Publications
The Impact of Pensions on the Income Gap Among the Elderly: The Case of Taiwan's National Pension (with Chih-Kai Chang, Hung-Lin Tao, and Tsung-Hsi Fu), Journal of Asian Public Policy, 1-23, 2024
Abstract
In most countries, first-pillar public pension systems provide comprehensive coverage for all citizens. By contrast, Taiwan's unique National Pension (NP) is a compulsory, defined-benefit pension insurance that covers citizens excluded from occupation-based social insurance. As such, the NP inevitably includes disadvantaged citizens in its coverage. Using NP administrative data to link labour insurance, social welfare allowance, and income tax, we find that the NP narrows the pension benefit gap between the disadvantaged and the non-disadvantaged. The narrowing effect is stronger for the younger than for the older generation. Furthermore, the NP enhances pension benefits for women more than for men, thereby narrowing the difference in pension benefits between the sexes. As expected, the NP is more important for low-income citizens than for their wealthy counterparts.
從電子發票資料看振興三倍券效果 (與周德宇、連賢明、黃詩涵、楊子霆), 《經濟論文叢刊》, 已被接受。 (TSSCI)
Abstract
本文採用財政部 2019 至 2020 年台灣每日電子發票資料, 以鄉鎮區及行業別為觀察單位, 探討「振興三倍券」政策效果的持續時間及所誘發的額外消費。我們首先以 2020 年受疫情影響較重的綜合商品零售業、餐館業做為評估對象, 利用這些產業在 2019 年同期的銷售額控制季節性消費波動, 透過差異中之差異法估計振興三倍券刺激消費的效果。估計結果顯示振興三倍券在各產業之效果顯著持續約 5 至 10 週, 綜合商品零售業、餐館業短期的每週平均銷售額分別顯著增加 3.7% 與 7.8%。我們進一步將受疫情影響較小的飲料業納入分析, 並以鄉鎮區、行業別與年份三個面向的變異, 透過三重差分法來控制在三倍券發放同一時期其他可能影響民間消費的因素。三重差分法的估計結果與差異中之差異法類似, 顯示三倍券讓綜合商品零售業、餐館業短期的每週平均銷售額分別增加 6.8% 與 13.2%。綜合推算兩產業因發放三倍券所帶動的額外消費約在 443 至 786 億元之間, 由此推估的邊際消費傾向介於 0.49 至 0.63。
放寬退學標準對大學生學業學習是福還是禍?—北部某大學校務資料之實證 (與鄭輝培、陶宏麟、邱詩詠), 《人文及社會科學集刊》, 36(1), 3-44, 2024。(TSSCI)
Fortunate or Unfortunate? The Impact of the Less Strict Academic Dismissal Policy on College Students’ Academic Performance: Empirical Evidence from a University in Northern Taiwan (with Hui-Pei Cheng, Hung-Lin Tao, and Shih-Yung Chiu), Journal of Social Sciences and Philosophy, forthcoming.
Abstract
本研究使用北部某私立大學 100 至 103 學年入學學生之追蹤資料, 驗證退學標準由嚴格變為寬鬆後, 對學生學業學習之影響。本文發現寬鬆的退學標準將導致學生整體的科目不及格率與二分之一學分不及格機率顯著上升, 且加權平均 Z 分數顯著下降, 其中以成績中後段學生的影響最為劇烈, 而成績前段的學生雖然在學期加權平均成績、科目不及格率、二分之一學分不及格機率這三項學習指標上, 未因退學標準放寬而有所影響, 但他們的加權平均 Z 分數仍有顯著的衰退。在排除幾個可能造成此發現的因素後, 本文提出學生學習態度行為改變, 或許是造成學生在退學標準放寬後的成績表現有所差異的可能原因之一。
This paper studies the impact of adapting a less strict academic dismissal policy on students’ academic performance. By utilizing academic performance panel data of students who attend a private university, located in the Northern Taiwan, from 2011 to 2014 academic year, we find that the policy may increase the students’ failed credit proportion and the likelihood of that the half number of credits are failed. In addition, this policy may decrease the students’ weighted Z scores. The findings may possibly driven from that the students put less effort in their study.
大學多元入學是否對身材肥胖學生不利? 以北部某私立大學為例 (與陶宏麟、邱詩詠、鄭輝培), 《經濟論文》, 51(3), 239-276, 2023。(TSSCI)
Is a Multiple Entrance Program in Matriculation Harmful to Overweight Students? A Case Study of a Private Northern University (with Hung-Lin Tao, and Shih-Yung Chiu, Hui-Pei Cheng), Academia Economic Papers, 51(3), 239-276, 2023.
Abstract
大學多元入學方式中, 唯有申請入學在統一考試外, 另外透過面試評估考生的學術與個人特質, 師生也因此有面對面的接觸機會, 使得面試老師可能因為對肥胖的刻板印象而不利肥胖學生的申請入學。本文使用北部一所私立大學 102 至 108 學年度 (不含 105 學年度) 的新生身高、體重與入學管道資料, 分析身材是否與申請入學管道、面試占總分比例, 以及學測分數有關。當以 BMI 代表身材時, 未發現高 BMI 不利於申請入學。申請入學與身材無關的結論亦於差中差模型得到驗證。但如果以國民健康署對身材定義的過輕、正常、過重與肥胖分類, 雖然在男學生整體資料分析未發現面試對肥胖學生不利, 但男學生申請樣本顯示肥胖者有較低機率透過有面試的申請入學。
In addition to the unified exam, the Application channel is the only channel that might use interviews to evaluate students’ academic character and personality traits. The face-to-face interview might harm obese students because of stereotypes about body weight. This study uses data on freshmen’s height, weight, and entrance channels from 2013 to 2019 (excluding 2016) from a private northern university to investigate whether stature is associated with entrance channel and General Scholastic Ability Test scores and is also associated with interview weighting in the evaluation scale. Using BMI to represent stature, this study did not find evidence suggesting that a high BMI is harmful when using the Application channel to enter college. Stature is irrelevant to the Application channel and verified in our DID model. Finally, we use the weight categories defined by the Health Promotion Administration: underweight, normal weight, overweight, and obese. Although the overall male student sample does not show that an Application with an interview is disadvantageous to the obese, the male application sample does show a lower probability of applying for admission through interviews.
以財稅資料分析台灣不動產稅制公平性 (與傅健豪), 《經濟論文》, 49(3), 411-444, 2021。(TSSCI)
Property Taxation in Taiwan, An Empirical Analysis of Equality With Administrative Tax Data (with ChienHao Fu), Academia Economic Papers, 49(3), 411-444, 2021.
Abstract
本文使用財政部財稅資料庫 2004 至 2017 年之個人資料檔、所得明細檔、財產登錄檔等資料, 分析我國不動產交易價值、課稅價值與持有人所得、財富之關係, 並探討現有不動產持有稅制之公平性。研究結果顯示現行稅制長期低估不動產課稅現值, 且偏離市場價值之現象在高價值物件更為明顯。因此，我國的不動產估價比率(assessment-sales ratio) 雖在持有人所得上具微幅累進性, 但在資產價值上卻呈現明顯的累退性, 即資產價值較高者在持有不動產時, 反而享有更多因課稅現值偏低而產生的租稅優惠。我們也發現估價比率對資產價值的累退性僅限於不動產, 對不動產持有人之金融資產或間接持有之資產反而具有累進性, 這意味著現有稅制較有利將資產配置集中於不動產。我們認為若能縮小課稅現值與市場價值之差距, 將能強化稅制公平性並降低經濟效率損失。
We use income tax and wealth data from Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance, from 2004 to 2017, to investigate the incidence of property taxation. Specifically, we focus on the relationships among a property’s market value, its assessed value, and the owner’s income and wealth. Our results show that Taiwan’s property tax system consistently undervalues real estate. The gap between assessed value and market value is especially prominent among high-value properties. As a result, while the assessment-sales ratio is weakly progressive regarding income, it is severely regressive regarding wealth. In addition, since this regressiveness is not evident for financial and other non-property assets, the property tax system provides incentives for people to concentrate their assets on real estate. Closing the gap between property’s assessed and market values would enhance the equity of the tax system and reduce resource allocation distortions.
台灣財富分配 2004─2014: 以個人財產登錄資料推估 (與連賢明、楊子霆、韓幸紋、羅光達), 《經濟論文叢刊》, 49(1), 77–130, 2021。 (TSSCI)
The Wealth Distribution in Taiwan 2004–2014: Evidence from the Individual Wealth Register Data (with Hsien-Ming Lien, Tzu-Ting Yang, Hsing-Wen Han, and Kuang-Ta Lo), Taiwan Economic Review, 49(1), 77–130, 2021.
Abstract
本文使用財政部 2004 到 2014 年的財產登錄檔, 建立涵蓋房屋、土地、股票、存款、債券、金融票券與房屋貸款的個人財富資料。為確保所持有資產貼近現實, 我們使用房地產實價登錄資料來計算房屋與土地價值, 並納入個人透過投資公司持有的公司股權 (即間接持股) 來估算股票價值。根據所推算的個人財富, 我們發現台灣財富的吉尼係數 (Gini coefficient) 約為 0.79, 前 10% 與前 1% 富豪持有財富比例約為 62% 與 23%。這些財富不均數據低於美國, 約略與瑞典、韓國相近。 此外, 財富分配在年齡分組中呈現明顯差異: 全國財富在 2004 至 2014 年間呈現往 50 歲以上高齡人口集中的趨勢。
This paper estimates individual wealth distribution including houses, land, stocks, deposits, bonds, short-term transaction instruments, and mortgage by using the individual wealth register data of the Ministry of Finance from 2004 to 2014 and combining their with the method of capitalization. To ensure that the results are close to reality, we use the price data in the Actual Transaction Price of Real Estate to evaluate the values of houses and land. We also consider both direct and indirect holdings of stocks when we measure wealth. According to our calculation, the Gini coefficient of wealth in Taiwan is about 0.79, and the top 10% and top 1% wealth shares are 62% and 23% respectively. The wealth inequality in Taiwan is lower than in the U.S., approximating the results in Korea and Sweden. Moreover, the wealth in Taiwan between 2004 and 2014 showed a trend of concentration towards the elderly population over 50 years old.
台灣已婚婦女勞動供給之實證研究─動態非線性追蹤資料模型之應用 (與張勝凱),《經濟論文叢刊》, 48(2), 187–220, 2020。 (TSSCI)
An Empirical Study on Labor Supply of Married Women in Taiwan Using Dynamic and Nonlinear Panel Data Model (with Sheng-Kai Chang ), Taiwan Economic Review, 48(2), 187–220, 2020.
Abstract
本文參考 Hyslop (1999) 的計量方法, 在非線性追蹤資料模型中加入一階狀態相依 (first-order state dependence)、誤差項一階自我迴歸 (first-order autoregression) 等動態結構, 探討已婚婦女勞動參與具有持續性的現象。研究資料採用華人家庭動態資料庫 (Panel Study of Family Dynamics, 簡稱 PSFD) 民國 93-96 年的主樣本資料。研究結果發現, 年齡與教育年數的影響皆符合一般理論預期; 勞動參與具有顯著正向的一階狀態相依, 以及負向的誤差項一階自我迴歸; 小孩個數對婦女勞動供給在靜態模型中具有顯著的內生性。然而, 在動態模型中, 此外生性假設的檢定並不顯著。此外, 丈夫薪資所得無論在靜態或動態模型中皆具有顯著的內生關係。
This paper follows the empirical methods in Hyslop (1999) to investigate married women’s persistence of labor participation in Taiwan. Dynamic structures such as first-order state dependence and a first-order autoregressive error term are incorporated in the estimation. The data used in this paper is the Panel Study of Family Dynamics (PSFD) between 2004 and 2007. It is found that the effects of both age and education are similar to those found in the previous literature. Moreover, it is discovered that there is significantly positive first-order state dependence and a negative first-order autoregressive error term for labor participation of married women in Taiwan. The hypotheses of the exogeneity of fertility and husband’s income are both rejected in all static models. However, the exogeneity of fertility could not be rejected in all dynamic models.
經濟學門「熱門及前瞻學術研究議題調查」更新 (與陳旭昇、王道一), 人文與社會科學簡訊, 18(2), 76-97, 2017