Journal Publications
Urban Regeneration Projects and Crime: Evidence from Glasgow (with Gennaro Rossi), Journal of Economic Geography, December 2023 [Final Version][Online Appendix]
Early-Years Multi-Grade Classes and Pupil Attainment (with Markus Gehrsitz, Stuart McIntyre, Gennaro Rossi and Graeme Roy), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, May 2023 [Final Version] [Code] [Summary] Media Coverage: TES, SCADR Data Insights, BBC Scotland, The Times
The Impact of Housing Subsidy Cuts on the Labour Market Outcomes of Claimants: Evidence from England, Journal of Housing Economics, August 2022 [Final Version]
Limiting the Distortionary Effects of Transaction Taxes: Scottish Stamp Duty after the Mirrlees Review, Fiscal Studies, May 2021 [Final Version] [Online Appendix] [Blog]
A Case Study on Germany's Aviation Tax Using the Synthetic Control Approach, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 126, August 2019 [Final Version] [Online Appendix]
Working Papers
Forced Migration and Local Economic Development: Evidence from Postwar Hungary (with Ross Mckenzie)
(Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics)
We investigate the effects of forced migration on sending economies using the post-WW2 expulsion of German minorities from Hungary as a natural experiment. We combine historical and contemporary data sources to show that, while towns heavily affected by the expulsions were quite similar to other areas in terms of economic activity and labour market composition before the war, the forced migrations led to lasting reductions in economic activity, and an increasing reliance on agricultural labour. We further show long-term negative correlations between forced migration and local trust levels, suggesting persistent differences in the local social fabric. Our analysis reveals that forced migration can cause lasting regional inequalities in sending economies.
Marijuana Legalisation and Mental Health (with Otto Lenhart, Jonathan Norris and Agnese Romiti)
This study examines the effects of U.S. state-level marijuana policies on mental health. Using data from three nationally representative data sets and estimating difference-in-differences models that account for the staggered implementation of both medical and recreational marijuana legislation, we evaluate the impact on marijuana use as well as two measures of mental distress. We show that marijuana laws have positive effects on marijuana use, but find no evidence for any effect on mental health on average. Nonetheless, null aggregate effects mask sharp heterogeneities across the age distribution. Our findings show that elderly individuals (age 60 and older) benefit from medical marijuana legalization in terms of better mental health, whereas legalizing recreational marijuana produces negative mental health effects for younger individuals (below age 35). The effects of medical marijuana legislation are driven by elderly people with pre-existing chronic health conditions, whereas those of recreational marijuana legislation are driven by younger and relatively healthy individuals. Furthermore, results are stronger for women than for men.
Media coverage: VoxEU
(Revise and Resubmit, Economics of Education Review)
The importance of universal free school meals (UFSM) provision has been the subject of significant debate over the past decade. In this study we examine the effect of UFSM policies on school attendance, health-related absence and students’ misbehaviour. We leverage UFSM implementation in Scotland where all pupils in the first three grades of primary schools became automatically entitled to claim free meals, regardless of their households’ financial circumstances. We estimate a difference-in-differences model with variation in treatment intensity and find, in spite of a large increase in uptakes, that attendance and school discipline have not improved significantly. These estimates are close to zero and precisely estimated. We also show that effect heterogeneity does not explain the null effect.
In this article we study the effects of permanent school closures on crime. We leverage the closure of over 300 schools in Scotland between the school years 2006/07 and 2018/19, and employ a staggered difference-in-differences design on a matched sample. We find that neighbourhoods affected by school closures experience a reduction in crime of about 9% of a standard deviation, relative to areas where schools remained open. This effect is mainly driven by a reduction in violent and property crimes. We provide evidence on several mechanisms explaining the negative crime effect, such as changes in neighbourhood composition and reductions in school-level segregation.