" Kinship ties in politics and extreme weather shocks" [Revise and Resubmit, Journal of Development Economics]
A notable feature of the democratization experience of some developing countries is the presence of concurrently elected politicians with kinship ties. Politicians with kinship ties may have greater political alignment, thereby leading to better policy coordination. On the other hand, kinship ties can mean fewer checks and balances between politicians. This increases the possibility of misallocation of fiscal resources at their helm. This paper investigates whether politicians with kinship ties respond differently to extreme weather shocks. Using typhoon shocks in the Philippines, I find that politicians with kinship ties are better able to mitigate the adverse effects of a disaster shock but only for typhoons close to an election.
"A review of forecasting models for internal migration: the case of Australia" (work in progress, with Aude Bernard and Tom Wilson)
While internal migration is an important driver of sub-national population change, it is often the main source of error in population projections. As a spatial process, internal migration is notoriously difficult to forecast compared with fertility and mortality and is more responsive to unexpected shocks. As a result, most subnational population projections assume internal migration rates to remain constant over the projection horizon or use expert opinion surveys, which have well-known limitations. In this paper, we review and test existing models to forecast migration flow matrices between capital cities and rest of state of Australia. Specifically, we test demographic adjustment models, econometric time series models, gravity types of models (including spatial interaction models), Bayesian models and machine learning methods. We compare each forecast to historical data with and without COVID using a range of error measures. We conclude by proposing a hybrid model and formulate recommendations for practitioners and
academics.
"What's in a lobbyist? A case study of the lobbyists of the Canadian International Development Agency" [draft available upon request]
Special interest groups spend large amounts of money lobbying governments in many advanced democracies. However, not much is known about whether some lobbyists more successfully communicate with policymakers. I investigate the success of in-house and consultant lobbyists in contacting federal officials. Using the administrative data on lobby registrations targeting the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), I find that in-house lobbyists are more likely than consultants to establish contact with federal officials. They are also more likely to have recorded communications with high-ranking officials. I discuss these findings with reference to the literature on moral hazard in lobbying.
" Internal migration responses to housing dynamics before and after COVID-19 in Australia" (with Aude Bernard, Dorina Pojani and Tom Wilson )(Applied Geography Vol 178, 2025)
Housing costs are a well-established constraint to internal migration. Rising costs typically reduce inflows while increasing outflows, particularly in large cities. Given the current housing affordability crisis in many countries, we extend evidence on the links between housing market dynamics and internal migration in three principal ways. First, we consider not only housing costs but also supply and distinguish between standalone and attached dwellings to provide more granular evidence. Second, we contribute a case study of Australia, where evidence is critically lacking despite remarkable housing price increases and wide regional price disparities. Third, we assess potential changes since COVID-19. To these ends, we estimate a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood regression with origin, destination, and year fixed effects on annual bilateral migration flows between capital cities and non-metropolitan regions from 2012 to 2023. We find that internal migrants respond to both origin and destination housing prices. Specifically, a 10 per cent increase in average prices at origin results in an 8.07 per cent increase in outflows, while a similar increase in destination prices reduces inflows by 3.96 per cent. Interregional flows also respond to an increase in housing supply at origin, albeit less so than an increase in housing price. The association between housing market dynamics and migration was greater at origin than destination before the pandemic. However, since COVID-19, migration flows have become more responsive to housing price at destination, particularly in the detached housing market. These results highlight the growing role of housing market dynamics in shaping internal migration flows.
"Kinship ties and female political participation: the case of Philippine mayors" (European Journal of Political Economy Vol 80, Dec 2023, 102419)
Kinship ties to incumbent or previous politicians are an important contributor to recent improvements in female political representation. There are concerns, however, that female politicians with kinship ties merely serve as placeholders. Using the universe of Philippine mayors that followed term-limited incumbents from 2004 to 2013, I find that female mayors are less likely to stand for reelection after one term than males. The gender gap is primarily explained by the gap among mayors with kinship ties to their predecessors. I also find that the predecessors of female mayors with kinship ties are more likely to run for mayor after their gap term and win. The results are consistent with political clans disproportionately using their female members as placeholders. In addition, female incumbents with kinship ties are more likely to exit politics after one term than their male counterparts. This result suggests that the political participation of female kins of term-limited mayors is more transitory than males.
“How Well has Education Helped Families Escape Poverty.” (with Edita A. Tan). Background Paper for the 8th Philippine Human Development Report. Human Development Network, 2020-21
"Survey of Economic Implications of Maritime and Territorial Disputes" (with Ronald U. Mendoza and Tea J. Ty) [Journal of Economic Surveys, 2019, 33(3): 1028-49]
"Does Mining FDI Crowd in Other Investments? Investigation of FDI Intersectoral Linkages" (with Ronald U. Mendoza and Nadia Doytch) [Comparative Economic Studies, 2015, 57, 326-44]
"Should my NGO go on a 'pork barrel diet'? The case of the Priority Development Assistance Fund in the Philippines" (with Ronald U. Mendoza and Manuel De Vera)[Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies 2014, 4(7), 1-19.]
"Valuing the Blue Economy using a Philippine Lens" (with R. Azanza, P. Aliño, R. Cabral, M.A. Juinio-Meñez, and R.U. Mendoza) In Charting a Blueprint for the Future: Economic Policy Working Papers for APEC 2015 and Beyond (Volume II), Pasay City, the Philippines: Department of Foreign Affairs and the Foreign Service Institute, 2015, 359-431.