Ongoing Research

The Impact of Price, Legality, and Flavor Availability on Consumer Decisions: A Discrete Choice Analysis of Nicotine Products in an Illicit Market

Asena Caner, Belgi Turan, Berna Tarı Kasnakoğlu, Yenal Can Yiğit, Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios

[PDF]

Abstract: This study examines consumer preferences for manufactured cigarettes, roll-your-own cigarettes, and e-cigarettes in Türkiye, focusing on the impact of product attributes—such as price, legal status of e-cigarettes, and flavor availability—on consumer choices. Using a discrete choice experiment (DCE) embedded in an online survey, the research analyzes how these attributes influence decisions among Turkish adults, with a particular emphasis on the implications of regulations like e-cigarette bans. The findings reveal significant price sensitivity, both regarding the own price of products and the prices of substitute products. Additionally, the results suggest that regulatory measures, especially those targeting legal status, play a crucial role in shaping public health outcomes and consumer behavior.

The Impact of Tobacco Regulations on Smoking and Vaping

Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng

[PDF] [Online Appendix] [NBER WP] [Media: VoxEU] 

Abstract: Requiring graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packaging has become a highly contentious unresolved legal battle about the constitutionality of compelled commercial speech. We present empirical analysis that examines how GWLs impact tobacco choices and whether such impact can be attributed to changes in knowledge of risks or emotional reactions against smoking. This distinction is of crucial importance in assessing the constitutionality of GWLs. Using an online discrete choice stated preference experiment we compare tobacco choices (cigarettes, e-cigarettes, quitting) for those presented with a GWL versus the current text warning. We find the fraction of individuals choosing cigarettes to be lower and quitting higher for the GWL group. Our findings reveal that differences between groups were driven by evocation of fear/disgust. Our analysis is relevant for the current FDA legal case and other products that might involve compelled graphic warnings or disclosures. The discrete choice experiment also provides new evidence on how cigarette prices, e-cigarette prices, and policy-manipulable e-cigarette attributes such as e-cigarette warning labels and flavor availability influence choices. 

Smoking Behavior Before and After California’s Ban of Menthol Cigarettes 

presented at the Southern Economic Association annual meetings, Washington DC, November 2024.

Risk Perceptions of E-Cigarettes and the Evaluation of Evali Messaging 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025.

Tobacco Regulatory Approaches and Consumer Responses in High-income Countries: Cross-Country Comparison of Cigarette and Non-combustible Tobacco Product Choices 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025. 

Will Smokers Go Very Low? A Volumetric Choice Experiment with Very-Low-Nicotine Cigarettes 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025. 

Quantifying Internalities, with an Application to Tobacco Regulations 

presented at the American Society of Health Economists annual meetings, Nashville TN, June 23, 2025. 

Consumer Tobacco Product Choices in China: The Impact of a Ban on Flavored E-cigarettes 

presented at the International Health Economics Association World Congress, Bali, Indonesia. July 22, 2025. 

Understanding Consumer Choices: A Study of Tobacco Product Choices in Indonesia and Malaysia 

presented at the International Health Economics Association World Congress, Bali, Indonesia. July 22, 2025.

Locked Down and Lighting Up: Using COVID-19 Mobility Restrictions as an Instrument for Cigarette Stock and Smoking Intensity 

A Survey Experiment on How Legal Status of Nicotine Products Influences Young Adults' Perceptions and Choices 

under review. 

Attention and Consideration in Discrete Choice Experiments