Book

Networks of Rebellion: Explaining Insurgent Cohesion and Collapse. Cornell Studies in Security Affairs, Cornell University Press, 2014. Indian edition 2015, Munshiram Manoharlal.

Refereed Publications

“Pakistan’s Military Elite.” With Adnan Naseemullah and Ahsan Butt. Journal of Strategic Studies, forthcoming. Supplementary Materials. See more on the project data here.

“How and Why Armed Groups Participate in Elections.” With Aila M. Matanock. Perspectives on Politics, forthcoming.

“Democratic Accountability and Foreign Security Policy: Theory and Evidence from India” With Vipin Narang. Security Studies, forthcoming.

“Politics and Threat Perception: Explaining Pakistani Military Strategy on the North West Frontier.” With Asfandyar Mir and Sameer Lalwani. Security Studies, forthcoming. Supplementary Materials.

“Internal Security Strategy in India.” India Review Vol. 17, No. 1 (2018).

“Armed Politics and the Study of Intrastate Conflict.” Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 54, No. 4 (July 2017). Supplementary Materials.

“Indirect Rule and Varieties of Governance.” With Adnan Naseemullah. Governance, Vol. 29, No. 1 (January 2016), pp. 13-30.

“Armed Groups and Militarized Elections.”International Studies Quarterly, Vol. 59, No. 4 (December 2015), pp. 694-705.

“Militias, Ideology, and the State.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol 59, No. 5 (August 2015), pp. 770-793.

“Review Essay: Violence and Democracy.”Comparative Politics, Vol. 47, No. 1 (October 2014), pp. 99-118.

“Kashmir since 2003: Counterinsurgency and the Paradox of ‘Normalcy.’” Asian Survey, Vol. 53, No. 5 (September/October 2013), pp. 931-957.

“Organizing Insurgency: Networks, Resources, and Rebellion in South Asia.”International Security, Vol. 37, No. 1 (Summer 2012), pp. 142-177.

“States, Insurgents, and Wartime Political Orders.”Perspectives on Politics, Vol. 10, No. 2 (June 2012), pp. 243-264. Copyright American Political Science Association.

“Institutions and Worldviews in Indian Foreign Security Policy.” With Vipin Narang. India Review, Vol. 11, No. 2 (2012), pp. 76-94.

“Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Insurgent Fratricide, Ethnic Defection, and the Rise of Pro-State Paramilitaries.” Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 56, No. 1 (February 2012), pp. 16-40.

“Cities on Fire: Social Mobilization, State Policy, and Urban Insurgency.”Comparative Political Studies, Vol. 43, No. 12 (December 2010), pp. 1623-1649.

“Explaining Civil-Military Relations in Complex Political Environments: India and Pakistan inComparative Perspective.”Security Studies, Vol. 17, No. 2 (April 2008), pp. 322-362. [Note: there is a typo on page 350 – the phrase “did not feel it could not” has an extra “not.” This is why proofing galleys from a Delhi hospital bed is a bad idea.]

“Ten Ways to Lose at Counterinsurgency.” With Kelly Greenhill. Civil Wars, Vol. 9, No. 4 (December 2007), pp. 402-419.

Book Chapters

“Counterinsurgency in India.” In Sumit Ganguly, Manjeet Pardesi, and Nicolas Blarel., eds., The Oxford Handbook of India’s National Security (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2018).

“State and Politics.” With Vipin Narang. In David Malone, C. Raja Mohan, and Srinath Raghavan, eds., Oxford Handbook on Indian Foreign Policy (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).

“America and Pakistan after 2014: Toward Strategic Breathing Space.” In Christine Fair and Sarah Watson, eds., Pakistan’s Enduring Challenges (Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press, 2015).

“Insurgencies in India.” In Atul Kohli and Prerna Singh, eds., Routledge Handbook of Indian Politics (London: Routledge, 2013).

“Foreign Policy Making in India in the Pre-Liberalization and Coalition Era.” In Amitabh Mattoo and Happymon Jacob, eds., Domestic Politics and Foreign Policy: India’s ‘Neo-Federal’ Foreign Policy (New Delhi: Har-Anand, 2010).

“Resentment, Fear, and the Structure of the Military in Multiethnic States.” With Roger Petersen. In Stephen Saideman and Marie-Joelle Zahar, eds., Insecurity in Intrastate Conflicts: Governments, Rebels, and Outsiders (London: Routledge, 2008).

Selected Other Publications

“The Future of Democracy in South Asia.” Foreign Affairs, January 4, 2019

“Misreading the ‘Liberal Order’: Why We Need New Thinking in American Foreign Policy.” Lawfare, July 29, 2018.

“The U.S. military is trying to manage foreign conflicts – not resolve them. Here’s why.” Washington Post: Monkey Cage, July 16, 2018.

“America Has High Expectations for India. Can New Delhi Deliver?” War on the Rocks, February 22, 2018.

“Whither ISIS? Insights from Insurgent Responses to Decline.”Washington Quarterly (Fall 2017).

“Myanmar: Understanding the Rohingya Insurgency.” IAPS Dialogue, October 4, 2017.

“Spoiler’s Limits.”Indian Express, January 11, 2016.

“Rethinking Internal Security in India.”India in Transition, Center for the Advanced Study of India, University of Pennsylvania, August 10, 2015. Reprinted in The Hindu: Business Line.

“Every Insurgency is Different.”International New York Times, February 15, 2015.

“Insurgent Organization and State-Armed Group Relations.” In The Political Science of Syria’s War, POMEPS Brief #22, Program on Middle East Political Science, December 18, 2013.

“Naval Gazing.” WIth Vipin Narang. Foreign Policy online, June 25, 2013.

“The Future of Violence in Afghanistan.”The National Interest online, July 18, 2012.

“Caught in the Muddle: America’s Pakistan Strategy.” The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 1 (Winter 2011), pp. 133-148.

“Correspondence: What Makes Terrorists Tick.”International Security Vol. 33, No. 4 (Spring 2009), pp 180-202.

“Counterinsurgency is a bloody, costly business.”Foreign Policy online, November 24, 2010.

“Pakistan’s Stakes in Afghanistan.”The Friday Times (Lahore), May 8-14, 2009.

“Improving India’s Counterterrorism Policy after Mumbai.”CTC Sentinel, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, Vol 2, No. 4 (April 2009), pp. 11-14.

“When talking with terrorists makes sense.”Christian Science Monitor, May 29, 2008.

“The Challenge of Islamist Militancy in India.”CTC Sentinel, Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, Vol. 1, No. 2 (January 2008), pp. 14-16.

“Pakistan on the Brink: Regional Perspectives and Implications.”Audit of the Conventional Wisdom 07-21 (MIT Center for International Studies, November 2007).

The US, India, and the Persian Gulf: Convergence or Divergence in a Post-Iraq World: Workshop Summary Report (MIT Center for International Studies Persian Gulf Initiative, 2007).

“Diversify Iraqi security forces.” With Roger Petersen. Christian Science Monitor, March 7, 2006.

“Defeating Transnational Insurgencies.”The Washington Quarterly, Volume 29, No. 1 (Winter 2005-2006), pp. 21-40.

Book

Making Peace in Drug Wars: Crackdowns and Cartels in Latin America, New York: Cambridge University Press, Studies in Comparative Politics Series, December 2017.

"Combining sophisticated analysis with captivating, on-the-ground research, Making Peace in Drug Wars sets the agenda in a new and highly relevant area of inquiry. This is easily the best book I have read this year, a great achievement." --Stathis N. Kalyvas, Arnold Wolfers Professor of Political Science, Yale University

"Everywhere you look in Latin America you see struggles between drug gangs and the state. This brilliant book shows how it can be brought within the corpus of comparative politics. A new direction for the field." -- James A. Robinson, Richard L. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies and University Professor, University of Chicago

Peer-Reviewed Publications

“Legitimacy in Criminal Governance: Managing a Drug Empire from Behind Bars” (with Graham Denyer Willis), Forthcoming, American Political Science Review, Accepted November 2018

“Counterproductive Punishment: How Prison Gangs Undermine State Authority”, Rationality and Society, August 2017, pp.257-297.

“Logics of Violence in Criminal War” Journal of Conflict Resolution. Vol. 59, No. 8, November 2015, pp1486-1516.

“When Business Gets Bloody: State Policy and Drug Violence” in Small Arms Survey 2012: Moving Targets. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2012.

“Tres mitos sobre la guerra contra el narcotráfico [Three misconceptions about the war on drugs]”, Perspectivas Sobre el Desarollo, Vol. 9, No. 1, 2011.

“The Danger of Dungeons: Prison Gangs and Incarcerated Militant Groups” in Small Arms Survey 2010: Gangs, Groups, and Guns. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2010.

“As Facções Cariocas em Perspectiva Comparativa [Rio de Janeiro’s Drug Syndicates in Comparative Perspective].” CEBRAP Novos Estudos 80, 2008. (In Portuguese. English Translation here.)

Working Papers

"Inside out: The challenge of prison-based criminal organizations” Reconstituting Local Orders Working Papers #3, Brookings, Washington D.C., November 2016.

“The Logic of Violence in Drug Wars: Cartel-State Conflict in Mexico, Brazil and Colombia.” CISAC Working Paper #145, Stanford University, 2013.

“A Hole At the Center of the State: Prison Gangs and the Limits to Punitive Power.” CDDRL Working Paper #149, Stanford University, 2013.

Articles in Progress

“Endogenous State Weakness: Paramilitaries and Electoral Politics,” (with F. Daniel Hidalgo).

"Does Criminal Governance Increase Electoral Competition in Slums? (And is That a Good Thing?)" (with Douglas Block)

"Conceptualizing Criminal Governance"

"The Scramble for Brazil: How Prison Gangs Colonized a Continent’s Criminal Markets"

Non-Refereed Publications:

“Targeted Strategy Can Work Where All-Out Drug War Fails.” San Francisco Chronicle, January 13, 2013.

After Alemão: The Future of (Rio’s) Drug War. Summary of Presentation Given at ISSDP Annual Conference, Utrecht, May 2011.

“Depois da queda do Alemão: o futuro da guerra do tráficos [After the Fall of Alemão: The Future of Rio’s Drug War].” (in Portuguese) O Globo Online: Favela Livre, December 16, 2010.

“Ciudad de Dios: ¿Un ejemplo para México?” (in Spanish) Nexos, November 2010.

“Is the End in Sight for the War on Drugs?” Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Spring 2009.

“Demand for Firearms in Brazil’s Urban Periphery: a Comparative Study”, and “The Brazilian Small Arms Industry” (coauthored), in Small Arms in Rio de Janeiro. Geneva: Small Arms Survey, 2008.

“Paramilitaries at the Polls” Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2007.

“Brazil Votes ‘No’”, Berkeley Review of Latin American Studies, Fall 2005.

Chapters “The Brazilian Small Arms Industry”, and “The Demand for Firearms in Rio de Janeiro” in Brazil: The Arms and the Victims, Fernandes, R. ed., Rio de Janeiro: ISER/7 Letras, May 2005.

“Fraude Facilitada” (in Portuguese), Jornal do Brasil (Rio de Janeiro), October 20, 2004.

Chapter “Uruguay” in Small Arms Control in Mercosur, Godnick, W., ed., London: International Alert, 2003.

Op-Eds for The American Prospect, June 2002 - July, 2003.

In Collaboration: Front Line Brazil: Murders, Death Threats and Other Forms of Intimidation of Human Rights Defenders, 1997-2001, Cavallaro, J., ed., Geneva: Frontline/Global Justice, 2002.

Dissertation:

The Logic of Violence in Criminal War: Cartel-State Conflict in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil

Abstract