Q3 2026 evidence in practice | Matt Lenzie, Construction Capital | 11 October 2026
A useful planning headline should survive a check of its denominator and its unresolved records. This guide gives you three ways to make that check: watch the arithmetic, listen to the appraisal questions, then change the assumptions yourself. The media use the same frozen evidence as the research; they are not additional independent studies.
The 2-minute 57-second video on Construction Capital's YouTube channel follows the East of England counts from a known-outcome approval rate to the two extreme assignments of recorded unknowns. Watch for the point where the denominator changes. A result can change sign without any of the known decisions changing.
In Planning approvals fell. Does that change your development finance case?, Georgina works through the denominator, unknown outcomes and the distinction between regional context and project evidence. The episode lasts 5 minutes 49 seconds. A full transcript lets you revisit the reasoning without replaying the audio.
Open the interactive planning sensitivity explorer and select East of England. Use the lowest-change and highest-change controls, then switch to the combined panel. Ask one question: does every assignment imply a fall, or can the direction change?
In the frozen 5 October 2026 edition, the East of England's 19 matched authorities span -1.64 to +0.77 percentage points. The 253-authority panel spans -4.91 to -2.31 points. The first range crosses zero; the second does not. These are assignment bounds, not confidence intervals or predictions. Both periods include every recorded unknown in this exercise.
For a reproducible note, record the geography, comparison quarters, source edition, numerator, denominator and assumption about unknowns. The explorer supplies downloadable counts, derived results and Python code. It reallocates recorded unknown outcomes; it cannot recover decisions absent from the source. The seven custom groups do not form a complete national census.
Use the ICPSR planning study and backing data for decision counts and approval-rate definitions. ICPSR file downloads require sign-in. Use the separate Hugging Face planning-definition dataset for the effect of excluding records whose proposal text matches reserved matters. That second exercise changes which unit mentions are included; it is not an alternative estimate of the unknown-outcome bounds.
The London and South East Q3 report provides wider regional context. Keep that context alongside the scheme's consent, conditions, costs, sales evidence and exit plan. Construction Capital's Development Finance guide and service overview explains staged funding and the application process. Aggregate planning counts do not establish lender pricing, loan size or whether an individual project is financeable.
Authorship and reuse. Written by Matt Lenzie; media narrated by Georgina. The linked research and media share Construction Capital's authorship. Hosting does not imply endorsement or peer review. Original commentary: CC BY 4.0. Source-data rights remain with their holders; consult each component's licence.
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