Future Climate Change Projections
Global and regional climate projection by KEI climate simulator
CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) is in progress centered on WCRP (World Climate Research Programme) to support studies on the climate change effect and related policy making.
Those global scale RCP scenarios could be used for regional climate policy by various downscaling technique. KEI produces global scale climate projection from Community Earth System Model (CESM) by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and regional scale climate projection over Korea dynamically downscaled by Weather and Research Forecast (WRF) model (Seo et al., 2013; Shim et al., 2017). The downscaled climate projection here is physically reasonable and now is being corrected with ground observation. We now distribute the main climate parameters (surface temperature, precipitation, RH, etc) and please send email to cshim@kei.re.kr to ask a set of climate data and any further cooperation.
1. Global climate projection by Community Earth System Model (CESM) from NCAR.
The CESM global climate projection were conducted from 2006 to 2099 and that includes all climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). The spatial resolution is 1.9 degree by 2.5 degree (lat x long)
2. Regional climate projection dynamically downscaled by WRF
To dynamically downscale the CESM results, the meteorological variables from the CESM model were used as the initial and boundary conditions for the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF v3.3) model at 6-hour intervals to produce regional scale scenarios with a 7.5 × 7.5-km spatial resolution for the Korean Peninsula from 2006–2100. The detailed methodology for the dynamical downscaling has been reported previously by Seo et al. (2013).
Above figures represented the climate projection (surface temperature) with 7.5km spatial scale over Korean Peninsular. Our downscaling the latest climate change scenario has been applied for Indochina peninsular, and Bhutan for international cooperation.
3. Related references (click the images below for download)
Seo, J, C. Shim, J. Hong, S. Kang, N. Moon, and Y. Hwang, Application of the WRF model for dynamical downscaling of climate projections from the Community Earth System Model (CESM), (WRFv3.3 모형을 활용한 CESM 기후 모형의 역학적 상세화, Atmosphere (대기), 23 (3), 347-356, http://dx.doi.org/10.14191/Atmos.2013.23.3.347, 2013
Shim, C., J. Seo, J. Han, J. Ha, T.H. Ro, Y.S. Hwang, and J.J. Oh, Projection of future hot weather events and the potential population exposure in South Korea, Climate Research, 2016 in press: https://doi.org/10.3354/cr01146.
대기지_published.pdfcshim_accepted_CR_20161201.PDFAcknowledgement
The system for producing regional climate scenarios was supported partly by Korea Environmental Institute (KEI) and partly by Korean Ministry of Environment (KMOE)’s “Climate Change Correspondence Program”. We thank Dr. Sung-Dae Kang and Ms. Jiyoun Hong for supporting our analysis of the CESM climate model. The CESM project is supported by the National Science Foundation and the Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy.