Pour cesser de financer

l'agression russe contre l'Ukraine

Eric Chaney, Christian Gollier, Thomas Philippon

Trois mesures économiques immédiates

Malgré les sanctions financières qui le vise, l’État russe reste alimenté en devises par ses ventes de combustibles fossiles. Les importations de l’Union Européenne rapportent environ 650 millions d’euros chaque jour à la Russie. Comme l’a dit le ministre des affaires européennes français Clément Beaune, l’Europe contribue au financement de la guerre russe.

La disproportion des forces sur le terrain exige de renforcer les sanctions tout de suite et fortement: des mesures qui se durciraient graduellement jusqu’en 2023 auraient un coût moindre pour l’Europe, mais, d’ici là, l’Ukraine risque de disparaitre, malgré sa résistance héroïque. C’est pourquoi, en complément des dix mesures avancées par l’Agence Internationale de l’Énergie, nous proposons trois mesures à mettre en œuvre immédiatement par les pays de l’Union Européenne, afin de tarir le financement de la guerre de terreur menée par la Russie.

1. Cesser complètement d’importer le pétrole russe

L’Europe importe environ 4mb/j de la Russie. Il est possible de s’en passer car il existe d’importantes marges de capacité hors Russie. Sans réaction de l’offre et de la demande, une baisse de l’offre mondiale de pétrole équivalente aux importations de l’UE pourrait augmenter le prix du baril jusqu’à 175$, selon une étude de Goldman Sachs. Tenant compte de la baisse de la demande et de l’augmentation de l’offre hors Russie, la hausse serait nettement plus modérée.

Dans certains pays européens, l’embargo pourrait causer des difficultés qui devront être gérées par la solidarité européenne.

2. Imposer une taxe sur les importations de gaz russe, allouer son produit aux ukrainiens

A la différence du pétrole, dont le marché est mondial, le marché du gaz est local et l’offre peu substituable à court terme. Un embargo total sur les importations de gaz russe est irréaliste à court terme, étant donné le niveau de dépendance de certains pays. Pour réduire la demande et les rentes versées aux fournisseurs russes, une taxe sur les importations de gaz russe serait temporairement imposée. A l’horizon de l’hiver prochain, la demande serait réduite et l’offre non russe accrue. Ainsi, l’augmentation de prix ne bénéficierait pas aux fournisseurs russes, dont les recettes seraient amputées.

La taxe est amplement justifiée par les externalités financières massives pour l’Europe que cause la guerre, ne serait-ce que pour l’accueil impératif des réfugiés. Son produit serait alloué exclusivement à un fonds de solidarité avec la République d’Ukraine et les réfugiés ukrainiens.

3. Amortir le choc sur les bas revenus

Les effets de l’augmentation des prix du pétrole, du gaz et donc de l’électricité sont proportionnellement plus importants pour les bas revenus. Baisser les taxes sur les carburants aurait l’effet inverse à celui cherché, puisque cela ne réduirait pas la demande et maintiendrait intactes les recettes des exportateurs russes. Pour conserver le signal prix et la réduction de demande qu’il entraine sans augmenter les inégalités sociales, des transferts fiscaux temporaires vers les bas revenus devraient être mis en œuvre.

Réduire drastiquement les importations de combustible fossiles russes est une nécessité politique et morale, mais également économique et écologique. D’une part, la Russie a démontré qu’elle n’est pas un fournisseur fiable. D’autre part, l’impératif de décarbonation des économies européennes exige de réduire drastiquement la dépendance aux combustibles fossiles. C’est le moment de compléter les politiques de long terme par une action immédiate.

Ce texte est paru dans Le Monde le 15 mars 2022

Une version anglaise a été publiée par le site du CEPR, VOX-EU

Si vous souhaitez signer ce texte, envoyez votre nom, position et nom de votre institution à Eric Chaney elmchaney@gmail.com avec comme sujet "Cesser de financer l'agression russe"

Voir également la version anglaise de ce site.

Signataires de l'appel, au moment de sa parution, le 15 mars 2022 à 14h:


Eric Chaney, conseiller économique de l’Institut Montaigne

Christian Gollier, Directeur général, Toulouse School of Economics

Thomas Philippon, Professeur, New York University

Jacques Delpla, Directeur, Asterion

Etienne Wasmer, Professeur, New York University in Abu Dhabi

Gilbert Cette, Professeur, Neoma Business School

Elie Cohen, Directeur de recherche, CNRS

Hélène Rey, Professeure, London Business School

Richard Portes, Professeur, London Business School

Natacha Valla, Doyenne, École du management et de l’innovation, Sciences Po

Jean-Michel Glachant, Directeur, Florence School of Regulation, Institut Universitaire Européen

Charles Wyplosz, Professeur émérite, The Graduate Institute, Genève

Stefan Ambec, Professeur, INRAE, Toulouse School of Economics

Thomas Chaney, Professeur, University of South California

Marc Ivaldi, Directeur d'Études, EHESS et TSE

Jean Pisani-Ferry, Professeur, Institut Universitaire Européen et Sciences Po

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Franck Portier, Professor, University College London

Vera Pinto, Scientific Director, Novafrica at Nova SBE

Asensio Buendia, Economist, Complutense University of Madrid

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Michele Battisti, Senior Lecturer, University of Glasgow

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Giacomo Rondina, Associate Teaching Professor, UC San Diego

Paul Maneuvrier-Hervieu, Postdoc Researcher, University of Milan

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Jakob Hurrle, Member of City Assembly, Prague

Klaus Masuch, Economist

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Anna Stansbury, Assistant Professor, MIT Sloan School of Management

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Ludovica Gazze, Assistant Professor, University of Warwick

Pedro Saffi, Professor, University of Cambridge

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Eduardo Perez, Associate Professor, Sciences Po

Miriam Wüst, Associate Professor, University of Copenhagen

Marita Freimane, PhD Candidate, KU Leuven

Thierry Magnac, Professor, Toulouse School of Economics

Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, Professor, Paris School of Economics and EHESS

Marco Bellifemine, PhD Candidate, London School of Economics

Gerhard Jäger, Professor, Universität Tübingen

Claude Crampes, Emeritus Professor, Toulouse School of Economics

Kajus Hagelstam, Economist and Head of Unit, European Parliament

Jonna Olsson, Lecturer, University of Edinburgh

Peter Eppinger, Postdoc Researcher, University of Tübingen

Ulvi Sarkarli, Senior Economist, Pasha Holding, Baku

Nicolas Gavoille, Associate Professor, Stockholm School of Economics in Riga

Etienne Lehmann, Professor, Université Panthéon-Assas Paris II

Iacopo Morchio, Lecturer, University of Bristol

Patrick A. Burr, Senior lecturer, The University of New South Wales

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Jean Imbs, Professor, New York University in Abu Dhabi and CEPR

Olivier Simard-Casanova, PhD Candidate, BETA and Aléryon Science

Friederike Charlotte Hechler, PhD Candidate, Universität Potsdam

Ben Balmford, Postdoc, LEEP Institute at University of Exeter

Mariagrazia Cavallo, PhD Candidate, University of Bristol

Sylvain Bourjade, Professor, Toulouse Business School

Bohdan Kukharskyy, Assistant Professor, City University of New York

Ricardo Flores-Fillol, Associate professor, Universitat Rovira i Virgili

Michael Troegge, Profesor, ESCP Business School

Jenneke Krüger, Independent Researcher

Gerard Govers, Vice-Rector, KU Leven

Christophe Bernard, Associate Professor, Toulouse Business School

Vitor Pereira, PhD Candidate, BI Norwegian Business School

Efthymios Smyrniotis, PhD candidate, University of Bristol

Andy Neumeyer, Professor, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella, Buenos Aires

Edouard Machery, Distinguished Professor, University of Pittsburgh

Florian Hollenbach, Associate Professor, Copenhagen Business School,

Miguel Urdanoz, Associate Professor, Toulouse Business School

Lidia Kosenkova, Assistant Professor, University of Virginia

Illia Pasichnichenko, Research Fellow, University of Bristol

Joe Lau, Associate Professor, The University of Hong Kong

Peter Zashev, Associate Professor, Stockholm School of Economics

Yoshiko M. Herrera, Professor, University of Wisconsin-Madison

Andis Sofianos, Postdoc Fellow, Alfred Weber Institute Heidelberg

Paul Novosad, Associate Professor, Dartmouth College

Petra Sinagl, Assistant Professor, University of Iowa

Diane Coyle, Professor, Bennett institute, University of Cambridge

Mishel Ghassibe, PhD Candidate, University of Oxford

Guy Meunier, Senior Research fellow, INRAE Paris Saclay

Christiane Schwieren, Professor, Heidelberg University

Martin Chick, Professor, University of Edinburgh

Daniel F. Stone, Associate Professor, Bowdoin College

Tiago Tavares, Assistant Professor, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México

Pieter Gautier, Professor, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Jeffrey Ely, Professor, Northwestern University

Jonathan Portes, Professor, King’s College London

Raghu Suryanarayanan, Co-Founder and Partner, Navega Strategies

Clément de Chaisemartin, Professor, Sciences Po

Richard S.J. Tol, Professor, University of Sussex and Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

Sascha O. Becker, Professor, Monash University, Melbourne

Luca Riva, PhD Candidate, Brown University

Sarah Clifford, Associate Professor, University of Oxford

Marcello Graziano , Associate Professor, Southern Connecticut State University

Filippo Rebessi, Assistant Professor, California State University

Foivos Savva, Lecturer in Economics, University of Southampton

Stephen Jarvis, Assistant Professor, London School of Economics

Maria Giavazzi, Associate Professor, École Normale Supérieure, Paris

Jaakko Meriläinen, Assistant Professor, Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México

Uffe Bergeton, Associate Professor, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

Vytautas Valaitis, Max-Weber Fellow, European University Institute

Frikk Nesje, Assistant Professor, University of Copenhagen

Jeremy Edwards, Emeritus Reader, University of Cambridge

Yuki Takahashi, PhD Candidate, University of Bologna

Benjamin Crost, Associate Professor, University of Calgary

Emily Gallagher, Assistant Professor, University of Colorado Boulder

Ora Matushansky, Research Director, CNRS, Paris

Ian Bateman, Professor, University of Exeter Business School

Joerg Oechssler, Professor, University of Heidelberg

Gabriella Massenz, PhD candidate, Tilburg University

Moshe Hazan, Professor, Tel Aviv University

William Mullins, Assistant Professor, UC San Diego

Sheilagh Ogilvie, Professor, All Souls College, University of Oxford

Martin Huber, Professor, University of Fribourg

Andrea Mantovani, Associate Professor, Toulouse Business School

Kevin Berry, Associate Professor, University of Alaska

Martien Lubberink, Associate professor, Victoria University Wellington

Arjun Sengupta, Assistant professor, University of Nottingham

Alejandro Lopez-Lira, Assistant Professor, University of Florida

Alessandro Merli, Associate Fellow, Johns Hopkins University SAIS Europe

Terry Barker, Honorary Professor, University of East Anglia

Jean-Marc Siroën, Emeritus Professor, Université Paris Dauphine

Romain Faquet, Economist

Lourdes Moreno, Associate Professor, Complutense University of Madrid

Jouko Ylä-Liedenpohja, Professor Emeritus, University of Tampere, Helsinki

Artur Doshchyn, Departmental Lecturer, University of Oxford

Arthur Small, Lecturer, University of Virginia

Christian Traxler, Professor, Hertie School

Lorenz Küng, Professor, University of Lugano

Christoph Vanberg, Professor, Heidelberg University

Anna Calamia, Associate Professor, Toulouse Business School

Matthieu Poumarède, Professor, Université Toulouse Capitole

Philipp Schirmer, PhD Candidate, University of Bonn

David Hugh-Jones, Associate Professor, University of East Anglia

Benjamin Spector, Research Director, CNRS and Institut Jean-Nicod CNRS-ENS-EHESS

Christa Brunnschweiler, Associate Professor, University of East Anglia

Daniel Heyen, Professor, University of Kaiserslautern

Matthijs Korevaar, Assistant Professor, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Massimo Morelli, Professor, Bocconi University

Eva Raiber, Assistant Professor, Aix-Marseille School of Economics and CEPR

Olivier De Groote, Assistant Professor, Toulouse School of Economics

Immanuel Feld, PhD Candidate, University of Warwick

Hannes Rau, Postdoc, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie

Christophe Maneuvrier, Professor, Université Caen Normandie

Annika Lindskog, Senior lecturer, University of Gothenburg

Oana Borcan, Associate Professor, University of East Anglia

Benjamin Haddad, Senior Director, Atlantic Council

Andrea Lassmann, Professor, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz

Moritz Lubczyk, PhD Candidate, University of Zurich

Jerome Massiani, Researcher, Università Milano Bicocca

Arnold Polanski, Associate Professor, University of East Anglia

Léa Nash, Professor, Université Paris 8

Paul Nightingale, Professor, University of Sussex Business School

Sonja Settele, Assistant Professor, University of Copenhagen

Jens Dietrichson, Senior Researcher, The Danish Center for Social Science Research

Adelaide Duarte, Associate Professor (retired), University of Coimbra

Lilia Zhurakhovska, Assistant Professor, University of Duisburg-Essen

Philippe Jean-Pierre, Professor, University of La Réunion

Yvan Decreux, Economist, Federal Office for Agriculture, Switzerland

Vera Baye, PhD Candidate, Osnabrück University

Jakub Mistak, Stipendiary Fellow, University of Edinburgh

Martin Gaynor, Professor, Carnegie Mellon University

Marloes Hagens, PhD Candidate, Erasmus University Rotterdam

Constantine Sorokin, Lecturer, Glasgow University

Joris Pinkse, Professor, Pennsylvania State University

Alessandra Casella, Professor, Columbia University

Béatrice Cherrier, Associate Professor, Ecole Polytechnique, CREST-CNRS

Fabien Candau, Professor, Université de Pau UPPA

Priit Jeenas, Assistant Professor, Universitat Pompeu Fabra

José Crespo de Carvalho, Professor, Instituto Universitário de Lisboa

Kristina Manysheva, PhD Candidate, Northwestern University

Anastassia Fedyk, Assistant Professor, University of California, Berkeley

Guy Debailleul, Associate Professor, Université Laval, Québec

Dana Kiku, Associate Professor, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Łukasz Piątek, Assistant Professor, Warsaw University of Technology

Florin Bilbiie, Professor, University of Cambridge an CEPR

Argentina Marques, Financial Director, Nova School of Business and Economics

Panu Poutvaara, Professor, University of Munich and ifo Institute

Olga Pindyuk, Economist, Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies

Susana Peralta, Associate Professor, Nova School of Business and Economics

Michele Boldrin, Professor, Washington University in Saint Louis

Juri Grossi, Postdoc Researcher, University of California, Merced

Danilo Guaitoli, Assistant Professor, New York University

Massimo Baldini, Professor, Università di Modena e Reggio Emilia

Noura Maziak, PhD Candidate, Max Planck Institute for Molecular Biomedicine

Jan Schymik, Postdoc, University of Mannheim

James B. Rebitzer, Professor, Boston University's Questrom School of Business

Jörg Breitung, Professor, University of Cologne

Daniel Neuhann, Assistant Professor, University of Texas at Austin

Farzad Saidi, Professor, University of Bonn

Richard Parker, Senior Fellow and Lecturer, Harvard University

Ricardo Barahona, Research Economist, Bank of Spain

Alexander Michaelides, Professor, Imperial College London

Jakub Steiner, Associate Professor, Zurich University

Erik Brynjolfsson, Professor, Stanford University

James Bessen, Executive Director, Boston University School of Law

Matthew Holian, Professor, San Jose State University