" Kinship ties in politics and extreme weather shocks" [Journal of Development Economics Volume 180, March 2026, 103716] preprint
It is well-established that ties between politicians influence the distribution of public resources, particularly in policy domains where officials enjoy substantial discretion. Other policy areas, such as disaster response, have more limited scope for discretionary targeting. To what extent does political alliance influence the allocation of resources in these settings? Focusing on the case of the Philippines, I examine if kinship ties between two major local politicians- provincial governor and congressperson- influence the response to typhoon shocks. Using a close-election regression discontinuity design, I find that kin-connected governors respond better than other governors to strong typhoon shocks. I argue that the effect can be explained by both supply and demand channels. I find suggestive evidence that governors leverage their connections to congresspersons to request more assistance from the national government. Furthermore, voters reward kin-connected governors for their response to strong typhoons. These results provide a lower-bound estimate on the effects of political alliances on the allocation of fiscal resources.
" Internal migration responses to housing dynamics before and after COVID-19 in Australia" (with Aude Bernard, Dorina Pojani and Tom Wilson )(Applied Geography Vol 178, 2025) preprint
Housing costs are a well-established constraint to internal migration. Rising costs typically reduce inflows while increasing outflows, particularly in large cities. Given the current housing affordability crisis in many countries, we extend evidence on the links between housing market dynamics and internal migration in three principal ways. First, we consider not only housing costs but also supply and distinguish between standalone and attached dwellings to provide more granular evidence. Second, we contribute a case study of Australia, where evidence is critically lacking despite remarkable housing price increases and wide regional price disparities. Third, we assess potential changes since COVID-19. To these ends, we estimate a Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood regression with origin, destination, and year fixed effects on annual bilateral migration flows between capital cities and non-metropolitan regions from 2012 to 2023. We find that internal migrants respond to both origin and destination housing prices. Specifically, a 10 per cent increase in average prices at origin results in an 8.07 per cent increase in outflows, while a similar increase in destination prices reduces inflows by 3.96 per cent. Interregional flows also respond to an increase in housing supply at origin, albeit less so than an increase in housing price. The association between housing market dynamics and migration was greater at origin than destination before the pandemic. However, since COVID-19, migration flows have become more responsive to housing price at destination, particularly in the detached housing market. These results highlight the growing role of housing market dynamics in shaping internal migration flows.
"Kinship ties and female political participation: the case of Philippine mayors" (European Journal of Political Economy Vol 80, Dec 2023, 102419) preprint
Kinship ties to incumbent or previous politicians are an important contributor to recent improvements in female political representation. There are concerns, however, that female politicians with kinship ties merely serve as placeholders. Using the universe of Philippine mayors that followed term-limited incumbents from 2004 to 2013, I find that female mayors are less likely to stand for reelection after one term than males. The gender gap is primarily explained by the gap among mayors with kinship ties to their predecessors. I also find that the predecessors of female mayors with kinship ties are more likely to run for mayor after their gap term and win. The results are consistent with political clans disproportionately using their female members as placeholders. In addition, female incumbents with kinship ties are more likely to exit politics after one term than their male counterparts. This result suggests that the political participation of female kins of term-limited mayors is more transitory than males.
"Survey of Economic Implications of Maritime and Territorial Disputes" (with Ronald U. Mendoza and Tea J. Ty) [Journal of Economic Surveys, 2019, 33(3): 1028-49]
"Does Mining FDI Crowd in Other Investments? Investigation of FDI Intersectoral Linkages" (with Ronald U. Mendoza and Nadia Doytch) [Comparative Economic Studies, 2015, 57, 326-44]
"Should my NGO go on a 'pork barrel diet'? The case of the Priority Development Assistance Fund in the Philippines" (with Ronald U. Mendoza and Manuel De Vera)[Emerald Emerging Markets Case Studies 2014, 4(7), 1-19.]
Yes, migration to Australia is up. But new figures show most migrants do not become citizens. Article in The Conversation with Aude Bernard and Jing Wu
Understanding Australia’s Indian Communities: A Statistical Snapshot. India Branch, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, ACT, 2025. (Contributed to the section on Migration Pathways and Transitions)
“How Well has Education Helped Families Escape Poverty.” (with Edita A. Tan). Background Paper for the 8th Philippine Human Development Report. Human Development Network, 2020-21
"Valuing the Blue Economy using a Philippine Lens" (with R. Azanza, P. Aliño, R. Cabral, M.A. Juinio-Meñez, and R.U. Mendoza) In Charting a Blueprint for the Future: Economic Policy Working Papers for APEC 2015 and Beyond (Volume II), Pasay City, the Philippines: Department of Foreign Affairs and the Foreign Service Institute, 2015, 359-431.
"Is permanent temporariness on the rise? Trends in visa pathways" (with Aude Bernard, Jing Wu, Neil Argent, Jeromey Temple, and Tom Wilson)
"A review of forecasting models for internal migration: the case of Australia" (with Aude Bernard, James Raymer, Jacques Poot, Arkadiusz Wisniowski and Tom Wilson)[Revise and Resubmit, Population Studies]
Recognising that internal migration is an important source of error in population projections, we evaluate 20 forecasting models from three classes of methods: (i) time-series econometric models with and without external factors; (ii) machine learning-based Gradient Boosting Models; (iii) multiplicative component and gravity-type models. We forecast bilateral interstate migration flows in Australia for the five years to 2016 and 2023. No single model consistently outperforms the others in terms of bias, accuracy and calibration. Simple models perform as well or better than complex models. ARIMA models and their Bayesian equivalent perform well in both periods. Including control variables is no panacea because their relationship with migration is flow and period specific. Similarly, globally trained machine learning models are not clear-cut alternatives, particularly when flow sizes vary widely between origin-destination pairs. In contrast, the multiplicative component model suits contexts where the spatial structure of migration is stable. Collectively, these results demonstrate the difficulty of forecasting internal migration while showing the need for context-specific approaches.
Special interest groups spend large amounts of money lobbying governments in many advanced democracies. However, not much is known about whether some lobbyists more successfully communicate with policymakers. I investigate the success of in-house and consultant lobbyists in contacting federal officials. Using the administrative data on lobby registrations targeting the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA), I find that in-house lobbyists are more likely than consultants to establish contact with federal officials. They are also more likely to have recorded communications with high-ranking officials. I discuss these findings with reference to the literature on moral hazard in lobbying.