Trade Lankinen? Is It Time For The Canucks to Sell High?

January 14th, 2025

Trevor Steunenberg

Harsh Truth #1: Kevin Lankinen is Not Very Good

Last season, Thatcher Demko was 6th in expected goals saved above average per 60 min among NHL goalies with at least 20 games played (this is from MoneyPuck.com, as are all expected goal stats in this article). Take a guess where Kevin Lankinen is this season (when we change the minimum number of games played to 10 since we’re about halfway through the season). 

He’s 26th. He’s been one of the worst starting goalies in the league this year. 

Now, you might say that the defensive corps playing in front of him is terrible, after all, it has been Quinn Hughes and 5 bottom pairing D-men for most of the season. The problem with this argument is that statistically speaking, the Canucks have been very good at preventing expected goals against. Let’s take a closer look at their defensive expected goal stats this season, (the league rank is in parenthesis).

The Canucks are actually quite good at preventing scoring chances, especially in 5 on 5 play. If they improved on the PK they could easily jump into the top 5 in expected goals allowed / 60 min, which is quite a bit better than you’d think based on just looking at the defencemen on their roster. Interestingly, their defensive numbers are generally better than last season, despite them probably having a worse defensive unit on paper. 

Side note: you might wonder why the Canucks have such a mediocre record his season given how good they have been at preventing expected goals. Well, part of this is that Kevin Lankinen has turned a lot of these expected goals against into actual goals against. The other reason is that, in 5 on 5 play, the Canucks are only generating 2.09 expected goals per 60 minutes, which puts them 31st in the NHL, behind only Detroit (2.06 expected goals per 60 min) who just fired their coach. The Canucks are currently 15th in actual goals per 60 min, which suggests they’ve been quite lucky in the offensive zone this year. Last season, the Canucks were 12th in this category which quite frankly shows how lucky they were to finish 6th in the league in the regular season. 

Anyway, the point I’m trying to make is that despite the Canucks defence corps looking pretty atrocious on paper, Kevin Lankinen has not actually been bombarded with high-quality scoring chances. I think a lot of fans see Lankinen give up a goal and say something along the lines of “That’s what happens when Forbort and Desharnais play together” when in reality it’s more of a Lankinen problem than a defence problem. For example, a defence pair of Forbort and Desharnais has allowed the 3rd fewest expected goals per 60 min of all defense pairings with at least 50 minutes played together (there are 314 qualifying defence pairs). In terms of actual goals, they’ve allowed the 225th fewest, suggesting that it is more of a goalie problem than a defence problem. 

Harsh Truth #2: If Demko is Injured, the Season is Lost

As previously mentioned, Thatcher Demko was 6th among qualifying goalies last year with 0.438 goals saved above expected per game. In other words, Demko saves a goal more than the average NHL goalie every 137 minutes (roughly 2 games and 1 period). Kevin Lankinen has saved 0.091 goals above expected per 60 min this season. For this section, the most relevant interpretation of this number is that it is 0.347 goals per 60 min worse than Thatcher Demko was last season. This corresponds to Lankinen allowing a goal more than last season’s Demko every 173 minutes (roughly 2 games and 2.75 periods). This might not sound like a lot, but it makes a huge difference for a team like the Canucks who are struggling for offense. This isn’t even meant to be a slight on Lankinen, it’s more to show that Demko (along with some offensive luck) carried this team to a very good record last season. 

Next, let’s compare this season’s and last season’s Canucks in a few stats. The league rank is in parenthesis:

This season, the Canucks have generated 0.51 fewer expected goals for / 60 min than last season. That’s a major difference and could easily be the difference between a team that an elite goalie can carry to a Stanley Cup and a team that might miss the playoffs altogether. It is worth noting that the Canucks have improved slightly on the defensive side compared to last year. Unfortunately, the defensive improvement of 0.08 expected goals against / 60 min has been more than cancelled out by the fact that the team’s goaltending has been significantly worse.

Overall, the Canucks just aren’t as good as they were last year. In fact, it isn’t really that close. Last season, the Canucks got some insane shooting luck and 51 games of Thatcher Demko, and they haven’t really gotten either of those this season. Looking at the expected and actual goal difference rows in the chart, the regression from last season is evident -- they’re worse in all but one category. We can argue all day about how close to winning the Stanley Cup the Canucks are this year and how far they would’ve gone last year if Demko was healthy in the playoffs, but I think it’s pretty clear this year’s team is worse and has been significantly less lucky than last year’s (they are 0.43 expected and 0.84 actual goals per game worse).

The only conceivable way the Canucks can make it further in the playoffs than they did last year is if they get significantly better playoff goaltending than they did last year. That should be pretty much guaranteed if Demko stays healthy. In last year’s playoffs, Arturs Silovs saved 0.02 goals under expected per game which was, statistically speaking, 2nd worst of any starting goalie that made it to the second round (he was better than only Alexandar Georgiev). Demko will be a major improvement on that, and the only questions will be whether he can stay healthy and if the Canucks are good enough (or will get lucky enough) offensively to make a serious run. If Demko gets injured, the Canucks have no hope of going further in the playoffs than they did last year regardless of who is in net, whether it is Kevin Lankinen, Arturs Silovs, Nikita Tolopilo, or any other non-elite goaltender they acquire between now and the playoffs. And if they don’t win the cup, the clock keeps ticking. JT Miller gets a year older, Quinn Hughes and Thatcher Demko get a year closer to either getting major raises or leaving as UFAs, and JT Miller and Elias Pettersson’s hate for each other grows even more.   

Harsh Truth #3: The Canucks Should Absolutely NOT Re-Sign Kevin Lankinen

There are several reasons why Kevin Lankinen should not be re-signed by the Canucks. First, he will probably get paid more than his play warrants. We already looked at how his advanced stats put him in the bottom tier of starting goalies. Having said that, when you actually watch him, it seems as though he makes a lot of top-tier saves. I think the disparity here is at least partially because he is frequently out of position, so saves that should be routine instead look incredible. You don’t have to watch long to see him overslide cross-ice passes and shots that are going wide, leaving him one pass away from giving up a wide-open net. There are still plenty of GMs who largely ignore advanced stats (such as expected goal-related stats), and Lankinen’s .906 SV% and 2.95 GAA both seem very good on the surface. Also, the fact that the Canucks defence is not highly regarded will help his case come free agency.

Harsh Truths #1 and #2 are also relevant here. The Canucks aren’t going to be good enough in the next few years to be able to compete without elite goaltending. This isn’t a slight on the Canucks or Patrik Allvin, a lot of teams can’t compete without an elite goalie. Lankinen will be 30 by the start of next season, and though goalies can maintain a high level into their mid to late 30s, Lankinen has never been an elite goalie so it’s unlikely he will start in the latter stages of his career. 

The Canucks will already be facing an uphill battle to improve their roster this offseason. They only have $11.4M in cap space right now (according to Puck Pedia) and Brock Boeser and Pius Suter are both set to be UFAs on July 1 and will either get a huge raises, leave for free, or be traded and need replacing. Again, the Canucks have the second-fewest expected goals per 60 min in the NHL, so improvements will have to be made to the forward group even if Boeser and Suter are brought back. With the offensive struggles the Canucks have had, Allvin spending valuable cap space on a backup goalie with mediocre advanced numbers is irresponsible and is not good roster management. Even considering Demko’s injury history, the Canucks should be able to find a cost-effective backup goalie in free agency who can step in and share the net with Arturs Silovs if/when Demko is unavailable. If Demko gets hurt in the playoffs the season is over, even if Lankinen is the backup. If Demko gets hurt for an extended period of time in the regular season and the Canucks are good enough to compete for a Stanley Cup, they should be good enough to weather the storm for a few weeks/months with an average backup and Silovs sharing the net for that period. Thus for the Canucks to maximize their chances of making a serious cup run, they should avoid spending cap dollars on a backup goalie. If that backup goalie ends up having to play in the playoffs the season is over anyway. They may as well spend that money on skaters who can play a role in a serious playoff run. 

As mentioned earlier, trading Lankinen is undoubtedly an unpopular opinion. To be honest, you probably wouldn’t get a ton for him. Having said that, if the Canucks are not going to re-sign him (and I believe they shouldn’t), they may as well get a roster player or a draft pick/prospect to either develop or flip for a roster player. I also believe that any hope the Canucks have of making a serious push for the Stanley Cup in the next several years relies on the long-term health of Thatcher Demko; if he keeps getting injured the Canucks’ potential to contend is greatly reduced, possibly even eliminated entirely. Much like the Canucks long-term Stanley Cup chances, my reasoning heavily lies on Demko’s long-term health: if Demko is healthy, spending money on Lankinen is a waste, and if he’s not healthy, the Canucks have no hope anyway.