Research

Current Interests and expertise

Regulation of financial intermediaries; government financial management; leadership; and corporate investments in liquid assets

Published and Accepted Papers

• The Politics of Bank Failures: Evidence from Emerging Markets (with Serdar Dinc), The Quarterly Journal of Economics 120 (2005), 1413-1444. [PUB, PDF, SSRN] 

• Too Many to Fail? Evidence of Regulatory Forbearance When the Banking Sector is Weak (with Serdar Dinc), The Review of Financial Studies 24 (2011), 1378-1405. [PUB, PDF, SSRN] 

• The Politics of Government Financial Management: Evidence from State Bonds, Journal of Monetary Economics 90 (2017), 158-175. [PUB, PDF, SSRN, SSRN]

• Economic Leadership and Growth, Journal of Monetary Economics 116 (2020), 298-333. [PUB, PDF, SSRN] 

Working Papers

• Do Investors in Financial Markets Anticipate Economic Growth? Evidence from Government Elections. [PDF, SSRN]

• Practice beyond Education: Legal Leaders and Institutions, Revise and Resubmit. Presented at the 2022 AEA Annual Meeting. [PDF, Slides]

• Export Risk and Currency Returns. Presented at the 2023 NBER Summer Institute. [PDF, SSRN, Slides]

• Related Banks and Investment Efficiency within Business Groups (with Deniz Yavuz). [PDF, SSRN] 

• Non-Bayesian Learning, Paranoid Suspicion, and Antagonistic Executives (with Xu Weibiao). [PDF, SSRN]

• Marketable Securities: Storage or Investment? [SSRN] 

• The Lure of the Slant and the Banality of the Conservative. [SSRN]  

Work in Progress

• Trade Shocks.

• Corporate Policies.

Book Chapters

• The Cash-Flow Risk of Corporate Market Investments. In: Advances in Financial Risk Management—Corporates, Intermediaries and Portfolios, Batten, Jonathan A.; MacKay, Peter; Wagner, Niklas (Eds.) Palgrave Advances in Risk Management. London: Palgrave Macmillan. [PUB]