13(2). p.216-248.

• Magacho, G.; Spinola, D. (2024) Supply and demand in Kaldorian growth models: a proposal for dynamic adjustment. Review of Political Economy. 36(4), 1613-1634. 

• Ganguly, A.; Spinola, D. (2024) Growth and Distribution regimes under Global Value Chains: Diversification, Integration and Uneven Development. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 70, 634-649.

• Nomaler, Ö.; Spinola, D.; Verspagen, B. (2024). Demand-led Industrialisation Policy in a Dual-sector Small Balance of Payments Constrained Economy. Metroeconomica, 75 (3). 339-376.

• Botta, A.; Porcile, G.; Spinola, D.; Yajima, G.T. (2023). Financial integration, productive development and fiscal policy space in developing countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 66, 175-188.

• Porcile, G., Spinola, D., & Yajima, G.. (2023). Growth trajectories and political economy in a Structuralist open economy model. Review of Keynesian Economics. 11(3), 350-376. 

• Spinola, D. (2023) Instability Constraints and Development Traps: An Empirical Analysis of Growth Cycles and Economic Volatility in Latin America. Cepal Review, 139, 7-27.

• Nomaler, Ö.; Spinola, D.; Verspagen, B. (2021). R&D-Based Economic Growth in a Supermultiplier Model. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 59, 1-19.

• Spinola, D. (2021). The La Marca Model Revisited: Structuralist Goodwin Cycles with Evolutionary Supply Side and Balance of Payments Constraints. Metroeconomica, 72 (1). 189-212.

• Spinola, D. (2020). Uneven development and the balance of payments constrained model: Terms of trade, economic cycles, and productivity catching-up. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 54, 220–232.

• Porcile, G. & Spinola, D. (2018). Natural, effective and BOP-constrained rates of growth: Adjustment mechanisms and closure equations. PSL Quarterly Review. Vol 71, No 285. 

• Porcile, G. & Spinola, D. (2018). Growth models, Kaldorian regimes and the Thirlwall Law: some economic adjustments. Brazilian Keynesian Review. Vol. 4. No 1.

Published Books:

• Nomaler Ö., Spinola D., Verspagen B. (2025). Evolutionary Selection and Keynes–Schumpeter Macroeconomics. Cambridge University Press.

• Spinola, D. (2020). Cycles, economic structures and external constraints: a structuralist study on the causes of economic volatility in Latin America. Global Academic Press. ProefschriftMaken Maastricht.

Book Chapters:

• Spinola, D. (2021). A Structuralist Interpretation to the Brazilian Crisis: The Behavior of Effective, Natural, and Balance-of-Payments-Constrained Growth Rates. In: Prates, D. & Terra, F. Brazil Post-Recession. Ed. UFABC. Sao Paulo, Brazil.   

• Spinola, D. (2017) Productive Structure in the Neo-Kaleckian Model of Growth and Distribution: Simulations to the Brazilian Economy. In: The New Brazilian Economy (pp. 273-288). Palgrave Macmillan, New York.

Working Papers (Under Review)

• Magacho, Guilherme and Spinola, Danilo Integrating Ecological, Productive, and Macrofinancial Spheres with ESTEEM: A System Dynamics Framework to Assess Brazil’s Transformation Plan. Center for Applied Finance and Economics. Birmingham City University. Working paper n.37.

• Marconi, N.; Spinola, D.; Porto, T.; Araujo, E. (2024). Influence of the Sectoral Composition of Production on Occupational and Sectoral Wage Structures: Evidence from Multiple Economies.  UNU-MERIT Working Paper 023/2024.

• Avenyo, E.; Spinola, D.; Tregenna, F. (2024). Chinese Manufacturing Import Penetration and Firm Performance: Evidence from Belt and Road Initiative Countries. SARChi Working Paper Series (University of Johannesburg). WP 2024-06. 

• Foster-McGregor, N.; Spinola, D. (2024). An Empirical Study of the Relationship between Exchange Rate Misalignments, Economic Complexity and Export Diversification. SARChi Working Paper Series (University of Johannesburg). WP 2024-05.

• Magacho, G.; Godin, A.; Spinola, D.; Yilmaz, D. (2024). Recycling carbon taxes for reindustrialisation: addressing structural rigidity and financialisation in natural resource exporting countries. Agence Française de Développement. Research Paper n. 311. 

• Andreoni, A.; Anzolin, A.; Labrunie, M.; Spinola, D. (2023). Unveiling structure and dynamics of global digital production technology networks: A new digital technology classification and network analysis based on trade data. UNU-MERIT Working Paper 044/2023.

• Kaushik, R.; Paul, S.B.; Spinola, D. (2023). Impact of prestigious-STEM Education of corporate board members on innovation effort: Evidence from India. UNU-MERIT Working Paper 014/2023.

• Calzada, B. & Spinola, D. (2022). Complexity and Productive Structure in Latin America: A Network Analysis of Trade Patterns. Center for Applied Finance and Economics. Birmingham City University. Working paper n.16. 

• Spinola, D.; Lamperti, F.; Mohnen, P.; Roventini, A.; Treibich, T. Private R&D collaboration, innovation and competition - an agent-based exploration. Growinpro Project. 2021.

• Spinola, D. (2020) Debating the Thirlwall Model: VECM analysis of the Balance of Payments for Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico. UNU-MERIT Working Paper 001/2020.

• Foster-McGregor, N.; Spinola, D.; and Verspagen, B. (2017). Developments in Manufacturing Unit Values Across Countries. Industrial Development Report 2018. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Vienna.

• Foster-McGregor, N.; Spinola, D.; and Verspagen, B. (2017) On the Development and Impact of Commodity Prices and Cycles. Industrial Development Report 2018. United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). Vienna.