May 7th, 2024
Alex Rickman
After successfully disposing of the Nashville Predators in six games, the Canucks are set for a date with the Edmonton Oilers in the second round. While Vancouver swept the season series against Edmonton in the regular season, anything can happen in the playoffs, so what can we expect from this series? Let’s take a look at a few factors that may determine the playoff fates of these two teams, and who some of the key players will be for each organization.
First Round Performance
While Edmonton looked better in their five-game series win over Los Angeles than Vancouver did in their matchup with Nashville, there are more factors at play that could potentially explain why things happened the way they did. Starting with Edmonton, the Kings are a team that the Oilers have performed very well against both in the regular season and in recent playoff performances. Edmonton’s dynamic offensive game was always going to give the Kings a problem, and LA’s inability to get back into games when they fell behind had them doomed from the start. While you can’t fully ignore the Oilers' series against the Kings, it’s important to understand that things were stacked against LA from the beginning and that the Kings' style of play simply cannot compete with Edmonton when it matters most.
The Canucks, however, seem far better suited to give Edmonton a challenge in the playoffs, in spite of some scary moments in the series against the Preds. Many of the Canucks problems were rooted in an inability to get shots through to the Nashville net, along with some heroic performances from Jusse Saros to keep the Canucks humble. Against an Edmonton team with a less stingy defence than that of the Predators, it’s hard to see this being as big of a problem for the Canucks in round two. This by no means gives the Canucks offence any excuse to not continue working on improving some of their questionable play in the offensive zone, but it’s hard to see the Oilers and their sometimes shaky defence give Vancouver the same challenges Nashville did. If Vancouver can sharpen up their offensive game while playing a weaker defensive team than the Nashville Predators, fans need not worry about the struggle to test the goalie in the first round.
Goalies
Oilers goaltender Stuart Skinner performed well in the first round against the Kings but has been a below-average playoff performer during his short NHL career. Like any goaltender, Skinner’s performance often comes down to what his defence is capable of doing in front of him, which was on full display early in the season when the Oilers were, to put it lightly, a hot mess. Skinner was putting up some of the worst numbers in the NHL before Kris Knoblauch replaced Jay Woodcroft as Oilers' head coach but has since been one of the league's steadier netminders, giving Edmonton some much-needed stability in goal. This coincided with a drastic change in play for Edmonton, including the Oilers' defence becoming a far less leaky unit than they had been before. If the Oilers blueline can avoid giving up chance after chance to the Canucks, Skinner will likely be able to put the Oilers in a position to win some games, but without some much-needed help from his defence, Skinner may find himself getting lit up like he has been by the Canucks several times this year.
Meanwhile, in the Canucks net, it’s hard to know what to expect. In his three playoff starts, Arturs Silovs has looked incredible, posting a .938 save percentage (SV%) and shutting Nashville out in the Canucks game-six triumph. However, his lack of experience is still something of a concern, but lucky for the Canucks, Casey Desmith has returned from his injury and will be ready to go in the unlikely event that Silovs is unable to replicate his performances against the Preds. Thatcher Demko may also be able to return to the lineup at some point in this series, although it’s not guaranteed, which could help provide the Canucks with a boost in the final few games of the round. Overall, the Canucks goaltending situation is confusing at the moment and may be somewhat concerning to those looking in from the outside. However, goaltending is yet to be an issue despite the Canucks depleted ranks this postseason, so it’s hard to see a reason to begin worrying now.
Mentality
This is an area where I see the Canucks having a clear-cut advantage over the Oilers, and could ultimately become a deciding factor in who moves on to the third round. The Oilers are yet to beat the Canucks this season, and while the regular season has very little to do with what happens when the playoffs come around, this is something that Vancouver can take advantage of in order to put themselves at a mental advantage over Edmonton. Strong starts to games could have the Oilers seeing the ghosts of October when the Canucks put eight goals past Jack Campbell and Stuart Skinner in both teams' first game of the season. In all three games between these two teams in the first half of the season, and still to some extent in their late-season meeting, the Canucks very easily got under the Oilers skin, and it proved costly for the frazzled Oilers teams we saw on these nights.
To put it frankly, Edmonton are not the strongest team when it comes to keeping their composure under pressure, which has shown in several disappointing playoff exits in recent years. If the Canucks can jump on the Oilers early, and play the heavy brand of hockey we’ve become accustomed to under the leadership of Rick Tocchet, it’s entirely possible that the Oilers will fall back to the ways of past years. If this happens, the Canucks will have a strong opportunity to take advantage of a poorly structured defence and some bad penalties. However, if the Canucks are unable to get the Oilers uncomfortable out there, Vancouver will have a tall task ahead of them.
Doubters to Believers
Experts are broadly picking against the Canucks to win this series. Despite the Canucks perfect regular season record against Edmonton and the Pacific Division title being claimed by the Canucks, none of this seems to be considered enough to get past McDavid and Co. in a seven-game series. People have doubted the Canucks all season long. From claims that the Canucks hot start to the year would wear off and that they would still find a way to miss the playoffs to those declaring the Canucks the most likely team to be upset in the first round of the playoffs, many have refused to take Vancouver seriously in spite of their successes this year. Now, the Canucks have the ultimate chance to prove the doubters wrong.
Edmonton is no pushover. No team makes it to this point in the season by being a pushover. This won’t be an easy series for the Canucks, but this is absolutely a winnable one, and by claiming a spot in the conference final for the first time since 2011, Vancouver can prove to everyone who has doubted them all along that they were wrong to doubt what the Canucks can do. To go out there and send an Oilers team that everyone is picking over Vancouver packing would send a clear message to everyone that this Canucks team is here and not to be taken lightly by anyone, no matter who’s on their roster.
Prediction
A few factors on each side will determine this series, and it’s hard to anticipate how things will play out once each team hits the ice, but I’m feeling good about the Canucks chances to take this one. If the Canucks can get in the Oilers heads and play the game that we know that they’re capable of playing, I predict that the Canucks will take this series in six games. This is a series that could wind up taking seven games to settle, but with some strong performances, there’s no reason to believe that the Canucks can’t find a way to take this series home and move on for a chance to play for a shot at the final.