Is it Over? What Needs to Happen for the Canucks to Make the Playoffs

March 27th, 2025

JC Clemas

Well, it certainly doesn’t look great.

The St. Louis Blues have come out of the 4 Nations break absolutely flying, with a 13-2-2 record since the event. They’re also on an active 7 game win streak, where Vancouver may be the most difficult opponent they’ve faced in that time. Their schedule from now to the end of the season is STILL easy, so it’s looking more likely than not that they will claim a wild card spot. They currently hold the 2nd spot, with 83 points in 73 games.

At the same time, the Calgary Flames have been on a good stretch recently. Thanks in part to back-to-back Nazem Kadri overtime winners, the Flames find themselves on a 4 game win streak. After having been carried by Dustin Wolf for the better part of the past 3 months, they seem to be finding their goal-scoring again, with 13 goals in their past 3 games. The Flames stand at 79 points in 70 games, or 2 wins behind St. Louis with 3 games in hand. Their destiny could rest in their own hands if they play it right.

The Utah Hockey Club have been a confusing team all season. Sometimes, they go on a stretch where they seem indestructible, and tear through any opposition in their way (including the Canucks 3 times). Then, there are times where they lose 5-1 to the Red Wings. The Hockey Club find themselves with 75 points in 71 games, landing 4 wins behind St. Louis with 2 games in hand. They’re going to need to go on a very good stretch to end the season, as right now, it looks a little bit lost.

Entering the conversation due to the Blues’ hot stretch are the Minnesota Wild. The Wild got off to an insane start to the season, competing with Winnipeg for the 1st spot in the league in the early goings. Then, Kirill Kaprizov got injured, and the team hasn’t been the same since. They’ve gone just 11-10-1 since their star went down. While this is good enough to keep them afloat, it’s not good enough to keep them comfortably in their 1st wild card spot. Minnesota has 85 points in 72 games, so they’re still in the driver’s seat, but they aren’t particularly safe yet.

Then, we get to the Canucks.

I don’t really have to explain how dismal this season has been. After winning the Pacific division in 2023/24, a year where everything went right, this season is pretty much the opposite. There have been times when the Canucks have gotten themselves into a playoff spot, and it seemed like they’d finally just be comfortable, and then they lose a couple games in a row and surrender their spot.

Currently, the team rests at 80 points in 72 games. Here’s how that stacks up against the other 4 teams I’ve named:

5 points behind Minnesota with the same number of games played.

3 points behind St. Louis with 1 game in hand.

1 point ahead of Calgary with 2 more games played.

3 points ahead of Utah with 1 more game played.

The only team of these that they have a good position on is Utah, which is essentially meaningless because Utah is practically out of it at this point. The Canucks have backed themselves into a corner, and it’s not looking like one that they can get out of easily. Here is how the team can still make playoffs:

Leapfrog Calgary

At this point, the idea of both the Canucks and Flames making the playoffs is pretty much out of the question. They’d each have to pass both St. Louis AND Minnesota, and they have a lot of ground to make up if they were to do so. So, the Canucks absolutely have to finish the season ahead of Calgary if they’re going to make the playoffs.

However many games Calgary wins of their last 12, Vancouver has to win the same amount to stay ahead of them in the standings. This is especially difficult when you remember that Calgary has two extra games to play.

It’s hard to factor overtime games into this question, but seemingly half of every game either of these teams plays heads to the extra frame. For the purpose of not going through 20 different ending scenarios, we’ll pretend that neither team racks up another overtime loss from now until the end of the season.

Basically, if Calgary manages to go 6-6 to end the year, the Canucks would have to go 6-4 to stay ahead of them. If they go 7-5, Vancouver has to go 7-3. And if the Flames manage to get 8 wins in their last 12 games, the Canucks would need 8 in their last 10. Yikes.

It’s not entirely out of the question that the Flames can be doused in the late parts of the season, but passing them in the standings will only go so far. It would only put the Canucks in that last spot outside of the playoffs, meaning that they’d also have to…

Pass St. Louis or Minnesota

This is a tall task at this point.

They do have the game in hand over St. Louis, so it’s feasible, but it’s not looking good. Let’s look at their path to passing the Blues first.

Whatever the Blues do, the Canucks need 2 more wins than them to end this season. St. Louis has 9 games left in the season. If they win 5 of those, they’d end the season with 93 points. To pass that, the Canucks would need to win 7 of their last 10, which would put them at 94 points. Unfortunately, with the streak St. Louis is on right now and the fact their schedule doesn’t exactly get much harder, it’s very likely that they win more than that. If they win 6 of those 9, it once again puts the Canucks in a position where they’d have to win 8 of their last 10 games. Not incredible.

As for Minnesota, I’ll point out again that they are very much in control of their own destiny at this point. In this scenario, the Canucks would have to win 3 more games than the Wild to end the season if they wish to pass them. It seems out of reach. If Minnesota wins just 5 of their last 10 games, the Canucks would once again need 8 wins in their last 10 to pass the team. Minnesota doesn’t have the most difficult schedule to end the season, so it’s not looking good.

The Canucks and Wild play in Vancouver’s game 80 on April 12th, and there’s certainly a pathway for that to be an important one. Maybe Minnesota can go on a slide to end the season? It’s not entirely out of the question.

Season Ending Records That Get the Canucks to the Playoffs

To summarize, the Canucks need an equal number of wins as Calgary until the end of the season (in 2 less games), and either 2 more wins than St. Louis or 3 more wins than Minnesota. It’s not a great position, but it’s still possible. Here are outcomes that get the Canucks into the dance:

Calgary: 6-6-0 (91 points)

St. Louis: 4-5-0 (91 points) or Minnesota: 3-7-0 (91 points)

Utah: 8-3-0 (91 points)

Vancouver: 6-4-0 (92 points)

Or

Calgary: 7-5-0 (93 points)

St. Louis: 5-4-0 (93 points) or Minnesota: 4-6-0 (93 points)

Utah: 9-2-0 (93 points)

Vancouver: 7-3-0 (94 points)

And finally, if we’re delusional

Calgary: 8-4-0 (95 points)

St. Louis: 6-3-0 (95 points) or Minnesota: 5-5-0 (95 points)

Utah: 10-1-0 (95 points) (Not happening)

Vancouver: 8-2-0 (96 points) (Also not happening)

The Canucks need to lock in. They’ve gotten some valuable contributions recently, most notably from Brock Boeser, but they need more. Elias Pettersson (the forward) and Nils Höglander were injured in Saturday’s game against the Rangers and are at least out for the last 2 games on the road trip. They squeaked out a win against the Devils in a shootout, but it wasn’t the most convincing win ever. The game against the Islanders looked good in terms of scoring, but there were still defensive lapses, and the game could’ve easily gone the other way if not for our goalie. Demko being back is huge, and if the Canucks are going to make the playoffs, I could see it being from a Thatcher Demko miracle run.

All 4 other teams that I mentioned are playing tonight, so there will be a lot of scoreboard watching for Canucks fans. Vancouver is in action against the Blue Jackets on Friday night, with a 4:00 PST start time. The Jackets haven’t been great recently and are in an equally intense wild card battle in the Eastern Conference. Both teams will be coming off a win against the Islanders.

Gotta get that one.