Ongoing Research
Working Papers
Fear or Knowledge? The Impact of Graphic Cigarette Warnings on Tobacco Product Choices
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng
[PDF] [Online Appendix] [NBER WP] [Media: VoxEU]
Abstract: Requiring graphic warning labels (GWLs) on cigarette packaging has become a highly contentious unresolved legal battle about the constitutionality of compelled commercial speech. We present empirical analysis that examines how GWLs impact tobacco choices and whether such impact can be attributed to changes in knowledge of risks or emotional reactions against smoking. This distinction is of crucial importance in assessing the constitutionality of GWLs. Using an online discrete choice stated preference experiment we compare tobacco choices (cigarettes, e-cigarettes, quitting) for those presented with a GWL versus the current text warning. We find the fraction of individuals choosing cigarettes to be lower and quitting higher for the GWL group. Our findings reveal that differences between groups were driven by evocation of fear/disgust. Our analysis is relevant for the current FDA legal case and other products that might involve compelled graphic warnings or disclosures. The discrete choice experiment also provides new evidence on how cigarette prices, e-cigarette prices, and policy-manipulable e-cigarette attributes such as e-cigarette warning labels and flavor availability influence choices.
Understanding the Demand-Side of an Illegal Market: Prohibition of Menthol Cigarettes
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng
Abstract: The Food and Drug Administration has proposed to prohibit menthol cigarettes, which are smoked by almost 19 million people. Illegal markets for menthol cigarettes could not only blunt the prohibition’s intended consequence to reduce smoking but could also lead to unintended consequences. We use data from a discrete choice experiment to estimate a mixed logit model which predicts that the prohibition of menthol cigarettes would substantially increase the fraction of menthol smokers who attempt to quit tobacco product use. However, our model also predicts a substantial potential consumer demand for illegal menthol cigarettes, especially if menthol e-cigarettes are also illegal.
Misinformation, Consumer Risk Perception, and Markets: The Impact of An Information Shock on Vaping and Smoking Cessation
Lawrence Jin, Donald Kenkel, Michael F. Lovenheim, Alan Mathios, Hua Wang
Abstract: Smoking is the leading preventable cause of death in the US Because e-cigarettes do not involve the combustion of tobacco, vaping offers the potential to prevent most of the health consequences of smoking. We study the impact of an information shock created by an outbreak of lung injuries apparently related to e-cigarettes. We use data from multiple sources: surveys of risk perceptions conducted before, during, and after the outbreak; an in-depth survey we conducted on risk perceptions and vaping and smoking behavior; and national aggregate time-series sales data. We find that after the outbreak, consumer perceptions of the riskiness of e-cigarettes sharply increased, so that in contrast to almost all experts, the majority of consumers perceive e-cigarettes to be relatively and absolutely riskier than cigarettes. From our estimated e-cigarette demand models, we conclude that the information shock reduced e-cigarette demand by about 30 percent. We also estimate that the information shock decreased the use of e-cigarettes for smoking cessation, again by about 30 percent. Over time, the reduced smoking cessation due to the information shock will in turn increase smoking-related illness and death.
Work in Progress
Just What the Doctor Ordered? The Benefits and Costs of E-cigarette Regulation in Australia
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng
Cigarette and Heated Tobacco Product Use in Japan: The Role of Flavored Products
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Grace Phillips, Revathy Suryanarayana, Hua Wang
Attention and Consideration in Discrete Choice Experiments
Donald Kenkel, Alan Mathios, Hua Wang, Sen Zeng