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Over the past decade, there have been international collaborative efforts and joint projects aimed at improving subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S; typically referring to timescales of two weeks to two years) prediction skill in forecast systems. Among various forecast targets, our group is particularly interested in S2S prediction of heatwaves, heavy precipitation, droughts, atmospheric blocking, atmospheric river, and atmospheric teleconnections.
💡Research questions related to S2S prediction are as follows:
Could information on moisture-related variables provide additional predictive skill for atmospheric circulation driving East Asian heatwaves?
How much does stratosphere-troposphere coupling contribute to the predictive skill of midlatitude surface temperature and precipitation?
How can we improve the limited predictive skill of North Pacific and Atlantic blocking frequency in current forecast systems?
💡 Regarding the seasonal prediction of North Pacific blocking frequency, I proposed a hybrid dynamical–statistical approach to enhance its predictive skill.
📄 (Park et al. 2024; npj. Climate and Atmospheric Science, Link to Published paper)
Extreme event case studies on the subseasonal timescale predictability
Figure. (a) Location of the extreme event case studies with predictability on subseasonal time scales documented in Domeisen et al. (2022). (b) Location of sectoral case studies with related subseasonal application and/or product in White et al. (2022). Adapted from Vitart et al. (2025; BAMS).
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