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These coral climate refugia models aim to guide investments in coral restoration and conservation to the reefs most likely to survive the impacts of climate change based on reef locations, historical and future thermal conditions, hurricane impacts, and coral larval connectivity.
All coral reefs in the region were ranked in terms of their ability to survive the impacts of climate change through an optimization model using 5 input data layers:
Reef locations (Schill et al. 2021)
Historical thermal conditions (Dixon et al. 2022)
Future thermal conditions (Dixon et al. 2022)
Hurricane Impacts (Knapp et al. 2018)
Larval connectivity (Schill et al. 2015)
The model was completed regionally and nationally. The regional model should be used for regional planning, while decisions at the country-level should utilize the national models.
Reference for these maps:
Chollett, I., Escovar-Fadul, X., Schill, S. R., Croquer, A., Dixon, A. M., Beger, M., Shaver, E., Pietsch McNulty, V., & Wolff, N. H. (2022). Planning for resilience: Incorporating scenario and model uncertainty and trade-offs when prioritizing management of climate refugia. Global Change Biology, 00, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16167
BahamaReefs
The regional model for The Bahamas and Turks and Caicos was used to inform the selection of target sites for coral reef insurance projects through an extensive stakeholder consultation process.
The top 25% of coral climate refugia were used to identify priority refugia reefs within four Bahamian islands: Abaco, Andros, Exuma, and Grand Bahama.
Using the data as a guide, sites were narrowed through stakeholder consultation using criteria such as protection status, presence of local NGOs, government interest, accessibility, and presence of local threats such as pollution or coastal development.
Specific intervention needs were identified at each site, such as reduction of development-related pollution, SCTLD remediation efforts, removal of debris left by Hurricane Dorian, efforts to reduce fishing pressure, and watershed interventions to reduce sedimentation.
CoralCarib
Cuba, Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica
The national-level models in Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica were used to select target sites for coral restoration through an extensive stakeholder consultation process.
The top 25% of coral refugia were used to identify priority refugia reefs in each country. The list of potential sites was narrowed through stakeholder consultation using criteria such as protection status, presence of local NGOs, government interest, accessibility, and presence of local threats such as pollution or coastal development.
One or two sites were selected in each country to be targeted by The Nature Conservancy and partners for restoration and threat abatement activities:
Baraderes-Cayemites in Haiti
Cienaga de Zapata and Havana in Cuba
East Portland Fish Sanctuary in Jamaica
Punta Cana and Bayahibe within the Southeast Marine Sanctuary in the Dominican Republic
Learn more about the CoralCarib project here.
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