Publications (peer-reviewed)
Industrial Relations
with P. Askenazy, P. Courtioux, C. Erhel, M. Mofakhami
This research connects the literature on crisis management and on firm flexibility to investigate human resource (HR) strategies in response to unexpected crises such as the Covid-19 pandemic. Leveraging data from French workplaces we identify five main types of strategies implemented during the first lockdown, which go beyond the massive use of teleworking or the use of short-time work. The analysis demonstrates that a combination of preexisting HR practices (teleworking agreements, wage levels, risk exposure, and health and safety committees) and public policies (short-time programs, legislation on short-time contracts, and temps) influences which of these five strategies firms adopt.
Industrial Relations, vol. 61, no. 4, 2022
Works councils provide an essential mechanism for worker participation in decision-making. While the literature has extensively explored their impact on worker and establishment outcomes, the negotiation process between works council representatives and their employer has remained largely unexplored. This article contributes to filling this gap by investigating wage discrimination towards works councilors in Germany. Fixed effects models leveraging panel data show that councilors receive a wage premium that positively correlates with the sectoral coverage of collective bargaining. In the manufacturing sector, where the tradition of bargaining is heavily entrenched, employers positively discriminate councilors. In contrast, in the service sector, where the culture of bargaining is weak, employers penalize works councilors. In both sectors, partisan and unionized works councilors are the most affected. The most likely hypothesis to explain these results is that employers strategically discriminate these councilors in order to bypass the traditional constraints of establishment-level participation. This article therefore questions the quality of industrial democracy in Germany.
with P. Brandily, S. Briole and L. Khoury.
European Economic Review, vol. 140, 2021.
Mortality inequalities remain substantial in many countries, and large shocks such as pandemics could amplify them further. The unequal distribution of COVID-19 confirmed cases suggests that this is the case. Yet, evidence on the causal effect of the epidemic on mortality inequalities remain scarce. In this paper, we exploit exhaustive municipality-level data in France, one of the most severely hit country in the world, to identify a negative relationship between income and excess mortality within urban areas, that persists over COVID-19 waves. Over the year 2020, the poorest municipalities experienced a 30% higher increase in excess mortality. Our analyses can rule out an independent contribution of lockdown policies to this heterogeneous impact. Finally, we find evidence that both labour-market exposure and housing conditions are major determinants of the epidemic-induced effects of COVID-19 on mortality inequalities, but that their respective role depends on the state of the epidemic.
Media coverage: The New York Times, Le Monde, Le Figaro, L'Humanité, Alternatives Economiques, Sud Ouest, HuffPost, France Culture, France Inter, LCI
Formation Emploi, vol. 146, no. 2, 2019.
French version here
This paper compares how well apprenticeship training helps open the door to the labour market in France and Germany between 1998 and 2013. The data used come from the German Socio-Economic Panel and the Enquêtes Génération from Céreq. Estimates using instrumental variables reveal that, in relation to standard academic studies, apprenticeships offer a greater labour market advantage in France than in Germany upon leaving secondary school. Hiring rates in training companies, at the end of an apprenticeship contract, are higher in Germany, but, for those who are unsuccessful, finding a job on the external market is easier in France. A higher education diploma in apprenticeship does not represent an advantage on the labour market in either country.
Working papers
Revise and Resubmit, Review of Economic Studies
While the literature on unemployment insurance (UI) has extensively documented the role of benefit level and duration, little is known about the effect of UI eligibility conditions. These conditions often impose a minimum work history to qualify for UI benefits. In this paper, we exploit a French reform that softened this requirement after 2009 to evaluate the impact of UI eligibility conditions on employment duration. Using administrative panel data matching employment and unemployment spells, we provide evidence that the reform induced a jump in employment exits at the new threshold. Our results show that firms’ hiring decisions are instrumental in this separation response: they schedule fixed-term contracts such that their duration coincide with the new minimum work history condition. The reform also affects the employment duration of workers beyond those seeking UI eligibility, which indicates the emergence of a new norm in contract length.
Presented at (incl. forthcoming): KU (2023), Northwestern U (2023), UChicago (2023), EALE (2022), Rennes (2022), Nanterre (2022), NHH (2022), SOLE (2021), ASSA - Annual Meeting (2021)*, CBS (2021), SaM (2021), ESPE (2021), AFSE (2021), IIPF (2021)*, JMA(2021)*, LAGV 2021, IZA (2020), EEA - annual congress (2020)*, IAB (2020)*, IAAEU (2020)*, PSE (2019)
Figure 4: Yearly evolution of the number of fixed-term contracts of 4 months relative to 6 months
This paper offers both a theoretical model and an empirical analysis of firms’ behavioural response to variations in the labour cost of apprenticeship contracts. I study two outcomes: (i) firms’ propensity to train; (ii) retention of apprentices upon graduation in their training firm. The identification strategy relies on a French reform that entitled regions to change the amount and criteria of a large subsidy targeting employers of apprentices. Before the reform, the subsidy applied homogeneously across regions; after the reform, strong variations in its level and criteria appeared according to firms’ location. The data come from 3 administrative databases and from regional regulations that I collected from 16 regional services for apprenticeship training. Using triple-difference techniques, I show that subsidies foster turnover strategies. Thus, I find a limited but significantly negative elasticity of the number of apprentices hired to training costs. The point estimate is -0.22. As hypothesized in a theoretical model, the impact however plays at the intensive margin (training firms taking on more apprentices) rather than at the extensive margin (new firms entering the system). This suggests that training firms may respond to a rise in subsidies by training over their needs in skills. Confirming this interpretation, I find that a drop in the cost of apprenticeships decreases training firms’ likelihood to retain apprentices upon graduation.
Presented at: ESPE (2022), JMA (2022), EEA - annual congress (2020), AFSE-Trésor (2020), CBS (2020), IAB (2020), PSE (2019)
It is a well-known empirical fact that the level of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits positively affects the duration of unemployment. However, the separation response at the eligibility threshold has made it difficult for the literature to evaluate the extensive margin effect of UI benefits – ie. the impact of receiving any UI benefit vs. none – on future labour market outcomes. In this paper, we precisely investigate the extensive margin effect of UI benefits leveraging administrative panel data matching employment and unemployment spells. We exploit a reform that softened the minimum work history condition to qualify for UI benefits in France after 2009 and allows to implement a regression discontinuity design that accounts for this identification threat. Our findings point to a large negative impact of UI benefits receipt on employment probability up to 21 months after meeting the eligibility criterion, which is not counterbalanced by an increase in job quality. Negative duration dependence can rationalise these results.
Figure 5: Impact of receiving UI benefits on subsequent employment probability
Firms’ behavioural response to unsolicited applications for apprenticeship positions: a large randomized controlled experiment (Slides here, Pre-analysis plan here)
with S. Briole
Online matching platforms are cheap tools deemed to reduce matching frictions. On the apprenticesihp labour market, where informal networks are traditionally substantial in the matching process, platforms have the potential to foster high-quality apprenticeships. We evaluate the effect of an online platform developed by the French public employment service to match firms and prospective apprentices. The tool works as follows: a machine-learning algorithm has identified 500.000 establishments as likely to hire apprentices and users can see the relevant ones according to their preferred occupation and geographical area. Our estimation strategy consists in inhibiting some of the establishments displayed on the website in a two-step randomization design à la Crépon et al (2013) over the period running from September 2021 to February 2023. This strategy allows us to identify the effect of the website on the number of apprentices recruited and on the quality of matches both at the micro and macro levels, taking into account potential spillovers effects. We complemented this experiment with an online survey in 2022. Initial results point towards a well-estimated zero effect of the website on firms’ propensity to train with a small negative effect on the probability that contracts are broken before their end. Heterogeneity results highlight a detrimental effect of the platform for firms that are used to hiring apprentices – suggestively because the website overwhelms them with irrelevant unsolicited applications.
Presented at (incl. forthcoming): UChicago (2023), CBS (2023), IZA (2023)
with J. Leschke
This paper takes its starting point in the lessons learned from first generation statistical profiling systems in Public Employment Services (PES) and the sociological vision of labour market integration and good-quality work. Commonly job quality is not considered in statistical profiling, instead exit to any type of employment is modelled. We discuss and operationalize the multi-dimensional concept of job quality with a view on whether and how job quality items can be integrated into a tool computing the probability of exit into good jobs. Importantly, we also consider whether such items can be used in more advanced visualization platforms providing the unemployed and job seekers a snapshot of their labour market options. The aim of the paper is thus to translate the findings of the literature on the sociological-led user vision into job quality dimensions and items (variables) that can be measured either with register data or with European survey data and which can then be integrated in the development of a platform to inform jobseekers about their labour market opportunities.
Presented at (incl. forthcoming): CES (2023), Espanet (2022), Science Po (2021), CBS (2022 and 2021)
*Presentend by a co-author
Selected Ongoing Research
The impact of administrative extensions of branch-level agreements on firms’ profits and on employment levels (joint with H. Petit)
Introducing job quality into artificial intelligence algorithms that profile jobseekers (joint with P.Boskoski, B.M. Boshkoska, J. Leschke)
Why did the long-lasting claims to copy the German vocational training system in France and England never materialized accordingly? A focus on the 1870 to 1970 period
Policy Reports and Media
Quelles stratégies de gestion de l'emploi dans les entreprises face à la crise sanitaire ? Une analyse du premier confinement en France, Connaissance de l’Emploi, n°186, CEET, Décembre 2022
Technical report on data sources and data protection for algorithm development
joint with S. Frid-Nielsen, J. Leschke and A. Næsborg-Andersen – H2020 HECAT project, December 2020
Assurance chômage et durée des emplois, Note de la Chaire Travail, n°6, PSE, April 2020
L'Allemagne : un modèle de relations professionnelles vraiment coopératif?, Connaissance de l’Emploi, n°158, CEET, April 2020
Une pandémie de la pauvreté, Le Grand Continent, 5 septembre 2020
Vrai ou Fake: Le système des allocations nourrit-il le chômage ?, France Info, September 16th 2022
Sustainable labour market integration: challenges and advancements in algorithmic profiling of jobseekers
joint with J. Leschke - The Business of Society, CBS Blog, 7/04/2022
The impact of COVID-19 on mortality inequalities: The case of France, The Business of Society, CBS Blog, 7/04/2021