Research

Abstract: We use an event study approach to estimate the burden of the financial regulations associated with Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) designation. On March 30, 2016, the US District Court determined that MetLife’s SIFI designation was arbitrary and capricious because the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) failed to weigh the economic cost of the financial regulation on MetLife against the benefits of increased financial stability. We find significant positive abnormal returns for MetLife and AIG on the date of the ruling. We estimate that the lifting of the SIFI designation created $1.4 billion in corporate wealth for MetLife, suggesting that MetLife would be 3.4% more profitable as a non-SIFI. These gains fall short of the $8 billion stipulated by MetLife in its complaint. We also find significant abnormal returns to SIFI institutions on the day following the US Presidential election. 

Abstract: I develop a methodology for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. A novel feature of my method is the use of a mixture density network to approximate the distribution of initial states. I use the methodology to estimate a medium-scale, two-agent New Keynesian model with irreversible investment and a zero lower bound on nominal interest rates.  Using simulated data, I show that the method is able to recover the ``true" parameters when using the mixture density network approximation of the initial state distribution. This contrasts with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values.

Absract: We study a heterogeneous-agent model with sticky-prices in which total factor productivity and individual productivity are subject to stochastic volatility shocks. Agents save through liquid bonds and illiquid capital and shares. To construct equilibrium, we use a deep learning algorithm. Our method preserves non-linearities, which is essential for understanding portfolio choices. With rich heterogeneity at the household level, we are able to quantify the impact of uncertainty across the income and wealth distribution. We find that persistent high levels of uncertainty increase wealth inequality, and that in response to a contractionary monetary policy shock, illiquid wealth inequality decreases and liquid wealth inequality increases.

Abstract: We study how the transmission of monetary policy innovations is affected by the endogenous response of the central bank to macroeconomic aggregates in a two-agent New Keynesian model. We focus on how the stance of monetary policy and the fraction of savers in the economy affect transmission. We show that the indirect effect of an innovation is negative when the indirect real rate effect exceeds the indirect income effect. The relative magnitude of the indirect real rate effect increases with the share of savers and the strength of the central bank’s response and decreases with the horizon of the innovation.

Abstract: The ``balance sheet cosmetic" hypothesis states that the incentive for a bank to continue lending to a distressed firm increases as the bank's regulatory capital declines. To test this hypothesis, I construct a novel firm level data set using non-individual Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings from 2017 to 2019. I find a negative relationship between revenue growth at a firm and the regulatory capital of the the firm's largest bank creditor. The results suggest that banks with low regulatory capital may be ``gambling for resurrection" by continuing to lend to the worst performing firms.