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ClimaMeter is a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. ClimaMeter is hosted by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace.
ClimaMeter is a rapid framework for understanding extreme weather events in a changing climate based on looking at similar past weather situations. ClimaMeter is hosted by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace.
Super-Typhoon Ragasa likely strengthened by human-driven climate change
Super-Typhoon Ragasa likely strengthened by human-driven climate change
Between 21 and 23st Of September, Super Typhoon Ragasa rapidly intensified over the western Pacific, lashing northern Luzon and Taiwan with destructive winds and extreme rainfall, triggering deadly floods and landslides (at least ~25 fatalities reported across the Philippines and Taiwan by the 23rd), while Hong Kong issued its top typhoon warnings as seawater inundated streets and buildings and hundreds of flights were canceled; mass evacuations—approaching two million people—were ordered along China’s Guangdong coast ahead of landfall, with officials warning of dangerous storm surge and life-threatening conditions.
ClimaMeter found that cyclones similar to Super Typhoon Ragasa are around 1°C warmer, up to 10 mm/day (10%) wetter, and slightly windier by up to 4 km/h in the present compared to the past. They contribute to more extreme rainfall and flooding risks, particularly in the Philippines’ mountainous terrain and neighboring coastal regions. We interpret Super Typhoon Ragasa as an event of exceptional meteorological conditions whose characteristics can mostly be ascribed to human driven climate change.
Picture: The MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) on NASA’s Terra satellite acquired this image of Ragasa at 01:40 Universal Time on September 23, 2025
Heavy rain in September 2025 Bali floods mostly intensified by human-driven climate change
Heavy rain in September 2025 Bali floods mostly intensified by human-driven climate change
On 9–10 September 2025, torrential rains exceeding 385 mm in 24 hours caused Bali’s worst flooding in over a decade, killing at least 17 people, leaving many missing, and triggering landslides that devastated homes, roads, and bridges across Denpasar, Ubud, and Singaraja. The disaster, worsened by deforestation and rapid development, unfolded as South Asia endures an exceptionally severe monsoon season, with India facing its wettest start in a century and Pakistan reporting over 900 deaths and millions displaced.
ClimaMeter found that meteorological conditions leading to the September 2025 floods in Bali are up to 2 mm/day wetter (up to 7%) compared to similar past events. Natural variability alone cannot explain the changes in precipitation associated with this very exceptional meteorological condition.
People wade through a flooded street after heavy rain in Bali, Indonesia. Photograph: Dicky Bisinglasi/Reuters
Heavy rain in July 2025 Texas floods locally intensified by human-driven climate change
Heavy rain in July 2025 Texas floods locally intensified by human-driven climate change
In the early morning of July 4, 2025, Central Texas was hit by deadly flash floods as remnants of Tropical Storm Barry clashed with a stalled front. Over 10 inches of rain fell rapidly in Kerr County, causing the Guadalupe River to rise nearly 29 feet in under an hour. Camp Mystic was devastated, with many campers caught unaware as emergency alerts failed to reach them. The flood, among the deadliest in recent Texas history, overwhelmed response efforts and left dozens missing.
ClimaMeter found that similar meteorological conditions in the region, particularly in the Hill Country between San Antonio and Austin, are now up to 2 mm/day wetter and 1.5 °C warmer than they were in the past. These changes have created an environment more conducive to sudden, high-impact rainfall events.
Credit: AP Photo/Lekan Oyekanmi
High temperatures in the June 2025 Eastern USA heatwave exacerbated by human-driven climate change
High temperatures in the June 2025 Eastern USA heatwave exacerbated by human-driven climate change
From June 23 to 25, an intense heatwave swept across the eastern United States as a powerful heat dome stalled over the region, pushing temperatures to record-breaking levels. Cities like Newark (39.4 °C / 103 °F), Boston (38.9 °C / 102 °F, its hottest June day since 1872), Baltimore (40.6 °C / 105 °F), and New York City (37.8 °C / 100 °F) endured extreme heat and high humidity, with heat index values exceeding 43.3 °C (110 °F) in many locations.
ClimaMeter found that similar meteorological conditions in the region, particularly across Ohio, Pennsylvania, and New York, are now up to 1.5 °C warmer and up to 4 mm/day wetter than in the past. These changes mean that “wet heat”—the dangerous combination of high temperatures and elevated humidity—is becoming more intense. The study, which analyzes changes in weather patterns since 1950, concludes that these shifts have been largely intensified by human-induced climate change. Natural climate variability likely played a minor role. Additional factors not covered in the analysis, such as urban heat island effects, may also have contributed to the severity of the event.
Image: A commuter rests their head while ascending an escalator at the Dupont Circle Metro Station in Northwest Washington on Tuesday. (Tom Brenner/For The Washington Post)
High temperatures in the June 2025 Western European heatwave exacerbated by human-driven climate change
High temperatures in the June 2025 Western European heatwave exacerbated by human-driven climate change
From 20 to 22 June 2025, large parts of western and southern Europe experienced an intense early-season heatwave, with Spain,France, UK and Italy particularly affected. In France, the national meteorological agency Météo-France placed 27 departments under yellow alert and 16 under orange alert as temperatures rose rapidly across the country. Central and southwestern regions saw widespread values above 37 °C, with near 40 °C in areas like the Lot and Tarn. This episode marked the 50th heatwave officially recorded in France since 1947, highlighting a concerning acceleration in frequency over the past decades, as reported by Le Monde.
ClimaMeter found that similar meteorological conditions in the region, particularly across France, northern Spain, and southern England, are now up to 2.5 °C warmer and up to 2 mm/day drier than in the past. The study, which analyzes changes in weather patterns from 1950, concludes that these shifts – especially the increase in temperature and the decrease in precipitation – have been largely intensified by human-induced climate change. Natural climate variability likely played a minor role. Additional factors not covered in the analysis such as urban heat island effects may also have contributed to the severity of the event.
Image: A Paris, le 19 juin 2025. GONZALO FUENTES / REUTERS
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