November 19th, 2024
JC Clemas
Nils Höglander has not been playing well this season.
He knows it. Tocchet knows it. We know it.
He hasn’t been making the right decisions with the puck. He’s been missing plays that should be made. He’s taken unnecessary penalties that have come back to damage the team (especially in the offensive zone). His production has dropped dramatically, with just 2 goals and 3 assists through the first 17 games of this season. At this point, it’s clear the pressure to perform is getting to his head. His early struggles have led a lot of Canucks fans to nominate him as a trade candidate. And why not? As a young guy with great scoring ability, his value would be pretty high and he could be a main piece that we use during the trade deadline for the top-4 defenseman we so desperately need. Looking at the rest of the lineup, there are not many players the Canucks could benefit from getting rid of. Canucks management seems pretty unwilling to part with their Swedish defensive prospects of Elias Pettersson and Tom Willander. Does this mean that Höglander is going to be the odd one out?
Hopefully not, and the reason why is simple: you do not trade a 23-year-old who is coming off a 24-goal season. Especially not after just 17 games of the season. Trading Kuzmenko after his 39-goal season made sense: he was in his prime at that point, and if he didn’t fit into Tocchet’s system then, he was never going to. We already know that Höglander can fit into Tocchet’s system. He tries hard on both ends of the ice, he’s physical, forechecks hard, and definitely has a spot in this lineup. Not only that, but the Canucks already have him locked up for 3 more years after this one on a very team-friendly deal (3x3). Höglander has proven that he can get the ball rolling on the 4th line, scoring at a rapid pace while facing those bottom-line minutes last season. When he was promoted to a higher spot in the lineup, he made the most of it. All 24 of his goals came at even-strength, the exact same amount that Brock Boeser had. That 5-on-5 scoring is difficult to trade away.
Trading young guys may make the championship odds stronger in the short run, but it also makes the window a lot smaller. Especially when the young guy you’re trading has already proven to be an effective scorer. Failure is essential to eventually succeed in this league. If you look at the past Stanley Cup winners, all had to face heartbreak in the playoffs to eventually reach eternal glory. Florida lost in the finals the year before they won. Tampa Bay got humiliated in 2019 and then won the next two seasons. Even Vegas had 4 playoff exits in the 5 years before they won. This past season, the Canucks failed in the 2nd round— and that’s okay. It’s normal. They gave a very solid effort as a team on the brink of the hospital against a strong Edmonton team (who had already faced their share of playoff failure).
The silver lining of the loss was that it gave our core another chance to grow accustomed to the playoffs. It also provided useful experience for the supporting cast, some of which had never seen NHL playoff ice before. Höglander was one of these guys. He struggled through both rounds but gained valuable experience that he can use in the next years to come. Failing with your young guys just makes your chances stronger in the next seasons. If we were in the twilight years of our championship window, maybe I’d be on board to trade Höglander. But there is no need to make a trade out of pure desperation at this point in time. I see a lot of potential in Höglander, and I know he has what it takes to get back to form. Aside from Miller, our core is still young. I do not see our window closing anytime soon, and if the team keeps Höglander around as a middle-6 option, I promise it will pay off. The Canucks’ forward depth is probably their biggest strength in comparison to the other teams in the league. Fully healthy, and playing to the best of their ability, Vancouver easily has a top 5 forward depth in the league. I would even go as far as to say top 3. Höglander is a big part of this.
He’s currently back on the 4th line, playing under 12 minutes in each of the past 4 games. I think that’s okay for now, while he tries to pick his game back up. The duo of Räty and Höglander is one that I like and one that can prove to be really effective for the Canucks as they grow together. Räty has been a very solid player for Vancouver in his 10 games, and while he hasn’t been producing too much so far, I think he can help to get his linemate out of his shell with smart play in both zones. Höglander is going to figure it out. I think he just has to get one puck in the net to boost his confidence. Maybe he can do it with a Michigan to really get his confidence back (I joke, but we know he’s capable). The Canucks’ fanbase gives up on players far too early. In this case, with a guy so young who was so good for us last season, I would advise everyone to just give it some time. The Canucks have been very patient with Höglander’s development to this point in his career, giving him a year-long stint in Abbotsford a couple of seasons ago that helped him get his scoring touch back. I want to think they won’t give up on him at this point. However, as we all know, the Canucks management is not scared to make a big move. I can only hope that Nils Höglander will still be wearing blue and green when we pass the trade deadline in March.