I study the effect of a conditional cash transfer program on child marriage in rural Mexico and show that it led to a significant increase in early marriage. Using the program’s random assignment and the staggered implementation, I find that the program doubled the marriage rates for girls without impacting boys. To understand the mechanisms behind this result, I isolate the program’s income effect by looking at two populations that were likely affected by the income component of the program alone. In both, I find evidence that the program’s income effect was a driver for the increase in child marriage.
Data collection ongoing.
Pilot ongoing.