Embedded Files
Working Papers
Catastrophic Wildfires and Suicide
With Alexander James, Hannah Hennighausen, and Nino Abashidze
Revise and Resubmit at Environmental and Resource Economics
Working paper available at SSRN
We estimate the impact of catastrophic wildfires on suicide. Leveraging an eight-
year panel of county-by-month restricted-use mortality data for California, we find that
catastrophic wildfires result in a 47% increase in the suicide rate (roughly nine excess
suicides) in the six-month aftermath of an event. Exploring sources of heterogeneity,
effects are largely driven by males. Mechanisms are explored and suggest that both
the loss of property and the direct loss of life play a role. There is no evidence that
the mechanism is smoke exposure. These findings are robust to various modeling
assumptions and decisions, suggesting that catastrophic wildfires may be deadlier and
more expensive than previously thought.
Oil Shocks and Suicide
With Alexander James and Makenzi Scott
Revise and Resubmit at Energy Economics
Working paper available at SSRN
We estimate the effect of positive and negative oil shocks on suicide. Using restricted-use, U.S. state-level mortality data, we find that economic losses increase suicide risk and that economic gains have little effect. From 2015-2020, at least 6,000 people in the United States died by suicide as a result of declining oil prices. Exploring sources of heterogeneity, effects are largely driven by men, people without college degrees, and racial minorities. Results are robust to various modeling decisions and assumptions and are not easily explained by compositional changes. Implications are discussed, particularly as they relate to the clean energy transition.
Television as an Economic Development Strategy
With Alexander James and Hannah Hennighausen
Writing and Analysis
This paper investigates the economic impact of the television series Deadwood on the real estate price and income in Lawrence County, South Dakota (home to the town of Deadwood). Using a synthetic control approach, we construct a counterfactual version of Deadwood to estimate what housing prices and local income levels would have been in the absence of the show. Our results indicate that the airing of Deadwood led to a significant increase in home prices and household income, suggesting that media-driven tourism and heightened visibility can produce measurable local economic effects. These findings contribute to the literature on media influence and place-based economic development, demonstrating that entertainment media can serve as a catalyst for real-world economic change in small communities.
Natural-Resource Shocks and Voter Turnout: Evidence from the Behavioral Response to Fracking
With Alexander James
Restricted Use Census Project - Analysis Phase
While it is well known that people with low levels of income are less likely to vote, causal inference is challenging due to various sources of endogeneity. Energy booms, which tend to increase regional income and employment, have been shown to reduce aggregate voter turnout, leading some to question the relationship between income and voter turnout. However, existing literature cannot distinguish between variation in individual voter behavior (i.e. voters turning into nonvoters) from compositional changes (i.e., nonvoters moving into boom towns). Leveraging a difference-in-differences estimation strategy that exploits exogenous variation in the production of shale oil and gas, we propose to estimate the causal effect of the local fracking boom on individual-level voter turnout in the United States. We distinguish between changes in voter behavior and changes in the composition of the electorate.
Peer Reviewed Papers
The public overestimates and prefers greater tolerance for grizzly bear encounters than defined by the United States management guidelines
With Ian Fletcher, Todd Cherry, David Finnoff, and Jacob Hochard
Published (Nov. 2025) at Nature Communications Earth and Environment
Large predators are returning to landscapes where they have been absent for centuries, but human preferences complicate their recovery. Communities often resist predator recovery because of perceived risks, limiting what managers call social carrying capacity, or the level of human tolerance for coexisting with wildlife. Yet practical methods for measuring and integrating social carrying capacity into management decisions remain limited. To address this, we combine geospatial and survey data to model individual tolerance for the frequency and severity of grizzly bear encounters. The resulting estimates predict and map zip code-level tolerance across the region. Findings show that people tend to overestimate management’s tolerance of encounters than current federal guidelines. This approach provides a pragmatic tool to incorporate social carrying capacity into decisions about predator recovery and reintroduction, helping balance ecological goals with public acceptance.
Bayesian Inferences for Counterrorism Policy
Accepted, Nov 2022 at Terrorism and Political Violence with Kevin Dayaranta and Mary Catherine Legrid
An Analysis of Voter Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections via Closed Form Bayesian Inferences
Accepted, Nov 202 at Stats with Kevin Dayaratna and Jesse Crosson
Media References/Projects
Celebrity animals and visitors’ perceptions of wildlife risk
With Todd Cherry and Lynne Lewis
Featured Article at Park Science
We collected wildlife risk perceptions from 688 Grand Teton National Park visitors during the summer of 2024. If a trailhead sign for wildlife risk was associated with a generic grizzly bear, 52 percent of respondents said they would either cancel their plans or move to a new trailhead. But if the grizzly bear was a celebrity (specifically, Grizzly 399), about half as many people (27 percent) said they would cancel or move. Among the visitors with knowledge about Grizzly 399, that number dropped to only 14 percent. Many more people continued with their plans when the heightened risk was associated with a celebrity animal, but they also said they would be more cautious. Understanding how people respond to changes in wildlife risk is important, but equally important is how these responses may differ across settings. The influence of wildlife celebrity status on visitor behavior matters when trying to protect people and animals in national parks and other public lands.
“Earth Day Through the Economic Lens”
Chandler Hubbard and Quill Robinson, 2021, for American Conservation Coalition.
“To Reach Younger Audiences, Policymakers Should Turn to the Environment”
Nick Loris and Chandler Hubbard, 2020, for the Daily Signal.
“Look to Native Americans’ Forest Management for Better Wildfire Abatement”
Nick Loris and Chandler Hubbard, 2020, for the Daily Signal.
“Esports Win Probability: A Role Specific Look into League of Legends”
Chandler Hubbard, 2020, for the Samford Center for Sports Analytics.
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