Journal Publications
Urban Regeneration Projects and Crime: Evidence from Glasgow (with Gennaro Rossi), Journal of Economic Geography, December 2023 [Final Version][Online Appendix]
Early-Years Multi-Grade Classes and Pupil Attainment (with Markus Gehrsitz, Stuart McIntyre, Gennaro Rossi and Graeme Roy), Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, May 2023 [Final Version] [Code] [Summary] Media Coverage: TES, SCADR Data Insights, BBC Scotland, The Times
The Impact of Housing Subsidy Cuts on the Labour Market Outcomes of Claimants: Evidence from England, Journal of Housing Economics, August 2022 [Final Version]
Limiting the Distortionary Effects of Transaction Taxes: Scottish Stamp Duty after the Mirrlees Review, Fiscal Studies, May 2021 [Final Version] [Online Appendix] [Blog]
A Case Study on Germany's Aviation Tax Using the Synthetic Control Approach, Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 126, August 2019 [Final Version] [Online Appendix]
Working Papers
Why do some economies recover from armed conflict much better than others? We provide evidence that political accountability determines whether post-conflict societies realize the peace dividend. We study Cambodia, where a nationwide landmine clearance campaign created large local potential surpluses by freeing arable land and reducing victimization by 48%. Whether these surpluses translate into realized development depends on accountability. Using a staggered difference-in-differences strategy, we show that clearance raises the probability of any nightlights by 7.3 percentage points in areas with strong pre-existing demand for checks and balances on political elites. Where such demand is weak, the effect is close to zero. Elite capture explains the divergence. In low-accountability areas, clearance increases land concessions, deforestation, land disputes, and labor displacement. Where accountability is strong, clearance instead raises household consumption by 22%. Post-conflict recovery requires not just the existence of a peace dividend but political constraints on its capture.
Recreational marijuana legalization (RML) eases adult access, but users at different ages face different consequences. Using difference-in-differences imputation on state-year-age-group panels from 2003 to 2024, we estimate RML effects on mental health, behavior, and labor markets. Young adults increase marijuana use more than older adults following RMLs. The average mental health effect is null, masking a sharp age asymmetry. Adults under 25 report more poor mental health days, exercise less, and experience more long-term unemployment. Adults over 50 report less joint pain, exercise more, and show income gains. Two age-specific channels explain the pattern: neurodevelopment and pain management.
Media coverage: VoxEU
School closures occur regularly, driven by declining performance, depopulation, and building safety concerns, yet little is known about their effect on local crime. We study the impact of permanent school closures on neighbourhood crime in Scotland between 2006/07 and 2018/19, using a staggered difference-in-differences design. Our results show that affected neighbourhoods experience a crime reduction of about 10% of a standard deviation relative to areas where schools remained open, driven mainly by falls in vandalism and property crimes. We provide evidence on several mechanisms, including changes in neighbourhood composition and displacement of crime-prone youth.
Work in Progress
From Emergency Rooms to Safer Streets: Evaluating the Impact of the Navigator Programme on Crime (with Otto Lenhart, Agnese Romiti, and Gennaro Rossi)