Human Factors

In the presence of unforeseen phenomena, systems are required to offset the influence of poor decision making. Typically termed “traps”, these phenomena exist as a result of intersecting psychological and social factors, nearly always present in any experience involving human behavior. Why do we make bad decisions? Because we are human.

More precisely, people make poor decisions in avalanche terrain because of psychological and social influences that can impair judgment and lead to accidents. Even with training and awareness of the risks, backcountry travelers are susceptible to heuristic traps, which are mental shortcuts that simplify decision-making but can lead to errors in unfamiliar situations, like avalanche terrain. These mental shortcuts can work quite well ( when moderated through specific means and methods), but can often prove to be detrimental in the face of complex decision factors.

One of the most common heuristic traps is the familiarity trap, where individuals tend to overestimate the safety of familiar terrain. According to a study by McCammon, highly trained groups in familiar terrain exposed themselves to nearly double the risk of less well-educated groups.

Another trap is consistency, where individuals are reluctant to change their initial plans, even when presented with new information that suggests the original plan was unsafe. Larger groups and parties with some avalanche training were more susceptible to this trap. This is particularly important considering that, in our previous conversation, we established that larger groups tend to take more risk when making decisions in avalanche terrain.

Acceptance is another factor that contributes to poor decision-making, where individuals feel pressure to conform to the group's decisions, even if they have personal concerns. This trap is often associated with gender dynamics, where men in mixed-gender groups may feel pressure to downplay the risk.

The Expert Halo trap occurs when individuals defer to a perceived expert, even if that person lacks formal training. Studies show that groups with minimal avalanche training led by an unskilled leader take greater risks than groups with no training at all. Therefore, it is important to assess the true expertise of the group leader.

Social facilitation is another trap where the presence of other groups influences decision-making. Individuals may feel emboldened to take risks they wouldn't take alone, or they may downplay their skills to avoid appearing incompetent in front of others. Studies show that groups with some avalanche training took greater risks when they encountered other parties, while those with no training were more cautious.

Finally, the scarcity trap leads individuals to overvalue opportunities that they may lose, such as skiing first tracks on a powder day. This can cause them to take greater risks to avoid missing out. Studies show that parties were more likely to ignore obvious signs of avalanche danger when they encountered others and were headed to untracked slopes.

These heuristic traps can have a cumulative effect, where the more cues that are present, the greater the risk individuals are willing to accept. McCammon’s research suggests that only 4% of avalanche incidents were true accidents with no hazard indicators present; this means that most incidents could have been prevented by recognizing and mitigating the influence of these heuristic traps.

It is important to note that the sources primarily focus on the decision-making process leading up to avalanche burial, rather than the rescue process itself. However, the sources highlight the complexity of avalanche terrain and emphasize that poor decision-making can occur even with formal training and experience. Therefore, it is crucial to be aware of the psychological and social factors that can influence judgment and to develop strategies to mitigate them.

There are many tools presented in the avalanche safety world to assist people with complex decisions. We encourage you to find a system that works (makes sense to you), refine it to your needs and style, and  use it. Ultimately you may find you use a couple different systems or even develop your own system that is made up of several other systems. For example, using a prescribed checklist of actions to consider alongside using the ALPTRUTHS mnemonic.