Ongoing Research

The Impact of Price, Legality, and Flavor Availability on Consumer Decisions: A Discrete Choice Analysis of Nicotine Products in an Illicit Market

Asena Caner, Belgi Turan, Berna Tarı Kasnakoğlu, Yenal Can Yiğit, Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios

[PDF]

Abstract: This study examines consumer preferences for manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes, and e-cigarettes in Türkiye, focusing on the impact of product attributes—such as price, legal status of e-cigarettes, and flavor availability—on consumer choices. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) embedded in an online survey, the research analyzes how these attributes influence decisions among Turkish adults, with a particular emphasis on the implications of regulations like e-cigarette bans. The findings reveal significant price sensitivity, both regarding the own price of products and the prices of substitute products. Additionally, the results suggest that regulatory measures, especially those targeting legal status, play a crucial role in shaping public health outcomes and consumer behavior.

The Impact of Tobacco Regulations on Smoking and Vaping

Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng

[PDF] [Online Appendix] [NBER WP] [Media: VoxEU] 

Abstract: Requiring graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packaging has become a highly contentious unresolved legal battle about the constitutionality of compelled commercial speech. We present empirical analysis that examines how GWLs impact tobacco choices and whether such impact can be attributed to changes in knowledge of risks or emotional reactions against smoking. This distinction is of crucial importance in assessing the constitutionality of GWLs. Using an online discrete choice stated preference experiment we compare tobacco choices (cigarettes, e-cigarettes, quitting) for those presented with a GWL versus the current text warning. We find the fraction of individuals choosing cigarettes to be lower and quitting higher for the GWL group. Our findings reveal that differences between groups were driven by evocation of fear/disgust. Our analysis is relevant for the current FDA legal case and other products that might involve compelled graphic warnings or disclosures. The discrete choice experiment also provides new evidence on how cigarette prices, e-cigarette prices, and policy-manipulable e-cigarette attributes such as e-cigarette warning labels and flavor availability influence choices. 

Smoking Behavior Before and After California’s Ban of Menthol Cigarettes 

Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Jacob Meyer, Nantaporn Plurphanswat, Hua Wang

[PDF] [SSRN WP]  

Abstract: California’s statewide menthol cigarette ban creates a central empirical puzzle: while legal sales of menthol cigarettes fall to near zero following the policy, menthol smoking persists. This study investigates the mechanisms underlying this divergence using retail scanner data, population-based surveys, and an original survey of California smokers. Retail data confirm that menthol cigarettes were effectively removed from the legal market, but the decline is accompanied by substitution toward non-menthol cigarettes and menthol-like products. At the same time, population-based surveys indicate no meaningful change in smoking prevalence and continued menthol use. To reconcile these patterns, we use original survey data with within-individual variation to examine behavioral responses directly. We find that 63 percent of menthol smokers continue to report menthol use after the ban, 21 percent switch to non-menthol cigarettes, and few quit. Hazard model estimates show no sustained increase in cessation. The findings indicate that the menthol ban primarily reshapes product composition rather than reducing smoking. Behavioral adjustment occurs mainly through substitution and continued access via existing illicit markets, highlighting the importance of accounting for consumer responses when evaluating product-based tobacco regulations.

presented at the Southern Economic Association annual meetings, Washington DC, November 2024.

Risk Perceptions of E-Cigarettes and the Evaluation of Evali Messaging 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025.

Tobacco Regulatory Approaches and Consumer Responses in High-income Countries: Cross-Country Comparison of Cigarette and Non-combustible Tobacco Product Choices 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025. 

Will Smokers Go Very Low? A Volumetric Choice Experiment with Very-Low-Nicotine Cigarettes 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025. 

Quantifying Internalities, with an Application to Tobacco Regulations 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025. 

Consumer Tobacco Product Choices in China: The Impact of a Ban on Flavored E-cigarettes 

presented at the International Health Economics Association World Congress, Bali, Indonesia. July 22, 2025. 

Understanding Consumer Choices: A Study of Tobacco Product Choices in Indonesia and Malaysia 

presented at the International Health Economics Association World Congress, Bali, Indonesia. July 22, 2025.

Locked Down and Lighting Up: Using COVID-19 Mobility Restrictions as an Instrument for Cigarette Stock and Smoking Intensity 

A Survey Experiment on How Legal Status of Nicotine Products Influences Young Adults' Perceptions and Choices 

under review. 

Attention and Consideration in Discrete Choice Experiments