The Thera Theory is Outdated and Unstable

The 1600 BCE eruption of volcano Thera brought an end to civilization in the city of Akrotiri on modern-day Santorini, but its effects on the island of modern-day Crete have never been concretely established (Morris, Ian, and Barry B. Powell; Wilford, John Noble). At the time of the eruption, Minoan civilization flourished. Over a century after the eruption, Minoan palaces were burned; Minoan palaces were largely abandoned, except for where new Mycenaean inhabitants resided (Morris, Ian, and Barry B. Powell). Scholars have long tried to establish connections between these events, but their ideas often contain contradictory evidence and are continually challenged by new findings. The eruption of Thera is not directly responsible for the downfall of Minoan civilization; this is determined through a review of this theory’s flawed origin and the examination of Minoan pottery.

The theory that the eruption of Thera caused the destruction of Minoan civilization was established in congruence with the belief that the eruption occurred around 1450 BCE (Wilford, John Noble). Archaeological evidence shows that Minoan palaces were burned during that same century, marking the end of Minoan civilization (Morris, Ian, and Barry B. Powell). Because of this, scholars widely accepted that the collapse of Minoan society occured at the same time as the Thera eruption. The incorrect belief that these two events occurred at the same date is the fundamental framework for this correlation. 

We now know that Thera erupted in the 16th century B.C.E., not 1450 B.C.E.. In the 1980s, 70 miles from Akrotiri and on the same island, archaeologists discovered remains of a Minoan house rebuilt substantially on top of a layer of ash (Wilford, John Noble). Findings within the house indicated that the eruption occurred 150 years earlier than was believed, pushing the eruption date back to “no later than 1600 B.C.[E.]” (Wilford, John Noble). In the decades following this discovery, archaeologists placed the eruption date between 1570 and 1500 B.C.E.. The later eruption date was further supported by radiocarbon dating performed on tree rings, which placed the eruption date between 1600 and 1525 B.C.E. (Jensen, Mari N). Regardless of discrepancies between specific dates, the broad overlap within this comprehensive collection of evidence proves that the eruption of Thera occurred at or within the 16th century B.C.E.. 

Despite upheaving the original cause for the connection, the correction of the Thera eruption date did not stop scholars from maintaining a correlation between the eruption and the downfall of Minoan civilization; this correlation is still taught as highly probable in university courses today (Janko, Richard). It would be logical to assume that this is due to strong, clear evidence. However, as explored in the following paragraphs, the evidence sustaining the theory is extremely nuanced and provides no clear answer as to what caused the Minoan decline. Because of this, I find it reasonable to believe that the Thera theory’s flawed origin allowed scholars to develop a false surety in it, and that the supporting evidence cannot stand on its own.

The two leading theories for Minoan socio-economic decline following the eruption of Thera are not supported by substantial archaeological evidence. A long-standing theory asserts that the eruption of Thera was catastrophic and caused an abrupt and massive decline in Minoan society. The support that sustains this theory today comes from volcanologists who assert that the Thera eruption occurred in two waves, and produced lethal effects greater than any other volcanic explosion in human history. However, some volcanologists believe the Thera eruption was a single-phase event, and therefore far less catastrophic (Luce, J. V). A second, more modern theory suggests that the Minoans were left vulnerable by a complex cascade of effects prompted by the eruption of Thera (Driessen, Jan, and Colin F. Macdonald). In both of these cases, one would expect to find physical, archaeological evidence of a socio-economic collapse following the eruption date. 

Our inability to understand Linear A means that we must look to other archaeological evidence to determine the state of Minoan society before and after the eruption of Thera; one of the most reliable methods to look at is pottery analysis. Because we have an abundance of Greek pottery throughout classical history, it can be used to compare the socio-economic conditions of one time period to another. If Minoan civilization experienced a socio-economic collapse after the eruption of Thera, changes in pottery production will be similar to the changes in pottery production seen during another time in Greek history in which a known socio-economic collapse occurred. A period of Greek history famously known for a large socio-economic collapse is the Greek Dark Age. In our lectures, professor Janko demonstrated that before the Dark Age, Greek pottery designs were very complex. During the Dark Age, pottery designs changed dramatically in style and became much more simple (Janko, Richard). If Minoan civilization experienced a socio-economic collapse after the eruption of thera, we can expect to see a similar change in Minoan pottery. 

The differences between styles of Minoan pottery before and after the Thera eruption do not indicate any significant socio-economic change. Stylistic changes are minimal at best: decoration styles before the eruption are largely light-on-dark (Fig. 1), whereas decoration styles after the eruption are largely dark-on-light (Fig. 3) (Trentin, Summer, and Debby Sneed). Similar swirl patterns are visible in pottery both before and after the eruption (Fig. 2, Fig. 4). Pottery evidence supports neither of the aforementioned leading theories. In fact, pottery analysis fails to show evidence of any socio-economic decline. If anything, Minoan pottery increased in complexity and splendor right up until the end of its existence. 

It can be argued that archeological evidence does not clearly support the decline of Minoan civilization following the eruption of Thera. For this reason, a direct causation between the eruption of Thera and the end of Minoan civilization can be disregarded. If the Thera eruption did in fact have an effect on the collapse of Minoan civilization, it would be very complex and nuanced, for example, the “Versailles Effect” suggested to possibly be relevant in Driessen and Macdonald’s thesis published in 2020 (Driessen, Jan, and Colin F. Macdonald). This could provide an explanation that accounts for Thera’s possible cause of a natural disaster, as well as the lack of evidence for a socio-economic collapse. 

If the eruption of Thera is to be considered a possible catalyst for the collapse of Minoan civilization, it needs to be held to the same level of criticism as alternate theories of equal validity - not maintained for the sake of keeping with traditional thought. I find it appalling that scholars such as J.V. Luce defended outdated theories on the basis of “much good evidence” when that “good” evidence was being directly refuted by more advanced methods (Luce, J. V). When we stop asking new questions in favor of defending our preconceived “answers”, we inhibit discovery. I absolutely agree with Luce’s assertion that “There has recently been such concentration on the eruption date that the broader and ultimately more important historical problem of the decline of Minoan power has been somewhat neglected” (Luce, J. V). The stubborn nature of the long-held Thera theory is preventing further information about the Minoan decline from coming to light. If we want to learn more about the end of Minoan civilization, we need to look past the contentious and circular debate of Thera, and instead focus on the cause of Minoan decline holistically and objectively.