Work from Home

Authors:     Alex Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan, Tristan Caplan

Latest Draft:     12/2024 

Replication Package and RPS Data

Abstract.     This paper documents the prevalence of work from home (WFH) in six U.S. data sets. These surveys measure WFH using different questions, reference periods, samples, and survey collection methods. Once we construct samples and WFH measures that are comparable across surveys, all surveys broadly agree about the trajectory of aggregate WFH since the Covid-19 outbreak. The most important source of disagreement in the level of WFH across surveys is in WFH by self-employed workers; by contrast, surveys closely agree on rates of WFH among employees. All surveys agree that in 2024 WFH remains substantially above pre-pandemic levels. We also highlight that full-time WFH drove most of the increase in aggregate WFH during and after the pandemic but part-time WFH has become a more significant contributor since 2022. Finally, we validate findings from survey data by comparing self-reported commuting behavior to cellphone geolocation data from Google Workplace Visits.

Authors:     Alex Bick, Adam Blandin, Aidan Caplan, Tristan Caplan

Latest Draft:     12/2024 

Replication Package and RPS Data

Abstract.     This paper documents heterogeneity in work from home (WFH) across six U.S. data sets. These surveys agree that pre-pandemic differences in WFH rates by sex, education, and state of residence expanded following the Covid-19 outbreak. The surveys also show similar post-pandemic trends in WFH by firm size and industry. We show that an industry's WFH potential was highly correlated with actual WFH during the first year or two of the Covid-19 pandemic, but that this correlation was much weaker before and after the pandemic, suggesting that WFH potential is a necessary but not sufficient determinant in the decision to WFH.

Authors:     Alex Bick, Adam Blandin, Hannah Rubinton, Karel Mertens

Latest Draft:     05/2024 

Press / Coverage:     Bloomberg, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis blog post

Abstract.     Interstate migration by working-age adults in the US declined substantially during the Great Recession and remained subdued through 2019. We document that interstate migration rose sharply following the 2020 Covid-19 outbreak, nearly recovering to pre-Great recession levels, and provide evidence that this reversal was primarily driven by the rise in work from home (WFH). Before the pandemic, interstate migration by WFH workers was consistently 50% higher than for commuters. Since the Covid-19 outbreak, this migration gap persisted while the WFH share tripled. Using quasi-panel data and plausibly exogenous changes in employer WFH policies, we address concerns about omitted variables or reverse causality and conclude that access to WFH induces greater interstate migration. An aggregate accounting exercise suggests that over half of the rise in interstate migration since 2019 can be accounted for by the rise in the WFH share.  Moreover, both actual WFH and pre-pandemic WFH potential, based on occupation shares, can account for a sizable share of cross-state variation in migration.

Authors:     Alex Bick, Adam Blandin, Karel Mertens

Publication:     American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics (2023) 

Press / Coverage:     AEA Feature, Bloomberg, Houston Chronicle, Business Insider,  Boston Globe, Forbes, Nielson 

Replication package and RPS Data

Abstract.     Based on novel survey data, we document the evolution of commuting behavior in the U.S. over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic. Work from home (WFH) increased sharply and persistently after the outbreak, and much more so among some workers than others. Using theory and evidence, we argue that the observed heterogeneity in WFH transitions is consistent with potentially more permanent changes to work arrangements in some occupations, and not just temporary substitution in response to greater health risks. Consistent with increased WFH adoption, many more---especially higher-educated---workers expect to WFH in the future.