Opinion Section 

This was one of the best election nights I've ever witnessed. Don Stewart was several hundred votes behind the entire night. That was, until the advance vote started to come in. Conservative Don Stewart took a nearly 500 vote lead over Liberal Leslie Church. This happened at about 4 AM local time in Toronto. Toronto-St. Paul's hasn't gone Conservative since the 1988 election. But now, it's back in the blue column. I'll do my analysis by giving each party a grade for their performances, starting with the victorious Conservatives.

Conservative- Don Stewart A+:

Conservatives were not too optimistic about winning this riding, but they did. I think any Conservative would take a win here versus a loss. Many Conservatives were expecting a narrow loss and Jenni Byrne, Pierre Poilievre's Campaign Adviser, said they were going to lose before a single vote was even counted. Just in case you hadn't seen the Conservatives won by 590 votes or percentage-wise 42.1-40.5%. The Conservatives were behind for the first 185 or so out of the 192 polls, but the advanced votes carried them to victory.

Liberal- Leslie Church F:

The Liberals HAD to win this by-election. This has been a safe Liberal seat for a while, and they had no less than a dozen cabinet ministers storm the riding. This is a terrible result for the party and exactly what couldn't happen for them. This puts into serious question Justin Trudeau's leadership. If he can't hold a riding with significant Liberal support for so many years with a really solid candidate, than what can they win? Justin Trudeau either needs to resign, or have a pretty serious reset. This was a complete failure for them.

NDP- Amrit Parhar C-:

The NDP ran a pretty lousy campaign and that showed in the results with a pretty lousy total. The NDP dropped about 5 points from 2021 and failed to win much support at all. They haven't been able to perform in past by-elections and that plauged them again tonight. They will need a strong showing to keep their seat in Winnipeg, where a by-election will soon e held. The NDP has not been able to muster up much support with the Liberals falling, and I'm not sure why they didn't put more resources into this riding. A strong 3rd place would've shown naysayers, like myself, that they are doing better than what some thought, but that didn't happen tonight.

Green- Christain Cullis B-:

Support for smaller parties like the Greens typically falls in by-elections. This one proved no exception. I'm not going to talk much about the Greens because this result isn't very relevant to them, but I will say I heard they had a solid candidate and ran a solid campaign. Unfortunately, their vote essentially split in half

In Summary:

In short, this was a disaster for the Liberals. They tried so hard to keep this riding and still failed. The Conservatives now will be wondering if, or when, Justin Trudeau resigns. This was a referendum of Justin Trudeau's leadership and, in one of the most Liberal ridings in Canada, he failed. I will have much more to say in the coming days, but I figured I'd get this out there as initial thoughts.

We recently saw Naheed Nenshi win the Alberta NDP Leadership Election. He didn’t just win by a little, he won with 86% of the vote in the first round. We will see how Nenshi governs as leader of the party. The Alberta NDP came up just short in last year’s election with Rachel Notley at the helm. But now, we may see a new direction. Many Liberal and NDP provincial parties have split from the federal party in the past. I can’t blame them, the federal NDP is no longer a party that represents mainstream positions.

The NDP in Ottawa have strayed off the path set by past NDP leaders, mainly Jack Layton and Tom Mulcair. Yes, the NDP works to represent union and working class voters. However, they have strayed away from that platform since Jagmeet Singh became leader. In my view, Jagmeet Singh could be a near lock for Leader of the Opposition if he didn’t sign on to the supply and confidence agreement. The NDP leader literally tied himself to a sinking ship, and doesn’t appear to try and untie himself anytime soon.

You may not agree with my words, but how about someone else? Angus Reid, founder of the Angus Reid Institute, said of the NDP leader, “Singh is an embarrassment to the NDP movement. Weakest leader in 50 years. Traded his leverage for …..dental care?” I couldn’t agree more. While the NDP have seen some of their ideas implemented, was it really worth it? Would they not be clearing the Liberals in most polls if they didn’t agree to an agreement? Singh and the NDP are running, like the Liberals, as the status quo in an election about change. Jagmeet Singh always criticizes Trudeau, but never actually uses his leverage to break through on an issue. The Liberals can steal the credit on dental, pharma, etc. because they are the government, and they have been taking credit. The NDP’s supposed “legislative successes” aren’t even ones they will get much credit for.

I will finish up here talking about the extremism of the NDP. In the spring, the NDP introduced a motion to the House of Commons which was completely anti-Israel. Now, it’s fair to criticize Israel, but this motion went too far. After amendments, they sold out to the Liberals and didn’t even implement the squeeze on the Liberal caucus they were hoping for. Even then, 3 Liberal MPs voted against the amended motion. That’s another example of the NDP being an unserious party. They sold out on a motion, not a bill, a motion. A motion that had no material impact on the government’s position because it was the government’s position. They constantly cover for the Liberals. They covered for Liberal Speaker Greg Fergus and have always voted against deeper dives into Liberal corruption. The self-proclaimed “worker bees” of Parliament do an awful lot for the PMO.

It’s no wonder provincial NDP parties are running away from the federal party. While everyone provincially is trying to run away from the Liberals, the federal NDP is running towards them with open arms. I’m not sure what the NDP is getting out of this agreement anymore, but I guess we’ll leave them to talk about programs they will get no credit for. Maybe they are just trying to “do the right thing” but I let out a chuckle typing that. The NDP has gone nowhere in the polls in the last year as the Liberals have tanked, and I have an idea for them to get back to somewhere a little closer to power. They need to try to move to the centre. They are pulling the Liberals to the left by essentially forcing legislation on issues they care about, but they haven’t been able to win many Liberal voters. Promising big things, but being more realistic, could be an interesting strategy to squeeze the Liberals. But, you could also consider that the centre and centre-left is already occupied by Conservatives and Liberals, but I’m not sure all of those voters are too sold by their options. I’ll leave posing a question for NDP supporters: What does the NDP offer that the Liberals, Greens, or Conservatives don’t? The NDP's commitments on healthcare and other issues largely overlap the Greens and Liberals, and I think they are losing over working-class voters to the Conservatives. Ultimately, time will tell how the NDP goes from here, but they NEED to grow in Quebec if they want a chance to gain more influence and seats in the House of Commons.

This article will go through several critical points like what’s at stake, a background of each of the main candidates, the state of the race, and the possible fallout from the results. 

What’s at stake? 

As I mentioned off the top, this is one of the most important by-elections in recent Canadian history. This seat won’t determine the balance of power in the House of Commons. But, what it will do is possibly send a clear message to the Liberals. It could also suggest that the Conservatives aren’t doing as well as the polls indicate. I think most people believe, including myself, that the results will be better for the Conservatives than last time around. The Conservatives lost this riding by a margin of 49-25, so the Liberals roughly doubled the Conservatives vote. This seat survived the Liberal massacre of 2011, which is even more proof of how strong a Liberal seat it has been. Would Justin Trudeau resign as leader if the Liberals lost this seat? Well, it is certainly possible. Althia Raj of the Toronto Star interviewed a Liberal MP who said the knives would be out if he lost the seat. It’s hard to see why the knives wouldn’t be out if the Liberals lost. This is one of the safest Liberal seats in Canada, they have no reason to lose this if they were not completely screwed as a party. Justin Trudeau’s leadership will be more vocally questioned by Liberals if they lose or come close to losing this seat. Now, I’m not sure what the bar is for Justin Trudeau to resign. I’m not sure if he still resigns if it is a single digit race, which would be much closer and signal some trouble for the party. However, we should be careful not to read too much into these results. This is an important race, but it’s been a Liberal seat since 1988 and has stayed strong for them since then.

Who are the candidates?

I won’t go through all of the 84 candidates listed on Elections Canada’s website, but I’ll go through the Liberal, Conservative, and NDP candidates. Starting off with the most likely third place NDP candidate is Amrit Parhar. She is a director at a non-profit that works with many marginalized people. My reports on the ground game of each party is entirely based on what I have seen from people on the ground on Twitter (X). I have heard that the NDP is second in lawn signs, which may not mean much, but is something to consider. That may suggest NDP supporters are more vocal and open with their support compared to Liberals, but still behind the Conservatives. We’ll next move to Don Stewart, the Conservative candidate in this riding. According to his website, he has lived in Toronto—St. Paul’s since 2016. He has worked on Bay Street for BMO and Morgan Stanley, and he currently works at the Canadian Investment Regulatory Organization which regulates capital markets. Don has been out campaigning since before this by-election was called and is hoping to capitalize on Conservative momentum nationally. The things I have seen suggests there are far more Conservative lawn signs than any other party. This may not win the Conservatives the race, but it shows energy among Tory voters. We’ll lastly talk about Leslie Church, the Liberal Party candidate. She has a pretty rich background inside the Liberal circles, most notably as the Chief of Staff to Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland. She is probably the best candidate the Liberals could have fielded for this race. I think the Liberal’s choice will benefit them in this race. The Conservatives needed someone good and they needed the Liberals to choose someone not as good. That would’ve made the race much easier, but they still have a shot.

The State of the Race

Most people seem to think this will be a very tight race. To make a call right now, about two weeks out, would be a bit irresponsible. On the one hand, I could see Liberals holding onto this seat by 5-10 points, but I could also see them winning it much closer. On the other hand, I see the results out in Newfoundland’s by-elections and think the Conservatives could very possibly flip this. I wrote about this by-election when it was called and predicted the Liberals would win narrowly. That still remains my thought and prediction, but in reality I have no idea what may happen. Anyone telling you they knew what was going to happen is lying to you. By-elections are often complete tossups. Many thought the Milton provincial election would flip to the Liberals, but the PCs ended up better off. Just because people are saying the Conservatives will win, doesn’t mean they will actually win. I still don’t know what to think or predict, but I will tweet out my final prediction on the morning of the by-election. I’m interested to see the NDP and Green vote. I suspect voters may narrow it down to the only two candidates- Leslie Church and Don Stewart. The Liberal and Conservatives combined for about ¾ of the vote last time, and I believe that will increase this time. This is a by-election, it’s about sending the government a message, not always voting for who you actually like the most.

Possible Fallout

The big question surrounding this by-election is not likely going to be answered the night of the results, but instead the days after. The question here is not necessarily who will win, but will Justin Trudeau be forced to resign earlier. If Trudeau loses with a star candidate in a very safe Liberal riding, it’s hard to see the justification for him to stay on. Liberal voters, and likely MPs, will ramp up pressure on a leadership race to occur. There may be a small tightening in the polls over the past few weeks, but it’s hard to tell when we haven’t gotten that many polls. I don’t think Justin Trudeau will resign the night of this by-election, or even the day or two after, but will reflect upon his leadership. Does he want a fall or winter leadership race? Is he going to resign before Canada Day on July 1st, just a week after? If he manages to hold on, but significantly damaged, it will still be tough for him to be untouched. He’s getting less and less popular by the day, but I don’t think he can really do anything to change that. I’m not so sure, however, that a leadership race will fix any of the Liberal’s problems. If the new leader is from cabinet, they will carry the weight of being in the room for some of the terrible decisions. If they come from the outside, they carry the liabilities of the Liberals anyway. I don’t believe there is much of a way to get out of this without losing badly. 

The Bottom Line

The bottom line is that the Liberals NEED to win this seat, no questions asked. If the Liberals lose, their leader will face a tough choice of whether to resign with quite a bit of pressure. If the Liberal win narrowly, those same criticisms and questions will still be asked. If the Liberal hold on by double digits or more, Trudeau and the Liberals will probably gain some momentum to start their summer break. Whichever way this goes, it is destined to be a dramatic night on the 24th of June.

It has recently come to light that 11 members of Parliament have been "wittingly" took part in the foreign interference by Canadian adversaries. This is deeply troubling. The question is who and what will be done as a result.

Let's throw out a hypothetical. Again, this is in no way factual, just a hypothetical. Let's say that Pierre Poilievre has 3 out of the 11 MPs that took part in this foreign interference and the other 8 were Trudeau. That is the balance I suspect may happen, but that is a guess on my part with no real data behind it. In my view, Pierre Poilievre should immediately expel those MPs. It is above party politics, this is about national security. Now, if anyone is expelled before this list gets released, then I think we know the reason. Poilievre has the chance to show leadership and integrity by expelling those who are undermining our democracy. Canadians should absolutely want to get to the bottom of this and be demanding who these people are. 

What will Trudeau do? My guess would be next to nothing. He will say wonderful words I'm sure, but we all know his words will mean nothing. No one trusts the Liberal government on this issue, just as no one should. Trudeau has done nothing to restore confidence in democratic institutions. He should reveal the names of these MPs, no questions asked. Look how serious this is, there are MPs who may have committed treason, what time is there to waste on getting to the bottom of this. The Prime Minister has not acted and, quite frankly, past governments have not done enough. Now is the time for the government to act. When they get asked in Question Period about it, instead of answering, they do victory laps about the slight interest rate cut and talk about other issues like abortion.

All MPs should be expelled from their caucuses- Liberal, Conservative, NDP, Green, Bloc, you name it. This is unacceptable that it has happened and we must make sure it never happens again. Pierre Poilievre must act, and I trust he will. I don't care whether they are all Conservative or all Liberal, actions must be taken against them. The Canadian people must know the names of these treasonous MPs.

It's no secret that the race to be Trump's Vice Presidential pick has heated up in recent weeks. Possible contenders have gone on the air waves repeating Trump's rhetoric, often contrary to what has previously been. Let's go through my personal opinion on what I believe are the top 10 candidates.

1. Florida Senator Marco Rubio

I believe Florida Senator Marco Rubio is best fit for the VP position. He is someone who has significant foreign policy experience, can speak Spanish, and is a well spoken politician. He has experience, he's still relatively young, and I don't believe takes anything away from the ticket in November. Hispanic voters are shifting towards the GOP and to have someone on the ticket who speaks Spanish, which remains many Hispanic voters main language, would be huge for Trump. According to Forbes, 13% of the US population speaks Spanish. However, that number is expected to grow to 1/3 by 2050. The battle over Hispanic voters is a battle I believe the Republican Party can win. Having someone in such a significant position, although the VP may not do much, would bolster support in my view. Now, I'll get to the downsides. Trump or Rubio would likely have to change residency because of a constitutional ammendment that barred states from voting in the Electoral College for a ticket from the same state. The other downside would be the Trump-Rubio rivalry that happened in 2016. Rubio won over moderates, many of whom likely voted for Haley, and Trump took up the other half of the party, which I think may help the party even though Rubio has turned to Trump's side.

2. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott

I won't spend nearly as much time talking about these others, but I'll still go into what I like and dislike about them. For Tim Scott, he was towards the top of my list during the primary. I believe he is someone who can help win over black voters, particularly men. However, I was a bit disappointed by his debate performances throughout the primary. I also worry that, because of that, voters may not be as interested in him. He's someone who could also win over evangelicals, but I'm not sure Trump really needs that anymore. I wouldn't be upset if he was selected, I just think Trump could do better.

3. Florida Congressman Byron Donalds

Florida Congressman Byron Donalds was recently in the Bronx with Former President Trump during his rally. Now, it should be noted, he was born in New York so that could be more of the reason. However, I do believe he is a rising star in the GOP. He's a staunch defender of Trump, still relatively young, and speaks very well. Maybe some would say he doesn't have as much of an appeal to independent and moderate voters, but I think he'd be just as good as anyone else on the list (with the exception of Rubio). But, like Rubio, Trump would likely have to change residency.

4. New York Congresswoman Elise Stefanik

Elise Stefanik has come a long way since she first entered Congress. She went from a more moderate, main stream Republican to being a "MAGA" member of the House. She is the Chair of the Republican Conference in the House and has been another staunch defender of Trump. If Trump is serious about winning New York, maybe he would consider picking Stefanik. She could help level with the public around the issue of abortion, something the Republican Party needs to be specific about. Maybe her moderate past could hurt her in the VP race.

5. North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum

Doug Burgum would probably be the least controversial pick out of the field. I don't hate the pick of him as VP, but I don't love it either. I'm not sure he has any significant upside or downsides. I could see him as a cabinet member, maybe Secretary of Energy or the Interior. Many people feel like he's not very inspiring and a bit boring. However, sometimes you need someone not as exciting of the ticket. Trump takes up much of the air anyway. If it were up to me, he would be in the cabinet, but I suppose we'll.

6. Arkansas Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders

Sarah Huckabee Sanders was Trump's Press Secretary when he initially entered the White House. In 2022, she became the Governor of Arkansas. There are several former Trump Administration people who could be in the race. She knows Trump very well, I'm sure. However, I think since she recently became Governor, Trump will let her remain there and instead look someone else. I think she is doing a good job as Governor, and shouldn't be moved at all, unless it's another position on the Trump team.

7. Ohio Senator JD Vance

JD Vance may be the favorite of Trump's base to be VP, but I'm not so sure that means much. You need someone who can help bring in more voters, I'm not sure JD Vance could do that as well as others. He's from Ohio, so he could campaign across the Rust Belt, which will decide the outcome of the election. I see Vance more as a surrogate rather than a VP. I think he's a pretty good speaker, but he also won Ohio by a much narrower margin than Trump and other Republicans. He was formerly anti-Trump, something that Dems may highlight throughout the campaign. I'm only against him because I don't think he brings as much to the table as others on this list.

8. Former Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard

A name that has been floated up, but mostly shut down was Tulsi Gabbard. I do think she brings a lot to the table- she's a former Democrat, from a very Democratic state, and served in the military. And, oh by the way, humiliated Kamala Harris once on the debate stage already. Some may see the fact that she's a former Democrat as a bad thing, though. Trump also has next to no chance of winning Hawaii, where she's from. She's not the worst person for the job, in my view, but I think Rubio and others on the top of the list bring more to the table than Gabbard. I wouldn't be upset if anyone on this list was chosen, but I would obviously prefer someone higher on the list.

9. Former HUD Secretary Dr. Ben Carson

I was pretty impressed by Ben Carson in a recent interview he had with CNN. He's from Michigan (which admittedly I had to look up) which is an important state this election. Some people may say he is boring but, like Burgum, sometimes boring isn't a bad thing on a ticket, especially one with Trump. I could see Carson getting another cabinet position. I think the VP slot is probably a little bit out of reach for him as of what I've seen right now, but he's someone I think Trump could consider. We need all hands on deck this election, and that includes Dr. Ben Carson, who I believe has a lot to offer to voters and the party.

10. Alabama Senator Katie Britt

Lastly, we'll talk about Alabama Senator Katie Britt. She is seen as a rising star in the party and most recently delivered the Republican Response to Presiden Biden's State of the Union. I thought she made a lot of great points in that speech, but it came across to many as an acting performance and also a bit weird. Still, she's young, she's got a bright future ahead, and also has a lot of potential to do something great for the party. I'm not sure she'll be on the shortlist, but I think she's someone to consider in the VP race. 

Trump needs someone who can connect with voters where he can't. He needs someone who can win over skeptical voters, especially within the GOP. I suspect all of these candidates will be campaigning for Trump in some way, many already have. Trump says he'll make the announcement of VP before or during the Republican Convention in the middle of July in Milwaukee, so we'll have to wait until then.

Today it was announced by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's office that the by-election in Toronto—St. Paul's will take place on Monday, June 24th. This follows the news earlier this weekend of John Aldag resigning his seat in Cloverdale—Langley City out in BC and instead run for the BC NDP. That was a seat that Conservatives are expected to win handily considering they only lost by 3 points in 2021. The two main candidates in Toronto—St. Paul's are Leslie Church (Liberal) and Don Stewart (Conservative). 

The Toronto—St. Paul's seat is an absolute must win for the Liberals and Prime Minister Trudeau. If it doesn't go his way, the voices will only grow louder for him to resign as leader. There is still time for the Liberals to turn things around, but it seems they are getting more and more desperate by the day. The Liberals have an ideal candidate in an ideal location. My overall model (From May 19th) has the Conservatives winning by just 0.1%. However, there is a difference between by-election turnout and a federal election turnout. The Conservatives in Durham got a 19 point shift their way. If that shift happened in Toronto—St. Paul's, the Liberals would hold on by 5 points. Unfortunately for the Liberals, the polls have worsened since the Durham by-election.

The Conservatives will certainly put some effort towards winning this seat, but it's not the end of the world if they lose. The Liberals could walk out as the winners, but still be significantly damaged. A year ago it would have seemed unlikely the Conservatives would ever break through the red wall around Toronto, but now they have a chance to do it. I worry that lower turnout may hurt the Conservatives. Many not as active voters would lean to the Conservative Party, but may not know about this by-election. The Conservatives may have an uphill climb, but this is their chance to show skeptics that their lead is real.

My initial prediction: I think Conservatives will narrow the gap, but fall a few points short of winning this seat. Either way, a clear message will be sent to Trudeau and the Liberals.

The Progressive Conservatives were successful in holding both of their seats in the two by-elections tonight. Zee Hamid won Milton by a larger margin than Parm Gill in 2022. This is a huge blow to the Ontario Liberals who were hoping for some momentum going forward. The Lambton-Kent-Middlesex by-election saw a Liberal vote increase, but PCs still won handily. Liberals poured plenty of resources into these by-elections, especially Milton. Bonnie Crombie failed her first big test as Liberal Leader which is never a good sign.

There are two questions you could pose after these results: Did the Federal Liberals hold their provincial cousins back? OR, Is this an affirmation of an incumbent government? Federal Liberals would hope it's the second question, considering they are the incumbents. One thing we also have to keep in mind is that turnout for both by-elections were pretty low. Unofficial results show that turnout was 27.72% in Milton and 30.25% in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex. That's surprising to me considering that every provincial leader was in Milton at one point. 

It wasn't a great night for the NDP or Greens who both saw their vote share decrease. The NDP fell into 3rd in LKM and did marginally worse in Milton. I think the Liberals were able to make the race in Milton a two-horse race and the NDP weren't able to do much about it. In LKM however, I am concerned about the NDP number, which fell by almost half. I understand this is very much so PC territory, but the NDP still could have performed much better. I don't think people get excited to vote for a 3rd party candidate in by-elections. By-elections are either the status quo or the best alternative, and there can really only be one alternative. 

PCs did their job tonight: win. The Doug Ford machine keeps on rolling. We can't take away too much from this, but it is a good result for Conservatives. Federal Conservatives also have to be smiling right now. However, this was a small sample of the electorate. We'll see much bigger challenges for the Liberals in two upcoming provincial by-elections- one in Pictou West (NS) and one in Baie Verte- Green Bay (NL). We already saw one NL seat have a significant shift for the provincial Conservatives, but the Baie Verte seat will only require a 166 vote swing, much less than the 43 point swing in Fogo Island-Cape Freels. On the horizon likely this summer, the Liberals will also be defending 2 seats in what should be safe Liberal territory. However, some of my recent modeling shows the Conservatives have a shot of picking it up. The Conservatives will need to run an active and rigorous campaign in order to come out victorious in Toronto-St. Pauls. All in all, it was a good night for Conservatives in Ontario and across Canada.

It’s clear that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s pre-budget push did not work. He and his cabinet ministers traveled across the country and announced billions for programs. The polling released in the aftermath of this budget shows that there was no change in the polls. In fact, there was an increased and an entrenched Conservative vote. The polling released also suggests problems for the Liberals, particularly in British Columbia. Liberals could be knocked down to just one or two seats in BC. I was trying to think of one Liberal MP from BC who might be a future leader, and I couldn’t think of any. 

This goes to a bigger issue in the Liberal Party in my view. Liberal MPs aren’t standing up for their constituents. They aren’t pushing, at least publicly, for things their constituents are asking them to do. We saw a glimpse of that when the Atlantic Liberal caucus got the carbon tax off of home heating oil. I refuse to believe that Liberal MPs are totally loyal to Justin Trudeau when he gets obliterated by working Canadians at the doorsteps. 

Justin Trudeau has done everything he could and has nothing to show for it in the polling. He’s tried to frame this budget as one for fairness, but it’s clear that Canadians can see right through this failed budget. I think it’s also worth commending the Conservatives and Pierre Poilievre for not falling for the capital gains tax trap that the Liberals tried to set. The strategy of “fairness” doesn’t make much sense anyway because he’s been in office for nearly 9 years. 

Justin Trudeau has failed on housing, and is now pressing the panic button. I suppose that is one button that may have worked. It’s almost as if Justin Trudeau fell asleep for the first 7 or so years of his leadership and is now waking up and realizing he has a problem. He’s tried his hand at attacks on Poilievre, but it hasn’t worked. He’s tried to appeal to working class voters, it hasn’t worked. He’s tried appealing to young voters, it hasn’t worked. He’s going to get thumped at the next election and he finally realized it a few months ago. 

The Liberals have set an internal target to narrow the polling gap between them and the Conservatives by 5 points by July. What difference does a 20 to 15 point lead make? Not much in all honesty, but it is an effort to try and manage the bleed. However, as we’ve seen in recent polling, more people are shutting the door on the Liberals. These Liberal pre-budget announcements were fools gold for young people and it didn’t seem to move the needle much for the Liberals either. 

This Liberal target shouldn’t just be a goal, it is essentially a requirement for the Liberals to even have a chance of forming government. I think Justin Trudeau should resign if he isn’t able to hit this target. The Liberals faced a perfect storm of Conservative campaigning last summer and have been unable to respond whatsoever. Liberals let Pierre Poilievre set the trend and are now bent out of shape because their attacks aren’t working. 

I think we can all agree that it wasn’t Pierre Poilievre who told Canadians they were broke, it was their bank accounts. It wasn’t Pierre Poilievre who caused the housing crisis, it was the Liberals who have had almost 9 years to fix it. It wasn’t Pierre Poilievre who allowed foreign interference to happen in Canada, it was the Prime Minister who openly said he admired China’s Communist Dictatorship. On that point, I thought it was fake when opposition MPs said that Justin Trudeau admired the Chinese dictatorship. Look it up, and you’ll see. 

The Liberals narrowing a 20 point gap by 5 points does little to help their cause. Let’s pose another question though, what happens if/when the Liberals DON’T hit this internal goal? Will he resign? I think it’s a bit silly that the Liberals would release this publically. Everyone will point this out in media scrums and press conferences. What does this achieve? What is the upside? If they hit this, no one will really care. If they don’t, then everyone will go bananas about what happens next. The Liberal’s political gamble has no upside because no one cares if they hit it, and everyone asks, “what next”, if they don’t.

Political pundits have a tendency to vastly overemphasize the importance of by-elections in Canada's parliamentary system. However, every so often, Canadians get to way in on the current government in Ottawa in the form of a by-election. These only happen when an MP has resigned their seat during the sitting of Parliament. For example, Erin O'Toole resigned his seat in Durham after serving that community for many years, including some as Conservative Leader. Jamil Jivani, the Conservative who won that by-election increased the gap between Conservatives and Liberals by double digits.

Now, it should be noted that turnout is often low in by-elections. In fact, it's often in the mid 20s or low 30s. You cannot draw too much of a conclusion from by-elections, but you certainly can't waltz through them either. The Tories in the UK have lost a slew of by-elections over the past year or two, but UK politics tends to be more volatile than Canadian politics. The lesson that parties should take into by-elections: never underestimate a hungry voter. Canadians are hungry for a change in government as reflected by the Liberals tanking poll numbers. 

As to the three by-elections we have coming up, likely this summer. Conservatives struggled to perform in by-elections until the Durham by-election about a month ago. However, the most recent numbers are the most up to date. The best news for Conservatives though, is there is nothing to lose for them. They are purely on offense. The opportunities are not the greatest, however. There is a seat in Montreal, one in Toronto, and one in Winnipeg held by the NDP. It will be the Liberals and NDP who are on defense, something the Conservatives will like to see.

Starting out in Montreal where Liberals are probably the safest. The riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun was held by former Justice Minister David Lametti. He won this seat in 2021 by a margin of 43 (LIB)- 22 (BQ)- 19 (NDP) and the Conservatives were in a distant 4th place. I don't think the Conservatives expect to win a seat on Montreal Island. Their best chance was Anthony Housefather crossing the floor. However, the Bloc and NDP will be hoping to make gains in Montreal. Both parties have 1 seat, but they'll be looking to boost margins in this upcoming by-election.

Let's next go to another Liberal seat in Toronto. Carolynn Bennett was the member for Toronto—St. Paul's since 1997 and was last the Minister for Mental Health and Addictions. She won this seat by a margin of 49 (LIB)- 25 (CON)- 17 (NDP) in 2021. This is a seat that Conservatives will want to narrow down to the single digits. However, as we saw in the Fogo Island- Cape Freels by-election in Atlantic Canada last week, things can change significantly. If Liberals lose this seat, it would be officially over for the Liberals.

We'll lastly go to Winnipeg where the NDP will be fighting off the Conservatives in Elmwood—Transcona. Daniel Blaikie resigned his seat to work for NDP premier Wab Kinew. The margin in this seat in 2021 was 50 (NDP)- 28 (CON)- 15 (LIB). Conservatives will be hoping that the NDP's vote has slightly collapsed and the Conservative vote is increased. It my be difficult to win this seat, but it's probably their best chance of stealing one of the coalition's seats. I'll be interested to see where the PPC vote goes as it was 6% in 2021. 

There is a common theme in all 3 of these by-elections: there is a chance for another party to swoop away a seat, but the incumbent will likely hold it with a diminished vote. If the Conservatives are truly going to win the next election, they need to see a decent bump in their results. The Quebec seat will be interesting and I don't suspect the Conservatives will do too much better there. The Conservatives have a shot at the other two though. We saw in the Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial by-election that I mentioned earlier a 42 point swing towards the provincial Conservative party. I know provincial and federal elections are different, but a significant swing like that has to be a strong verdict against the Liberal party as a whole. By-elections are a choice of the status quo or another alternative, one that is typically the status quo. 

This week it was reported by Lawrence Martin in the Globe and Mail that Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc may want his close friend Justin Trudeau's job. It was reported that there were discussions about a leadership bid once Trudeau resigned, something he didn't deny when asked by reporters. This whole situation certainly surprised me. I figured Dominic LeBlanc could be someone who was an interim leader while the leadership election went on, not someone to lead the Liberals into the next election. Dominic LeBlanc is has been an MP since 2000 and has served in Trudeau's government since 2015. 

But, this brings up a much broader discussion on Justin Trudeau's leadership as Prime Minister and Liberal Leader. Justin Trudeau's 2024 Budget has appeared to miss the mark with former NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, former Liberal Finance Minister Bill Morneau, and many other economists and experts all have come out against this budget. The Liberals have also set an internal goal to narrow the Conservative's lead by 5 points by July. What good does narrowing a 20 point lead to a 15 point lead do? What good does reducing a projected majority to a projected majority do? I'm not sure, but they need to narrow the gap by more than 5 points by the next election in order to have a chance to win.

Many pundits have said that Justin Trudeau will reevaluate his leadership after this session of Parliament during the summer. Justin Trudeau has tried to press every single button, but none of it seems to be working for them. He's projected to get destroyed, no one's denying that. Would replacing him actually help the Liberal's chances? The jury is out on that question. This is an opinion paper, so you're here to read my thoughts. I would say that the Liberals are going to get destroyed anyway, no matter who they put up. If they do find someone to lead the party, I think it's best they find someone who hasn't been in government for the Liberals and is disassociated with Trudeau. The only person that would meet that qualification that I could think of is Mark Carney.

Just because you find a new leader doesn't mean you'll turn things around. The Tories in the U.K. have had 2 leaders since Boris Johnson and neither of them have been able to turn things around. In fact, Liz Truss made it worse, and Rishi Sunak hasn't been able to repair the damage at all. If Chrystia Freeland takes over, which would likely be who Trudeau wants, it's very unlikely she'll be able to repair any of the damage. Freeland has been Finance Minister for many years now and has enacted much of the inflationary spending, why would anyone trust her as PM. LeBlanc too has been in government since 2015 and served in the previous Liberal government as well, he's nothing more than the status quo. That's what every Liberal candidate will be- the status quo. The Liberals are going to offer the status quo in a change election, no matter if it's Trudeau, LeBlanc, or Freeland. 

Should Justin Trudeau run again? Well, that's up to your own opinion. As I've said before, I don't think it will make much of a difference whether he runs or not. Justin Trudeau hasn't lost an election as Liberal leader, I think he'll want that to continue. We all know he's a rather self-serving individual that always blames others, it won't be his fault if another leader loses. Of course, we all know whose fault it will really be. I think that Trudeau resigning could also backfire. The Liberals are very divided and a leadership election could expose that, just like the Tories in the UK. 

Whether Trudeau runs or not, there's still an uphill climb for Liberals no matter what. The Liberals are far behind and they are showing no sign of coming back. We'll see Trudeau's decision soon, but it's a big one no doubt. Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are far ahead with a fractured Liberal government in the rear view mirror. No new Liberal leader can mask the last 8 years of the Liberals.

On April 4th, 1949, the leaders of Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States came together in Washington D.C. to launch what will become the largest and strongest military alliance in the history of the world. It started with 10, but has since expanded to 32 member countries. In 1952, Greece and Turkey joined, in 1955, Germany joined, and in 1982, Spain joined. The end of the Cold War brought Czechia, Hungary, and Poland in 1999, and Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Slovakia in 2004. Albania and Croatia worked with other NATO countries, but officially joined in 2009. Since then, Montenegro (2017), North Macedonia (2020), and Finland (2023) and Sweden (2024) most recently.

 In 2014, Ministers of Defence from NATO member countries agreed to spend 2% of their GDP on defence. According to NATO's own numbers, only 11 of the 31 countries meet the 2% target. Those figures don't include Sweden, who only spends about 1.3% on defence. The Swedish did announce more funding on defence which would surpass the 2% target. It should be noted there was an uptick in spending from 2014, but still over half of the countries aren't meeting their NATO commitments. Even if funding is going in the right direction, many countries, like Canada, have no intentions of ever meeting their commitment. 

Why should American or Polish taxpayers have to carry the burden for the other members not paying their fair share? Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg did say that 18 countries were expected to meet the 2% target this year- the most ever. Spending has increased significantly for many countries over the past 10 years, but for many there is still much further to go. Portugal (1.48%), Italy (1.46%), Canada (1.38%), Slovenia (1.35%), Turkey (1.31%), Spain (1.26%), Belgium (1.13%), and Luxembourg (0.72%) all don't even meet 1.5% of GDP towards defence. If every country met its 2% target, (according to my estimates) an additonal $82.6B would be put towards NATO member's militaries. Imagine what that could unlock. Meeting the 2% target allows partnerships like AUKUS to develop. Australia, the UK, and the US are building submarines for the future, and they all contribute 2% to defence. Now, Australia is not actually in NATO, but they are a close ally of NATO, along with Japan and Ukraine. 

Speaking of Ukraine, there is obviously quite a conflict there. Ukraine has been able to fight off the Russian invasion, in large part at least, due to NATO's aid. Many, like US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have advocated for Ukraine joining NATO. For that to happen without starting a world war, it would have to happen after Ukraine defeats Russia. Pushing Ukraine into NATO too soon may provoke Putin instead of trying to instill peace. The goal of NATO is to secure peace around the world, typically not the goal of a military alliance. Ukraine still has a long way to go, not just in winning the war against Russia, but also rebuilding after. Western countries will no doubt continue to support those efforts, but one party in the US may walk away from Ukraine when they need us most. 

Listen, it is no secret that the United States is the main contributor to NATO. Other countries are turning the corner however. Only Croatia, and Turkey went down over the last 10 years in terms of % of GDP (The US and UK also went down, but they currently meet the 2% target). I think we should commend countries like Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania (which I will refer to as the East Flank), Hungary and Slovakia for all vastly increasing their spending contributions. Some, are because of the growing threat that Russia may invade them too. The East Flank must be strengthened to ensure that Putin doesn't try to annex these smaller countries. We must also strengthen Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania in Eastern Europe. I'm not convinced that Russia would invade Hungary though, based on the current Prime Minister Viktor Orban's friendly positions to Russia. It is worth noting that we should do all we can to not provoke Russia, because people on both sides would pay the price. 

NATO Article V says that an attack on one is an attack on all. That means that if an East Flank country is invaded, all the other countries would come to the rescue. Would countries like the US, UK, France, or Germany want to start a World War over the invasion of 3 smaller European countries? According to NATO's own numbers, there are 45,100 allied and host country troops in the East Flank. Is that enough to fend off a Russian invasion? Perhaps not. Considering there are nearly 280,000 allied and host country troops on the rest of the Eastern Flank, and many more would be sent over and mobilizing in a war, I don't think Russia would make that gamble.

There have been wars in the last 75 years, but NATO has persevered. In fact, NATO is now stronger than ever. I see a bright future for NATO, I'm an optimist. A future in which Ukraine wins the war, and possibly becomes a member. A future in which the US and other NATO countries strengthen ties with Pacific partners like Australia, Japan, and South Korea. I see a future in which NATO spending continues to rise, and hopefully every member meets its 2% committment. I want to see a future in which countries work together on building the military of the future, just like what AUKUS has done and can do for Australia, the UK, and the US. There may be more wars in the next 75 years, but I hope NATO's strength provides deterrence from that ever happening. Despite our struggles, NATO countries must unite, not attack each other. After all, we are all on the same team, and the world relies on us to continue to win for the next 75 years.

The NDP had 3 more MPs announce today that they would not be running for re-election in the next election. Carol Hughes, Charlie Angus, and Rachel Blaney all announced they would not be seeking re-election in 2025. They aren't the first, but they may not be last. There have been 6 MPs out of the 25 NDP members who have either resigned, or will not run again. Some of these MPs have served a while or are at risk of losing their seats or a bit of both. This should be of concern to NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh who has been leader for the past two elections, and is on pace to lead the NDP again in 2025. I'm not sure I'd say that these MPs moving on is a protest of Singh, but he should be concerned. I will close by posing a question to think about. What is the point of being an NDP MP if you've already qualified for your pension and you have no intentions of running for leadership?

Former Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole testified on the foreign interference and in his testimony mentioned that the Conservative Party likely lost 9 seats because of the Chinese interference campaign against the Conservative Party. Justin Trudeau coined this as Mr. O'Toole trying to make an excuse, a statement I find deeply disrespectful and also untrue. Erin O'Toole wasn't saying that it cost him government, he is saying that it cost him the matter of a few seats. Those 9 seats may have cost O'Toole a second kick at the can. Justin Trudeau is undermining foreign interference concerns, he is deeply damaging Canadian democracy. One of Trudeau's own MPs said that the Conservatives were pulling a Donald Trump by raising concerns of foreign interference. I believe Erin O'Toole is one of the best Prime Ministers Canada never had. His work as a politician, minister, and member of the Armed Forces is very admirable and Justin Trudeau's response was trying to suggest the Mr. O'Toole was making an excuse, a comment I personally found offensive.