Tesla is a Smartcar Company, a Global Energy Company, and an Integrated Platform Company

Just as Steve Jobs and Apple were uniquely positioned to capture the lion's share of profits during the mobile smartphone phase of the post-PC era, Elon Musk and Tesla are similarly positioned to do the same during the mobile smartcar phase of the electrification of things (EoT) era.

Tesla Device Value Chain for the Electrification of Things (EoT) Era

Unlike Apple, which initially dominated post-PC hardware device markets but eventually lost ground to Google in post-PC apps and cloud service markets, Tesla under the ludicrously aggressive leadership of Musk is leaving neither the global EoT device nor the EoT service markets up for grabs.

Tesla Device Value Chain for the Electrification of Things Era

When Apple and Steve Jobs released the iPhone in 2007, many industry, financial, and technology analysts aptly acknowledged its innovative touch screen, but nevertheless incorrectly concluded it was mostly a toy without a real future, especially given its lack of keys. Similarly, when Tesla and Elon Musk released the Telsa Roadster in 2008, many analysts also incorrectly believed that it was just an expensive toy and could never evolve into a great family sedan, especially given its lack of range and roominess. Apple's stock rose almost six times between the launch of the original iPhone and the 2012 iPhone 5 smartphone. Telsa' stock rose more than five times between the company's IPO and the release of the 2013 Model S smartcar, a high-performance family sedan with room for five adults and range of up to 265 miles.

Noting the similarities between the equity trajectories of Apple and Tesla, we immediately began the process of applying the Cyclefund Strategic Investment Framework to Tesla in order to evaluate its disruptive growth potential in the emerging EoT space, a subset of the booming Internet of Things (IoT) market.

Given the recent decline in Tesla's stock due to its proposed acquisition of Solar City and the unfortunate traffic accidents potentially related to its cutting edge semi-driverless vehicle feature known as Tesla Autopilot, we moved quickly to expedite case study development by leveraging prior successful applications of the framework to strategic investments in Apple in 2013 and Google in 2015 to see what may be in store for Tesla between now and 2025.

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Mark Cummings PhD

Chief Investment Strategist


Oakdale, California