IPCC  Sixth Assessment Report ,  

AR6 Climate Change 2021:The Physical Science Basis.

The Working Group I contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change, bringing together the latest advances in climate science, and combining multiple lines of evidence from paleoclimate, observations, process understanding, and global and regional climate simulations. 

What is so new about weather forecasting? 

We now have a huge amount of weather sensors on land, on sea, and in space for many many reasons: 

1. The forecasting of weather conditions: hurricanes, tropical rain, winter storms, etc.

2. Communications

3. Surveillance, etc.

International data and model sharing is key for improved forecasting. So for example one has what is referred to as the American Model, and the seemingly more accurate European model. Within the USA there are many commercial weather sites: Accuweather, The Weather Channel, Weather Underground, and federal sites, for example NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. There is a healthy competition in weather forecasting not just days, but weeks out. Internationally we of course mention the ECMWF, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. 

In addition, the result of huge scientific investment, the weather models in current use are far more sophisticated, and the computing power incomparable, to what was available in the sixties to early weather pioneers such as  Edward Lorenz and the weather gazers of yore. 

What is so new in this report?

The confidence in the effectiveness of Monte Carlo simulation of existing weather and climate models is so great that a rigorous risk assessment can be made for a huge variety of events that on a scale of speed can vary from moving slowly to moving very rapidly with catastrophic effect. 

How can we help?

We know a lot about the bold faced terms:  Monte Carlo simulation, risk assessment. We, at Catastrofen,  are happy to explain what the theories of bifurcation and catastrophe are all about. Not so scary as it is made out to be, a nice and useful piece of mathematics. Mental yoga.