The Fiscal Multiplier in Presence of Unconventional Monetary Policy: Evidence for 17 OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 147, 2025, 107063.
Fiscal Forecast Errors in the Eurozone: The Influence of Independent Fiscal Institutions (IFIs) and Monetary Policy. Hacienda Pública Española/Review of Public Economics, 2025, 119-156 (together with A.N. Lorenti, M. Angoitia Grijalba, R. Mora-Ruano).
Quasi-experimental evidence on Spanish VAT cuts during economic shocks. International Review of Economics and Finance, 2025 (together with Javier Baquero, Julimar Da Silva, and Ernesto Rodríguez).
Do Monetary Policy Shocks Affect Output, Employment, and Prices? Meta-analyses on the Effects of Conventional Monetary Policy (with Matthias Enzinger, Sebastian Gechert, Philipp Heimberger, and Franz Prante). [Open Science Framework registration] [OSF preprint] [Submitted]
The Weight of History: Diagnosing Identification in Long-Run Military Spending Multipliers (with Rubén Gonzálvez). [WP] [Submitted]
Consumption Responses to the Minimum Wage in Spain (with Luis Cárdenas, Paloma Villanueva, and Rubén Gonzálvez).
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Distributional Effect on Income. (with Rubén Gonzálvez).
Abstract:
We use Personal Income Tax Panel, a representative sample of Spanish households with all the information on their administrative income, and taxes variables, in addition to other information derived from themselves monitored over the 1999-2016 period. The dataset represents the household-level income distribution. We merge income information with three “narrative” fiscal shocks and the “high-frequency” approach to account for monetary policy shocks. Then, we estimate the effects of fiscal policy and monetary policy shocks on income via local projections. The paper provides new evidence on the channels through which macro policies affect the heterogeneity response of income along several dimensions: firstly, in terms of income distribution, comparing high- and low-income households with the middle-income households; secondly, based on the source of income, including total, labor, and capital income responses. Finally, we assess which macro policy is more effective at reducing income inequality. We can document: i) expansionary monetary shocks are U-shaped: increase income of low- and high-income individuals relative to middle-income individuals. ii) Expansionary fiscal shocks are inverted-S shape: meaning it affects lower-income individuals more strongly, while higher-income individuals are not affected. iii) Fiscal policy reduces inequality in all measures. iv) Monetary policy increases inequality (even though it reduces other inequality measures). v) Fiscal policy should be targeted to low-income individuals while central banks should consider income distributional effects in its monetary policy design.
Análisis de género en la revista Hacienda Pública Española (2020) (in Spanish), with Ana Abeledo Gracia and Rubén Gonzálvez Salmerón. In Papeles de trabajo del Instituto de Estudios Fiscales. Serie economía, Nº 5, 1-18.