TAKING THE SKILL BIAS OUT OF GLOBAL MIGRATION (with M. Burzynski, B. Elsner, J. Machado), Journal of Development Economics, 2020.
Global migration is heavily skill-biased, with tertiary-educated workers being four times more likely to migrate than workers with a lower education. In this paper, we quantify the global impact of this skill bias in migration. Based on a quantitative multi-country model with trade, remittances and human capital externalities, we compare the current world to a counterfactual with the same number of migrants, where all migrants are neutrally selected from their countries of origin. The skill bias in migration increases welfare in virtually all OECD countries, while the effects on non-OECD countries are more subtle. They are negative in many countries but positive in countries where migration-based externalities are strong. We find the global effect of the skill-bias to be unambiguously positive.
SOUTH-SOUTH MIGRATION AND THE LABOR MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH AFRICA (with A. M. Mayda, M. Mendola, G. Facchini), Journal of Economic Geography, 2018
Using census data for 1996, 2001 and 2007, we study the labor market effect of immigration to South Africa. We exploit the variation—both at the district and at the national level—in the share of foreign-born male workers across schooling and experience groups over time. In addition, we use an instrumental variable empirical strategy to estimate the causal effect of immigration on the local labor market. At the district level, we show that increased immigration has a negative and significant effect on natives’ employment rates but not on total income. At the national level, we find that increased immigration has a negative and significant effect on natives’ total income but not on employment rates. Our results are consistent with outflows of natives to other districts as a consequence of migration, as in Borjas (2006).
THE ECONOMIC PAYOFF OF NAME AMERICANIZATION (with C. Giulietti and Z. Siddique), Journal of Labor Economics, 2017, 35 (4), 1089-1116.
[media coverage: Freakonomics blog, Chris Blattman, The Economist (1-2), Slate, Financial Times]
We provide the first evidence on the magnitude and consequences of the Americanization of migrants names in the early 20th century. We construct a longitudinal dataset of naturalization records, tracking migrants and their naming choices over time. We consistently find that migrants who Americanized their names experienced larger occupational upgrading than those who did not. Name Americanization embodies an intention to assimilate among low-skilled migrants and reveals the existence of preferences for American names within the labor market. We conclude that the trade-off between individual identity and labor market success was present then, as it is today.
RECOVERING THE COUNTERFACTUAL WAGE DISTRIBUTION WITH SELECTIVE RETURN MIGRATION. Labour Economics, 2016, 38(1), 59-80.
This paper explores the distribution of immigrant wages in the absence of return migration from the host country. In particular, it recovers the counterfactual wage distribution if all Mexican immigrants were to settle in the United States and no out-migration of Mexican-born workers occurred. Because migrants self-select in the decision to return, the overarching problem addressed by this study is the use of an estimator that accounts also for selection on unobservables. I adopt a semiparametric procedure that recovers this counterfactual distribution and find that Mexican returnees are middle- to high-wage earners at all levels of educational attainment. The presented results contrast with the general perception that those migrants who return home have failed in the host country.
SIBLING INFLUENCE ON THE HUMAN CAPITAL OF THE LEFT BEHIND (with C. Giulietti and K. F. Zimmermann), Journal of Human Capital, 2015, 9(4), 403-438.
While a growing literature has analyzed the effects of parental migration on the educational outcomes of children left behind, this study is the first to highlight the importance of sibling interactions in such a context. Using panel data from the RUMiC Survey, we find that sibling influence on school performance is stronger among left-behind children. Hence, parental migration seems to trigger changes in familial roles and sibling effects among children. However, it is primarily older sisters who exhibit a positive influence on their younger siblings. We corroborate our results by performing a series of tests to mitigate endogeneity issues. The results from the analysis suggest that sibling effects in migrant households might be a mechanism shaping children's outcomes and success and that adjustments within the family left behind have the potential to generate benefits -- or reduce hardships -- in response to parental migration.
YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND VOCATIONAL TRAINING (with W. Eichhorst, C. Giulietti, M. J. Kendzia, A. Muravyev, J. Pieters, N. Rodriguez-Planas, R. Schmidl, K. F. Zimmermann), Foundations and Trends in Microeconomics, 2013, 9(1-2), 1-157.
This paper focuses on the determinants of the labor market situation of young people in developed countries and the developing world, with a particular emphasis on the role of vocational training and education policies. We highlight the role of demographic factors, economic growth and labor market institutions in explaining young people’s transition into work. Subsequently, we assess differences between the setup and functioning of the vocational education and training policies across major world regions as an important driver of differential labor market situation of youth. Based on our analysis, we argue in favor of vocational education and training systems combining work experience and general education and provide some policy recommendations regarding the implementation of education and training systems adapted to a country’s economic and institutional context.
THE LABOR DEMAND WAS DOWNWARD SLOPING: DISENTANGLING MIGRANTS' INFLOWS AND OUTFLOWS, 1929-1957, Economics Letters, 2013, 118 (3), 531-534.
This paper studies in- and out-migration from the U.S. during the first half of the twentieth century and assesses how these flows affected state-level labor markets. It shows that out-migration positively impacted the earnings growth of remaining workers, while in-migration had a negative impact. Hence, immigrant arrivals were substitutes of the existing workforce, while out-migration reduced the competitive pressure on labor markets.
SOCIAL NETWORKS AND (POLITICAL) ASSIMILATION IN THE AGE OF MASS MIGRATION, with C. Giulietti, and Y. Zenou, CEPR Discussion Paper 16182
This paper investigates the pathways through which immigrant communities (social networks) influence individual naturalization. Specifically, we examine the impact that a fraction of naturalized co-ethnics, residing in the same block as a new immigrant in New York City in 1930, have on the probability of said immigrant becoming a U.S. citizen in 1940. Our results indicate that the concentration of naturalized co-ethnics residing in the block positively predicts individual naturalization and that this relationship operates through one main channel: information dissemination. Indeed, immigrants who live among naturalized co-ethnics are more likely to naturalize because they have greater access to critical information about the benefits and procedures of naturalization.
LET'S BE SELECTIVE ABOUT MIGRANT SELF-SELECTION (with B. Elsner), IZA DP No. 7865, December 2013
Migrants are typically self-selected from the population of their home country. While a large literature has identified the causes of self-selection, we turn in this paper to the consequences. Using a combination of non-parametric econometrics and calibrated simulation, we quantify the impact of migrant self-selection on per-capita GDP in both sending and receiving countries. Two episodes of mass migration serve as examples: the migration from Norway to the US in the 1880s and the migration from Mexico to the US in the 2000s. We first estimate the degree of selection, and show that Norwegians were positively and Mexicans negatively selected. In a simulation exercise, we compare the economy under selective migration with a counterfactual in which the same number of migrants are neutrally selected. In both periods, we find virtually no aggregate effect in the US. Findings are different for the sending countries; migrant selection decreases Norwegian GDP by 0.3%, and increases Mexican GDP by almost 1%. While these effects may appear small, we demonstrate that the effect in Mexico is as large as the difference between no migration and the current level of migration.
FIFTY YEARS OF COMPOSITIONAL CHANGES IN U.S. OUT-MIGRATION, 1907-1957. IZA DP No. 7258, February 2013
Immigration authorities have seldom collected data on the out-migration of the foreign-born. As a consequence, several indirect approaches have been proposed to measure and study out-migration. This paper adds to the literature by using official statistics that directly identify the out-migration by demographic and socio-economic characteristics. Using time series and panel methods on the composition of U.S. out-migration between 1908 and 1957, the paper asks two questions. First, how did the out-migrants compare with in-migrants and permanent settlers? Second, did the economic and political events of the 1900s have any impact on the composition of this outflow? Results show that the out-migrants were primarily unskilled workers, but selection has become more positive over time. The economic and political shocks of the first half of the 20th century impacted the composition of the outflow, however, the more restrictive immigration policies have been associated primarily with longer stays. These findings complements the results based on indirect measures of out-migration, and are interestingly in line with analyses of out-migrant selectivity and impact of border controls on out-migrant behavior in later periods.
THE CONVERGENCE HYPOTHESIS IN IMMIGRANT ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT (with A. E. Schwartz and L. Stiefel)
Based on a model of human capital accumulation, we study convergence in academic achievement of native-born and immigrant students. The model captures the idea that human capital accumulation is a dynamic process depending on cognitive achievement accumulated at previous stages of a student's academic life. This theoretical formalization provides a framework for the empirical analysis of dynamic trajectories of academic performance. We find that foreign-born students start at lower levels of performance in reading and higher levels of performance in math. Foreign-born students catch up in reading and converge to a higher long run level of performance, however. The nativity gap does not fade in time. The theoretical model allows us to predict that foreign-born will converge to higher achievement levels across all ethnicities. This process is slow and convergence takes 14-15 years.
Eastern Partnership Migrants in Germany: Outcomes, Potentials and Challenges, IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, 2014, 3:7
Labour Migration from EaP Countries to the EU Assessment of Costs and Benefits and Proposals for Better Labour Market Matching, with M. Kahanec, K. F. Zimmermann, L. Kurekova. IZA Report n. 56, August 2013. Report based on a study conducted for the European Commission.