Commodity prices and the US Dollar, 2025, Journal of International Economics, (working paper version available here), [Replication files]
The shape of business cycles: a cross-country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory, 2024, Kyklos, with Emanuel Kohlscheen and Richhild Moessner
International Spillovers of Forward Guidance Shocks, 2022, Journal of Applied Econometrics, with Callum Jones and Mariano Kulish
Global growth: drivers and post-pandemic prospects, 2022, BIS Quarterly Review, with Gabriela Nodari and Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul.
How much stress could Covid put on corporate credit? Evidence using sectoral data, 2021, BIS Quarterly Review, with Benoit Mojon and Christian Schmieder. Press report - Forbes
What Comes Next? Scenarios for the Recovery, 2020, Covid Economics (previously published as BIS Working Papers No 898)
MARTIN has its place: A macroeconometric model of the Australian economy, 2020, The Economic Record, with many co-authors (working paper version available here, replication files available here)
Wealth and consumption in Australia, 2020, Australian Economic Review, with Diego May and Gabriela Nodari - Video of public lecture March 2019
The cyclical behaviour of the labour force participation rate in Australia, 2019, Australian Economic Review, with Richard Evans and Angus Moore
Same Spain, less pain?, 2018, European Economic Review, with Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez
Unprecedented changes in the terms of trade, 2017, Journal of International Economics, with Mariano Kulish
A multi-sector model of the Australian economy, 2016, The Economic Record, with Penelope Smith and Jamie Hall - Winner of the Economics Society of Australia's Trevor Swan Prize for most important contribution to Australian public policy.
A state-space approach to Australian gross domestic product measurement, 2015, Australian Economic Review, with Richard Finlay and David Lancaster
Exchange rate movements and the Australian Economy, 2015, Economic Modelling, with Joseph Manalo and Dilhan Perera
The yield curve in a small open economy, 2011, Journal of International Economics, with Mariano Kulish
Inflation cycles: evidence from international data, 2025, BIS Working Papers No. 1264, with Alberto Americo, Douglas Araujo, Johannes Damp, Sjur Nilsen, Rafael Schmidt and Christian Schmieder
Generative AI and labour productivity: a field experiment on coding, 2024, BIS Working Papers No. 1208, with Leonardo Gambacorta, Han Qiu and Shuo Shan
The impact of artificial intelligence on output and inflation, 2024, BIS Working Papers No. 1179, with Inaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr and Leonardo Gambacorta
Monetary policy frameworks away from the ELB, 2023, BIS Working Papers No. 1156
The natural interest rate in China, 2021, BIS Working Papers No. 949, with Sun Guofeng
The slowdown in US productivity growth: breaks and beliefs, 2017, with Rachael McCririck [Previously circulated as RBA Research Discussion Paper 2016-08]
Stochastic terms of trade volatility in small open economies, 2013, RBA Research Discussion Paper 2013-10, with Patricia Gomez-Gonzalez
Terms of trade shocks and imperfect information, 2013, RBA Research Discussion Paper 2013-09
Macroeconomic volatility and terms of trade shocks, 2009, RBA Research Discussion Paper 2009-05, with Dan Andrews
A sectoral model of the Australian economy, 2008, RBA Research Discussion Paper 2008-01, with Jeremy Lawson