Publications

Crawford AD, *K Vyas, & MC Serreze (2026). Historical Increase in Cyclone-Associated Precipitation over the Arctic Ocean Driven Primarily by Enhanced Arctic Evaporation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131, e2025JD045523. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD045523

Li Z, C Heuzé, J-N Song, AD Crawford, H-W Lai, D Chen (2026). All-season analysis of extratropical and Arctic cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere oceans during 1940-2024. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 131(6), https://doi.org/10.1029/2025JD044894

Crawford A, *N Loeb, & M McCrystall (2025). A decomposition of the key drivers of current and future Northern Hemisphere cyclone-associated precipitation trends. Journal of Climate, 38(13), 3075-3092, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0453.1

Crawford AD, MR McCrystall, JV Lukovich, & JC Stroeve (2023). The Response of extratropical cyclone propagation in the Northern Hemisphere to global warming.  Journal of Climate, 36(20), 7123-7142. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0082.1

Crawford, AD, EAP Schreiber, N Sommer, MC Serreze, JC Stroeve, & DG Barber (2021). Sensitivity of Northern Hemisphere cyclone detection and tracking results to fine spatial and temporal resolution using ERA5. Monthly Weather Review, 149(8), 2581–2598. https://doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-20-0417.1

Hell, M, ST Gille, B Cornelle, AJ Miller, PD Bromirski, & AD Crawford (2020). Estimating Southern Ocean storm positions with seismic observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125, e2019JC015898. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015898

 Crawford AD & MC Serreze (2017). Projected changes in the Arctic frontal zone and summer Arctic cyclone activity in the CESM Large Ensemble. Journal of Climate, 30 (24), 9847-9869. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0296.1

Crawford AD & MC Serreze (2016). Does the Arctic frontal zone impact summer cyclone activity in the Arctic Ocean? Journal of Climate, 29, 4977-4993. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0755.s1

 Rivet D, R Brook, A Crawford, C Kramer, MP Laforge, J Stroeve, & D Clark (2026). Polar bear-human interaction risk is governed by sea ice loss but independent of body condition. Arctic Science, 12, 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2025-0031

Crawford, A, C Soriot, & J Stroeve (2025). Pauses in autumn Arctic-wide sea ice expansion. In Press at Journal of Glaciology, 71, e21. https://:doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.106

Soriot C, A Crawford, & J Stroeve (2025). Record Early Sea Ice Loss in Southeastern Hudson Bay in Spring 2024. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL112584.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112584

^Stroeve J, ^A Crawford, S Ferguson, I Stirling, L Archer, G York, D Babb, & R Mallett (2024). Ice-free period too long for Southern and Western Hudson Bay polar bear populations if global warming exceeds 1.6 to 2.6 °C. Communications Earth & Environment, 5, 296, https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01430-7

Fox S, A Crawford, M McCrystall, J Stroeve, J Lukovich, *N Loeb, J Natanine, & M Serreze (2023). Extreme Arctic weather and community impacts in Nunavut: A case study of one winter’s storms and lessons for local climate change preparedness. Weather, Climate and Society, 15(4), 881-892. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0006.1

Crawford AD, E Rosenblum, JV Lukovich, & JC Stroeve (2023). Sources of Seasonal Sea Ice Bias for CMIP6 Models in the Hudson Bay Complex. Annals of Glaciology, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.42

Mallett, RDC, JC Stroeve, SB Cornish, AD Crawford, JV Lukovich, MC Serreze, AP Barrett, WN Meier, HDBS Heorton, M Tsamados (2021). Record winter winds in 2020/21 drove exceptional Arctic sea ice transport. Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 149. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00221-8

 Crawford, A, J Stroeve, A Smith, & A Jahn (2021). Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100. Communications Earth & Environment, 2, 109. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x

Ballinger, TJ, CC Lee, SC Sheridan, AD Crawford, JE Overland, & M Wang (2019). Subseasonal atmospheric regimes and ocean background forcing of Pacific Arctic sea ice melt onset. Climate Dynamics, 35(11), 1-16. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4467-x

Crawford AD, S Horvath, J Stroeve, R Balaji, & MC Serreze (2018). Modulation of sea ice melt onset and retreat in the Laptev Sea by the timing of snow retreat in the West Siberian Plain. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 120(20), 1–17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018JD028697

Lynch AH, MC Serreze, EN Cassano, AD Crawford, & J Stroeve (2016). Linkages between Arctic summer circulation regimes and regional sea ice anomalies. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121, 7868–7880. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD025164

Serreze MC, AD Crawford, AP Barrett, J Stroeve & RA Woodgate (2016). Variability, trends and predictability of seasonal sea ice retreat and advance in the Chukchi Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127, 7308–7325. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011977

Stroeve J, AD Crawford, & S Stammerjohn (2016). Using timing of ice retreat to predict timing of fall freeze-up in the Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 42, 6332–6340, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL069314 

*Loeb, NA, A Crawford, B Noël, & J Stroeve (2025). Modelling the impacts of extreme precipitation events on surface mass balance in the Eastern Canadian Arctic and Greenland. The Cryosphere, 19(11), 5403-5422, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-19-5403-2025

Crawford A, J Lukovich, M McCrystall, J Stroeve, & D Barber (2022): Reduced Sea Ice Enhances Intensification of Winter Storms over the Arctic Ocean. Journal of Climate, 35(11), 3353-3370.https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0747.1

Lukovich J, J Stroeve, A Crawford, L Hamilton, M Tsamados, H Heorton, & F Massonet (2021). Summer extreme cyclone impacts on Arctic sea ice. Journal of Climate, 34(12), 4817-4834.https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0925.1

Koyama T, J Stroeve, J Cassano, & A Crawford (2017). Sea ice loss and Arctic cyclone activity from 1979 to 2014. Journal of Climate, 30, 4735-4754. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0542.1

Sinha D, C Rajulapati, & A Crawford (2025).  Concurrent heatwaves and droughts in Canada: Spatio-temporal changes, climate drivers, and persistence properties. Earth’s Future, 13(10), https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF006104

Rajulapati C, A Crawford, SM Papalexiou, & J Stroeve (2025). Prevailing climate drivers for concurrent high temperature and low precipitation events in Canada. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(20), https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118662

*Loeb, N, A Crawford, A Herrington, M McCrystall, J Stroeve, & J Haneisak (2024). Projections and physical drivers of extreme precipitation in Greenland & Baffin Bay. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129, e2024JD041375. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041375

Serreze, MC, J Voveris, AP Barrett, S Fox, PD Blanken, & A Crawford (2022). Characteristics of extreme daily precipitation events over the Canadian Arctic. International Journal of Climatology, 42(16), 10353-10372. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7907

*Loeb NA, A Crawford, JC Stroeve, & J Hanesiak (2022). Extreme Precipitation in the Baffin Bay Region: An Evaluation of Atmospheric Reanalyses. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.866929

Crawford AD, KM Krumhardt, NS Lovenduski, G van Dijken, & K Arrigo. Summer high‐wind events and phytoplankton productivity in the Arctic Ocean (2020). Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 125, e2020JC016565. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JC016565

Crawford AD, KE Alley, *AM Cooke, & MC Serreze (2020). Synoptic climatology of rain-on-snow events in Alaska. Monthly Weather Review, 148(3), 1275–1295. https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0311.1

Serreze MC, AD Crawford, & AP Barrett (2015). Extreme daily precipitation events at Svalbard, an Arctic Island. International Journal of Climatology, 35(15), 4575-4588. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4308

 Kuyzk, ZZA, M Leblanc, J Ehn, A Crawford, C Peck, A Guzzi, M Stocking, J Idrobo, NS Knight, K Davis, M Dunn, E Rabbitskin, S Bélanger, F Noisette, M Gosselin, C Fink-Merceier, U Neumeier, RK Singh, D Walch, M de Melo, PA del Giorgio, M Humphries, & MI O’Connor (2026). Eelgrass ecosystem collapse and social-ecological regime shift driven by hydropower development and climate change. Nature Communications, 17, 297. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-69553-3

Ghomsi, FEK, J Stroeve, A Crawford, AT Tamoffo, FL Mouassom, & M Raogosha (2026). 2023-2024 El Niño drives record sea level surges in African marine domains. Communications Earth & Environment, 7, 179. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03204-9

Bruneau JA, JK Ehn, ZZ Kuzyk, AD Crawford, & ML Leblanc (2025). Step change in sea surface temperatures brings marine heat waves to sub-Arctic James Bay, Canada. Frontiers in Marine Science, 12, https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1549329

Serreze MC, AP Barrett, AD Crawford, & RA Woodgate (2019). Monthly variability in Bering Strait oceanic volume and heat transports and links to atmospheric circulation, ocean temperature and sea ice conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(12), 9317-9337, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JC015422 

*Trippier S, A Crawford, J Hanesiak, J Lukovich, & J Stroeve (2026). Lightning at the Tundra/Boreal Forest Interface: A Study of Northern Manitoba and Southern Kivalliq from 1998-2023. Accepted at Arctic Science. https://doi.org/10.1139/as-2025-0106

Ojembe BU, O Oyinlola, F Udoh, NJ Wilson, A Okoh , T Trinh, E Eugene, O Mutapa, G Boateng, B Ugwu, A Animma, SJ Obiekwe, ME Kalu, A Crawford, & H Luo (2026). Climate change-related weather emergencies, Aging and Inequalities among Racialized Older Adults: An Intersectional Climate Justice Framework Informed Scoping Review. Journal of Aging Studies, 78, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaging.2026.101439

Serreze MC, E Cassano, A Crawford, JJ Cassano & C Zhang (2026). The observed evolution of Arctic amplification over the past 45 years. The Cryosphere, 20(1), 411-425. https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-20-411-2026

Thoman, RL, & Coauthors (2025). The Arctic. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 106, S300–S356, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0104.1

Alley KA, RA Alley, AD Crawford, N Ochwat, C Wild, J Marson, T Snow, A Muto, EC Pettit, S Child, M Truffer, G Collao-Barrios, & T Scambos (2024). A record of West-Antarctic ocean changes written in ice-shelf basal channels. Journal of Glaciology, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.20

Gray, R, E Painter, JW Sprankle, AD Crawford, JJ Morrison, M Frazier, & JA Faust (2022). Suspect screening for pesticides in precipitation using liquid chromatography high-resolution mass spectrometry. Atmospheric Environment, 291, 119389. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119389

Dmitrenko, I, D Volkov, T Stadnyk, A Tefs, D Babb, S Kirillov, A Crawford, K Snydor, & D Barber (2021). Atmospherically-forced sea-level variability in western Hudson Bay, Canada. Ocean Sciences, 17(5) 1367-1384. https://doi.org/10.5194/os-17-1367-2021 

Crawford A & M Serreze (2015). A new look at the summer Arctic frontal zone. Journal of Climate, 28 (2), 737-754. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00447.

Ballinger TJ, A Crawford, MC Serreze, S Bigalke, JE Walsh, B Brettshneider, RL Thoman, US Bhatt, E Hanna, H Motrøen Gjeten, S-J Kim, JE Overland, & M Wang (2025). Surface Air Temperature. State of the Climate in 2024. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 106 (8), S309–S313, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0104.1.

Serreze MC, S Bigalke, R Lader, A Crawford, & TJ Ballinger (2025). Precipitation. State of the Climate in 2024. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 106 (8), S317–S322, https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-25-0104.1.

Ballinger TJ, A Crawford, MC Serreze, S Bigalke, JE Walsh, B Brettshneider, RL Thoman, US Bhatt, E Hanna, H Motrøen Gjeten, S-J Kim, JE Overland, & M Wang (2024). Surface Air Temperature. Arctic Report Card 2024. TA Moon, ML Druckenmiller, & RL Thoman, eds. Submitted to NOAA. https://doi.org/10.25923/mjhx-3j40.

Serreze MC, S Bigalke, R Lader, A Crawford, & TJ Ballinger (2024). Precipitation. Arctic Report Card 2024. TA Moon, ML Druckenmiller, & RL Thoman, eds. Submitted to NOAA. https://doi.org/10.25923/xf7c-p592. 

*Soleymani A, A Crawford, & F Wang (2025). Re-evaluating the Current and Future Navigable Period for the Port of Churchill through Hudson Bay. Prepared for Arctic Gateway Group, Prairies Canada, and the Government of Manitoba. 59 pp.

Hassel D, G Levavasseur, C Pascoe, K Taylor, A Crawford, P Durack, D Ellis, C Goddard, A Horanya, B Lawrence, & M Stockhause (2025). Essential Model Documentation (EMD).DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.15439552

Kuzyk ZZ, J Ehn, C Peck, A Guzzi, M Stocking, K Gupta, S Ciastek, A Diaz, J Bruneau, P Rai, A Crawford (2024). Eeyou Coastal Habitat Comprehensive Research Program (CHCRP): University of Manitoba Oceanography Research Final Report. Submitted to Niskamoon Corporation. 133 pp.https://eeyoucoastalhabitat.ca/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/UM_final_report_31July2024.pdf

Crawford A, *N Braun, & J Stroeve (2024). CMIP6 Projections of Climate Indices for the Arctic Ship-Accessible Season. Environment & Climate Change Canada, Gatineau, QC, 38p.

Diaconescu, EP, P Kushner, J Lukovich, A Crawford, E Barrow, L Mudryk, M Braun, R Shrestha, S Gruber, S Déry, S Howell, and L Matthews (2022). An inventory of historical climate data and climate projections for the Canadian North. Government of Canada, Gatineau, QC, 693p. https://nordata.physics.utoronto.ca/en/

Kaartokallio H, CJ Mundy, D Nomura, T Toyota, A Crawford, & J Vainio, 2025: Sea ice in Arctic marginal seas. In Sea Ice, D.N. Thomas (Ed.), 835-852, https://doi.org/10.1002/9781394213764.ch22 

Crawford A, D Babb, D Jensen, J Stroeve, & D Barber (2024). “6. Ice Cover, Ice Processes, and Climate Change” in Elements of a pan-Arctic Ocean Ecology, Paul Wassmann (ed.), Orkana Akademisk, Oslo, Norway, pp. 71-93. ISBN: 978-82-8104-586-6

Crawford, A, “Broken temperature records are alarming, but it is not too late to limit global warming” (3 Sep 2024), The Conversation Canada. https://theconversation.com/broken-temperature-records-are-alarming-but-it-is-not-too-late-to-limit-global-warming-236300

Crawford, A, “Five things we learned from the latest IPCC report” (1 Nov 2021), Canadian Association of Union Teachers Bulletin. https://www.caut.ca/bulletin/2021/10/commentary-five-things-we-learned-latest-ipcc-report

Crawford, A, “5 things to look for in the new IPCC report on climate science” (4 Aug 2021), The Conversation Canada. https://theconversation.com/5-things-to-watch-for-in-the-latest-ipcc-report-on-climate-science-165430