RESEARCH:

Undergraduate Thesis(in Chinese): Business Confidence and Fixed Asset Investment(2022)

Published Version: https://xbbjb.cufe.edu.cn/CN/abstract/abstract6897.shtml

Jia, P., Shen, H., & Zheng, S. (2023). Monetary policy rules and opinionated markets. Economics Letters, 110995.

The Fed and the market often disagree about the path of interest rates. We measure this disagreement using gaps between the Greenbook and the Blue Chip forecasts for future three-month Treasury rates. We decompose this disagreement using the Blinder–Oaxaca decomposition. Our empirical results show that different perceptions about the Taylor rule can contribute substantially to the disagreement.

Published Version:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2023.110995