Ideal Offseason: Part 4

June 28th, 2024

Isaac Henry

The 2023-2024 season was undoubtedly a massive one for the Vancouver Canucks, despite a rather disappointing ending. However, this season could prove to be either a good season in a mediocre period, or an important statement season to spark a window of cup contention. That will rest heavily on the moves, contract extensions, and decisions to move on from players made in this vital offseason. Go read Ideal Offseason parts 1 through 3 for Alex Rickman, Trevor Steunenberg, and Zach Mason’s opinions on the right moves for the Canucks, and let me walk you through mine here. Please note that this will be done from the perspective of before the offseason began with a section at the end regarding the early moves that have already been completed.

Overall Strategy

With the Canucks having a significant improvement on really every season since the Sedins, I think that the Canucks should devote heavy resources towards trying to bring back as much of this team as possible. As fantastic a core as the Canucks have with Miller, Pettersson, Hughes, Demko, and Boeser, they failed over several seasons to yield the success that the team has shown this season without strong depth all along the lineup. That’s why it’s no coincidence that this unprecedented season for the Canucks was marked by the emergence of fantastic production lower down the lineup through lines such as Joshua-Blueger-Garland, individual consistent performances from additions like Pius Suter and Carson Soucy, and top-tier backup goaltending between Casey DeSmith in the regular season and Arturs Silovs when thrust into an emergency role in the postseason. The mid-season trades to acquire Nikita Zadorov and Elias Lindholm from Calgary also proved to be stellar, particularly in the playoffs. Because of how important these depth players were, the theme of the Canucks offseason should be trying to retain as many of these pieces as possible without overpaying given the strenuous cap constraints the team is currently facing. Doing so significantly raises the Canucks’ floor for next season and allows this team to continue to grow through increased production from the overwhelmingly young core without throwing away the building blocks that supported them. I will now walk you through the specific moves I would attempt to make if I were in Patrik Allvin’s position, with the fantastic support of capfriendly.com (go f*ck yourself Washington Capitals).

Goaltending

Starting in the goal crease, the way to go for next season seemed very straightforward with Thatcher Demko putting up top of league-level numbers and new signing Casey DeSmith providing excellent stability as a backup that had been much missed since when Thatcher Demko himself was backing up Jacob Markstrom. But then came the late-season injury to Demko which thrust DeSmith into action that saw his numbers begin to drop off and also gave Arturs Silovs a few looks. While Silovs showed some promise, it didn’t seem significant enough to alter the offseason plan for the Canucks, that was until injury struck Demko again forcing DeSmith and Silovs into crucial action in the playoffs. After a magnificent game 3 performance in round 1 from DeSmith, stopping 29/30, he unfortunately sustained a minor injury which opened the door for Silovs. Silovs took on the role and never looked back, going 5-5 with a .898 save percentage and -0.2 goals saved above expected, even stealing the Canucks games at times including a 1-0 game 6 shutout to end Nashville. It was certainly more than can be expected of a third or backup goaltender and began to show Silovs’ high potential which we’d seen glimpses of in the 2023 IIHF World Championship where he led Latvia on home ice to their first-ever medal, winning bronze and taking the tournament MVP award over several more than just established NHLers. While the emotional point of view on Silovs has garnered support for him becoming a tandem starter with Demko for next season, the stats show that this isn’t a rational approach, especially given the quality Demko possesses. Nonetheless, Silovs has shown his worth to be in the NHL for the following season and should be the easy pick to backup Demko. 

This all lines up very unfortunately for DeSmith, coming off a fabulous season for a backup. DeSmith was personally my unsung hero of the season due to his consistency and improvement on the likes of Spencer Martin and Collin Delia, but at 32 years old compared to a 23-year-old Silovs, Casey must unfortunately walk. As for Silovs, he himself is out of contract (though as an RFA). I have the Canucks re-signing Silovs for 2 years at $1 million per season. Despite his promise, Silovs has still only played 19 NHL games between the regular season and playoffs and his price should not be significantly inflated. 2 years gives him a chance to continue to develop before getting a new contract that should better match a price he is deserving of for his future. As mentioned Silovs should not be a tandem starter, but he should still get significant backup minutes. This is a win-win situation between him and Demko as it allows Silovs more opportunity to develop and prove his worth to eventually be traded to somewhere where he can start, but also gives the very valuable but injury-prone Demko less usage to allow him to remain at peak fitness level come playoff time and avoid a repeat of what happened this season.

Defence

At the back end, the Canucks come off their most sturdy defensive season in years with a handful of free agents. Filip Hronek is an RFA while Nikita Zadorov, Tyler Myers, Ian Cole, and Mark Friedman are all UFAs. To begin with I think Tyler Myers re-signing is an easy decision to make. While Myers has faced lots of hate in his Canucks career, it mainly stemmed from the price he was signed at, a whopping $6 million a year. While his performances were an aspect of the frustration, they improved this year. Though still not immune to the occasional mistake, Myers has evened out well as a pretty average bottom 4 defenceman in the NHL. Beyond his play on the ice, Myers is now also one of the longest-serving players on the current roster and has taken up a leadership position, donning the ‘A’ on his jersey on and off throughout his time in Vancouver. Myers has mentioned he would take a discount to remain here, and a $3 million by 3-year contract should be enough to convince the 34-year-old to stay into the twilight of his career. 

With Myers signed the defensive contracts break themselves down into two separate issues. Firstly, there is the top end between Hronek and Zadorov. It is unlikely both remain as spending the money required to bring Zadorov back as a middle-pairing defenceman in addition to Hronek would likely hamper the ability to spend on a winger for Pettersson. If Zadorov is brought back it would likely be to play top pair minutes, or alongside a new player to partner Hughes who would be a reasonable downgrade on Hronek. While Zadorov was elite in all aspects in the playoffs and Hronek regressed from his hot start to the season, this should still be a no-brainer once recency bias is taken away. As good as Zadorov was, it was for a short period and he has never reached this level sustainably for multiple seasons across his career. Signing Zadorov to a contract like $6 million in 6 years is a predictable mistake waiting to happen, particularly if it means being more financially uptight with Hronek. Even though he’d potentially take a cheaper price to stay in Vancouver - a place he’s mentioned how much he’s enjoyed - $5.5 million per year could still prove strenuous to the rest of the offseason and age poorly as a contract itself. Hronek on the other hand is suffering from a different type of recency bias, a negative one. Looking at his season as a whole, Hronek finished 21st in defencemen scoring 48 points, 7th among defencemen in +/- at +33, and was a solid player on both sides of the puck. Hronek also has a solid past foundation with 38 and 39 points in each year before this season on a Detroit team much worse than this Vancouver one where he was the main defenceman at times. Many will be quick to point out that Hronek’s numbers are bolstered from playing alongside Quinn Hughes, but this is far from a one-way avenue. Hughes’s play also improved significantly playing with Hronek as it gave him a partner he could combine with to make offensive plays as opposed to stay-at-home defencemen like Chris Tanev, Travis Hamonic, and Luke Schenn who he has traditionally played with. Hughes’s point total showed a higher increase from his previous career best (76 to 92, an increase of 16, or 21%) than Hronek's (39 to 48, an increase of 9, or 18.75%). Regardless, with giving Hughes a long-term partner being something quite influential for the future, Hronek over Zadorov is the easy choice. Despite rumours of a contract starting with an 8, I project the Canucks signing Hronek to a $7.25 million 6-year contract, a high but not unworthy price for the Czechia native.

Letting Zadorov walk means the need to find a replacement who can play good middle and bottom pairing minutes and be relied on in important defensive situations. While numerous players across the league fit the bill, it is hard not to get romantic about a potential reunion with Canucks legend and fan favourite Christopher Tanev. Tanev joined the Canucks undrafted for the 2011 playoff run and remained until 2020 where he scored the overtime series winner in the bubble play-in series against Minnesota. While his departure seemed a necessary parting of ways at the time, 4 seasons later with the Canucks in a competitive position and Tanev out of contract it seems a return could be on the cards. While not as extravagant as Big Z in the way he defends, Tanev is no stranger to a physical game and is also one of the best-shot blockers in the league. He is an elite defensive defenceman and the type of presence who could help with the development of a player like Noah Juulsen. I have the Canucks signing him to a 3 year-by $3.5 million contract to see him toward retirement in the place he deserves to end his career. 

The other defensive issue is that of the 6th defenceman in the lineup. Ian Cole filled the role for the majority of the season with the Canucks and was alright. Then the playoffs came around and Cole had an absolute disaster of a series against Edmonton filled with numerous costly mistakes. While he may be overheated due to that short span of horrific form, moving on from Cole, a player brought in for moments like that Edmonton series, is the right move given the emergence of Noah Juulsen as a strong defensive defenceman throughout the season. While his inexperience shone through occasionally, Juulsen also showed bright spots with his willingness to get in front of shots, lay the body, and his active stick, particularly on the penalty kill. Due to the fact, he is still developing, the Canucks should bring in a more experienced bottom-pairing defenceman to challenge him and fight for a spot, hopefully getting the best out of each other in the process. Any defenceman under $1 million who isn’t a costly defensive presence should do the trick for this. I have the Canucks getting UFA and former St. Louis Blue Calle Rosen on a 2 years by $800,000 per year contract. In addition to that, I have the Canucks re-signing Mark Friedman who came over in a trade mid-season for depth. Friedman was a solid option whenever called upon to fill in and should be one of the best 8th defenceman options in the league if the Canucks come across an injury crisis. I believe a 2-year by $800,000 AAV two-way contract for Friedman should get the job done. This leaves the Canucks with a strong defensive ranks anchored by a top pair of Hughes and Hronek, a versatile bottom 4 of Carson Soucy, Tyler Myers, Chris Tanev, and Calle Rosen / Noah Juulsen, and great AHL depth with the likes of Mark Friedman and Akita Hirose. 

Forwards

Offensively, the season for the Canucks was also overwhelmingly positive. Miller and Boeser had career years, depth production was fantastic, and Nils Höglander broke out into the top 6 players we’ve been waiting for him to be. Despite this, the year ended with one clear hole, a top 6 winger to play with Elias Pettersson. Despite an overall positive season putting up 89 points, Petey was poor after the all-star break, failing to keep up with his early season point production that had him looking like an outside contender for the Hart could he have remained at that level? Then come playoff time his performances fell even further, not helped in any way by his linemate Nils Höglander combining with him to be the two most disappointing players in the playoffs. It became evident they were missing one key piece that Pettersson could combine with. 

That piece could have been Ilya Mikheyev, a player the Canucks originally brought in to play alongside Pettersson and Kuzmenko who despite an amazing start to the season with 6 goals and 3 assists in his first 11 games, ended the year with a despicable 1 goal in his last 63 games. The big issue with Mikheyev is that he is making $4.75 million a year for another two seasons, significantly hindering the ability to bring in a player who can play with Pettersson more effectively. The Canucks need a way to dump Mikheyev, and unfortunately, contract buyout does not seem to be a viable option given the OEL dead cap which comes in at close to $5 million in 2 of the 4 seasons where Mikheyev’s buyout would also take a hit. Therefore, the Canucks have to look for a trade partner, a task made harder by a 12-team no-trade clause. Given that Mikheyev's contract was signed in the summer of 2022, the St. Louis Blues are a team that is unlikely to be on the no-trade list but could be in the position to take on a player like Mikheyev. They are in the beginning of a rebuild but still have a roster that could make the playoffs, almost a team in no man’s land. Mikheyev fits this as he is not a bust of a player who does not deserve to be in the NHL but rather an alright player on a poor contract, coming off a down year who could see rejuvenation in a middle-six role in a new market. That rejuvenation could even possibly come in Vancouver but with the state of the Canucks currently, they are in no place to take chances and find that out. A 2025 2nd round pick should be enough for the Blues to take Mikheyev off of the Canucks’ hands, sending a 5th-rounder back for good measure. 

As for the replacement, this is the most vital move of the offseason. Management has mentioned the need for speed in this position, and youth is implied given the players they are looking to complement with the new signing. This can rule out a couple of rumours such as Vegas’s Jonathan Marchessault (who is also hated in Vancouver) and former Canuck and Pettersson linemate Tyler Toffoli. Jordan Eberle and Drake Batherson are players who I think could be good fits but aren’t very likely to leave their current clubs with Eberle specifically signing a recent extension just down the I-5 in Seattle. Martin Necas is arguably the most likely rumoured option and a player who would be a fine fit, but I’d like the Canucks to go in another direction and look to bring in Pavel Buchnevich from St. Louis (yes it is purely coincidental that this is my third offseason move involving a player to or from the Blues). Buchnevich at 29 is a player who could prove to be useful for the next few seasons in the pursuit of a Stanley Cup. He is a physical and fast player and has the goal-scoring ability to complement Pettersson. Having racked up 206 points in 216 games in his 3 seasons in St. Louis, he is also just the right level of player needed to be brought in. Given the position the Blues are in that I previously touched on, they have no reason to be stubborn about parting with the Russians if the right offer comes in to help their future. While Lekkerimäki and Willander seem to be untouchable prospects, the Canucks third highest-rated prospect Elias Pettersson (the defenceman) along with a 1st round pick in next year’s draft should be enough to provide a solid trade base. Adding in mid-tier prospect Ty Mueller and a one-round trade-up exchange with a late draft pick should be enough to push the Blues over the line and bring Buch to the West Coast. Buchnevich is making $5.8 million through the end of this upcoming season where the Canucks can choose to extend him or turn to Jonathan Lekkerimäki who should by then be NHL-ready. While conducting research for this article, I omitted Jake Guentzel (a much bigger name than anyone I mentioned) as a potential player to bring in as I thought the price and competition would prove the Canucks to be an unrealistic destination for him despite the Pittsburgh Penguins connections that run deep in this management group. Recent reports are showing that it might not be so unrealistic with a Twitter user even claiming that Guentzel is looking at property on the North Shore. While I still believe this all coming together is rather unlikely, I support the idea of the Canucks taking a run at Guentzel, even if it means supplementing the high contract by not re-signing a player like Dakota Joshua. While I am a big advocate of bringing back our depth guys, Guentzel is of a level that could justify altering my approach. With all that said I am more than happy with Buchnevich and believe he is a realistic target for the team to pursue. 

With the top 6 sorted, the focus shifts towards the guys further down the lineup. Getting Lindholm out of the way, the Canucks should take a run at extending him without overpaying given that he was of a big help to the team in the playoffs. However, it seems inevitable Lindholm will get a higher payday at another successful team that is looking for a player that matches his profile. The Canucks final offer to date was a $7 million by 7-year contract which I agree should be the maximum. As good as Lindholm was in the playoffs alongside Garland and Joshua, Blueger was elite with them earlier in the season, even putting that line in the top 10 in xG-xGA in the league. Those three turned into a line that could be leaned on by the Canucks while it was together to come up with the difference in a close game and they should do everything to reunite it with only Garland still under contract. Teddy Blueger should be a no-brainer, being flexible in a 3rd or 4th line center role and an excellent penalty killer. Coming off a $1.9 million contract where the Canucks got what they paid for, he shouldn’t be too hard to keep around with a 3-year, $2.25 million AAV deal that I would sign him to. Joshua on the other hand is much more tricky. The 28-year-old just came off a career breakout year in which he put up over 0.5 points per game compared to a prior career rate of just around 0.26, in addition to leading forwards in hits before a late-season injury, and a 4-goal and 4 assists showing in 13 playoff games. Joshua’s total career earnings sit under $4 million and after the season he’s had, he has the opportunity to get a payday to set himself and his family up well for the end of his career. This obviously makes keeping him difficult given that competition may have much less cap pressure and the ability to pay him more money, but I still believe the Canucks should give extending Dak their best shot. For all the talk about “finding the next Dakota Joshua” there are never any guarantees, and the risk of losing a contributor like him when the Canucks are trying to build on last season is a big one. While it seems possible he could get a 4 year by $4 million per year contract somewhere else, call me an optimist as I believe and hope Joshua will stay for 4 years at $3.75 million per year. 

Like Blueger, another player out of contract who I don’t think should be too difficult to re-sign is Sam Lafferty. Lafferty’s performances got worse over the season after a great start but still ended the year on a decent 24 points while being solid defensively. Lafferty is one of the better 4th liners in the league and though by no means crucial is somebody you’d like to keep around, especially given that he can also jump up in the lineup for flexibility having been occasionally utilized with Elias Pettersson. Coming off a 2-year by $1.15 million a year contract, a 2-year extension at $1.3 million a year seems practical. Beyond the best starting lineup itself, I’d like to see the extensions of Linus Karlsson and Sheldon Dries. Karlsson, I see staying at an $800,000 per year deal over 2 years. Not only is he a decent borderline lineup player to have, but he also has the potential to be more should he be able to improve given his past performances in both Sweden and the AHL. Dries on the other hand looks less likely to return which I find unfortunate. He had a solid 2022-23 year in the NHL and previously put up good numbers in the AHL. Even though he is now 30, I thought Dries deserved a look in the NHL this year, particularly when rotating through the likes of Bains and Podkolzin and not getting great production from either of them. If I were Alvin, I’d have signed him to a two-way contract worth $775k each year for two years, but despite the fact this most likely won’t happen, the depth will still survive. 

What the forward moves and extensions accumulate to is an all-rounded forward group that can win matchups with three different lines every night and has the flexibility to shake things up if it isn’t working. Suter with Miller and Boeser should be expected to continue to succeed, while hopefully, a top 6 winger like Buchnevich can push Pettersson and Höglander to an elite line as well. Suter also can center a third line which is useful if a cheap target comes along that management decides to sign for Miller and Boeser such as Jason Zucker. The third line of Joshua, Blueger, and Garland can hopefully continue their magic and even if they regress will still be a very solid 3rd line compared with others around the league. Teddy Blueger can shift to the 4C role if the lineup is shaken through the movement of Pius Suter, another guy who has looked good between Garland and Joshua. That leaves a 4th line of Sam Lafferty, Nils Åman, and Vasily Podkolzin with Phil Di Giuseppe and Linus Karlsson options to rotate in. Players like Bains and Räty (and hopefully Dries) are waiting in Abbotsford should they need to be called upon, along with Jonathan Lekkerimäki should Tocchet want to go bold and bring in the big gun.

Conclusion

With all of the moves made, the Canucks will have been able to build a solid roster without being extremely tight on the cap, leaving around $2.8 million to bolster the roster midseason for a playoff run in the form of either a solid depth addition or an upgrade on a player already in the roster. Abbotsford too will look promising with players such as Bains, Dries*, Lekkerimäki, Nielsen, Räty, Klimovich, Sasson, Hirose, Friedman, Brisebois, Wolanin, and Tolopilo. The NHL roster sets the team up to have a solid outside shot at the cup for next year AND continue to have a good shot for the next 3-4 years by securing both the young core and important depth that will continue to grow and hopefully get a deep run to bring it home at least once before Miller ages too much. Even then, with their young core, the Canucks should be able to retool after Miller is past his best to extend the window of competitiveness. Through finding the right roster balance of now versus later and securing important depth, I have faith that this Canucks offseason can play a role in a season we’ll talk about for decades to come.

Edits

As my ideal roster was composed before any moves were made, I’d like to quickly review the moves that happened. Filip Hronek was signed to the same contract I projected, but 2 years longer at $7.25 million by 8 years. Friedman and Karlsson were also both extended for the 2 years I had predicted and within $100,000 of my projected cap hit. Additionally, Teddy Blueger was signed at a surprisingly low 2-year by a $1.8 million deal, a team-friendly deal that could save cap space to use elsewhere, showing Allvin’s value. I had projected him to extend for 2 years at $2.25 million per year. Continuing with the moves, the Mikheyev dump happened, sending him to Chicago with Mikheyev waiving his no-trade clause. It took the 2nd round pick I had projected and brought back a 4th rather than a 5th but included the addition of Sam Lafferty. I was hoping Laffery would re-sign but given that the Mikheyev trade was a higher priority, I am at peace with it. The Canucks will look to sign a replacement piece from around the league on around the same salary and I have full faith in management to bring in the right piece. The Canucks will also retain a measly $712,000 each year of Mikheyev’s contract. Finally, Dakota Joshua was re-signed to a 4-year $3.25 million contract. If the Blueger signing didn’t show Allvin’s value, this sure did as Joshua could’ve likely got $4 million in a different market as mentioned earlier.

Despite some minor changes, management has for the most part followed a similar plan to mine, including one big decision in retaining Filip Hronek. The start to the offseason has left me more confident that Allvin and Rutherford will make the right decisions in getting this team ready for next year to be an outside contender and following through on everything I touched on regarding setting this team up for the future.