Trevor Steunenberg
June 25th, 2024
The Canucks exceeded all expectations last season, and now, they have several key roster decisions looming. Despite expectations being higher than they’ve been since the 2011-2012 season, the Canucks will be looking to take another step forward next season. Is taking a step forward even possible with so few draft picks and so many key players set to enter free agency this season? Let’s explore the potential options for each position group.
A few notes before we get going:
All contract projections are via @afpanalytics on X, and at this link
All current contracts are from PuckPedia
Signed:
Thatcher Demko ($5M)
Nikita Tolopilo ($950k)
Free Agents
Arturs Silovs (RFA)
Casey DeSmith (UFA)
This is easily the cleanest group on the roster. According to MoneyPuck.com, Thatcher Demko saved 0.438 goals above expected per 60 minutes last season, which was good for second in the NHL among goalies with at least 30 games played last season (behind only Connor Hellebuyck). At a cap hit of $5M, he is one of the best value contracts for a goaltender in the NHL, and probably the Canucks’ best contract, value-wise. Additionally, the playoff emergence of Arturs Silovs likely means that Casey DeSmith’s services are no longer needed. Re-signing Silovs will cost the Canucks about $1M on a two-year deal, and I think most Canucks fans would be thrilled to keep him around. DeSmith is only projected to get around $1.7M on a one-year deal, but with Silovs poised to be Demko’s backup, DeSmith probably wouldn’t be interested in staying in Vancouver as the third guy. There is a very strong argument for the Canucks to play Demko in around 45 to 50 games next season and give Silovs the rest to maximize the chances of the often-injured Demko being healthy for the playoffs. Call me crazy, but Demko’s injury issues combined with Silovs emergence as a potentially very good goaltender makes a small part of me wonder if the Canucks would be wise to trade Demko at or near the trade deadline next season for a haul of players and/or picks (though that is a discussion for another time). Nikita Tolopilo was quite good in 35 games with Abbotsford last season. It probably wouldn’t be a bad idea to bring in a cheap veteran guy who is willing to play most of the season in Abbotsford but can step in and play in a few games if/when Demko gets hurt. Overall, the Canucks will likely be rolling with Demko and Silovs in the crease next season, which would, on paper, be a slight improvement over last year.
Signed
Mark Friedman ($775k)
Filip Hronek ($7.25M)
Quinn Hughes ($7.85M)
Tucker Poolman ($2.5M)
Carson Soucey ($3.25M)
Noah Juulsen ($775k)
Free Agents
Ian Cole (UFA)
Tyler Myers (UFA)
Nikita Zadorov (UFA)
The defensive core is the position group with by far the most potential for changes, with four of the Canucks top six defenders set to hit free agency on July 1. Of the guys currently on the roster, Quinn Hughes is an obvious franchise cornerstone, Filip Hronek should be his partner on the top line, and I see Carson Soucey as a fringe top 4 defenceman. Ideally, Noah Juulsen would start as the seventh defenseman and come into the lineup when there’s an injury to one of the guys in the top six. Mark Friedman is probably fine as the eighth defenseman and I’m pretty indifferent on re-signing him; I’d be perfectly happy with Akito Hirose playing most of the year in Abbotsford and getting called up when needed. Tucker Poolman will almost certainly be placed on LTIR, so his cap hit will be a non-factor. With all these things in mind, we need to fill a spot on the second pairing and two spots on the third pairing.
In terms of the pending UFA defencemen, Ian Cole is projected to get a one-year deal worth $2.1M. Despite Cole’s valuable experience, he was pretty badly exposed in the playoff series against Edmonton, and his lack of speed is something that is only going to get worse. Cole should not be playing in the top 4, and I doubt he will be brought back unless it is at a very team-friendly deal. Tyler Myers is projected to get a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.2M. The much-maligned defenseman had a pretty solid playoff, and I’d like to see him back on a one or two-year deal if the price is reasonable. To me, he’s the kind of player whose style suits the playoffs and the Canucks will want him on their roster in mid-April next season. Even if the Canucks are out of the playoff race by the trade deadline, he would be on a reasonable enough contract for a contender to trade draft picks for. Finally, Nikita Zadorov is projected to get a five-year deal worth $5.3M per season. As much as I love the guy, this is a deal that I would be very uncomfortable with. Surprisingly, Zadorov’s underlying numbers in the regular season and playoffs were not that good, and certainly not worth what he will demand on the free-agent market. Zadorov is already 29, and extending him into his mid-30s at a high cap hit reeks of what Jim Benning did with Tyler Myers back in 2019. Zadorov is a good player, but I question if he will ever be great, and committing that sort of money over five years is something that the Canucks will likely regret, especially if they take a step back next season (which is very possible).
If we assume the top six is going to consist of some combination of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy and Myers, with Juulsen and Friedman/Hirose as the depth guys, the Canucks probably need to add two defensemen into the top six. There are a lot of names out there so it is really hard to predict who Patrik Allvin and Co. will target, so I’ll highlight a couple of guys that I find interesting. The first name I like is former Islanders defenseman Mike Reilly, who is projected to get a three-year deal worth $3.2M per season, which seems high to me since he only had a $1M cap hit last year and was playing in the AHL two years ago. Reilly is about to turn 31 years old, but his underlying numbers were pretty good last year. In particular, he had 55.7% of the expected goals when he was on the ice. For comparison, Zadorov only had 42.6% last season, which, to be fair to Zadorov, is hurt by him playing in Calgary for 20 games as well as going up against the opposing team’s second pairing more often than Reilly did. I’m not sure I’m a fan of the three-year term, but I’d give him a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.2M. Another guy I’d be interested in is Kevin Shattenkirk. The 35-year-old defenseman is projected to get a one-year, $1.5M deal, and would slot in on the right side of the third pairing. Age is a bit of a concern with him, Shattenkirk is the same age as Ian Cole, but his underlying numbers are significantly better than Cole’s were last season.
After these moves, the Canucks have a top six of Hughes, Hronek, Soucy, Myers, Reilly, and Shattenkirk, along with Juulsen and Friedman/Hirose as the seventh and eighth guys. In terms of who lines up where, I’d go with Hughes and Hronek as the top pairing, and then use the early parts of the season to figure out which two of Soucy, Myers, and Reilly will play on the second pairing, and who is left to pair with Shattenkirk on the third pairing. The only question now is whether this group is an upgrade over last season. Despite his strong underlying numbers, Reilly will probably be a downgrade on Zadorov but Shattenkirk would look to be an upgrade on Cole.
Signed
Elias Pettersson ($11.6M)
J.T. Miller ($8M)
Brock Boeser ($6.65M)
Connor Garland ($4.95M)
Ilya Mikheyev ($4.75M)
Pius Suter ($1.6M)
Nils Hoglander ($1.1M)
Vasily Podkolzin ($1M)
Nils Aman ($875k)
Phillip Di Giuseppe ($775k)
Free Agents
Teddy Blueger (UFA)
Dakota Joshua (UFA)
Sam Lafferty (UFA)
Elias Lindholm (UFA)
In terms of the forward group, the Canucks have ten players signed from last year’s NHL roster and four pending UFAs. Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller and Brock Boeser will be locked into the top six, but it’s less clear who will fill the other three spots in the top six. Based purely on ice time per game last season, the other three top-six forwards would be Elias Lindholm, Pius Suter, and Teddy Blueger. Needless to say, the Canucks have some holes to fill since two of those guys are set to hit unrestricted free agency on July 1st, and I don’t think Pius Suter is someone who should be regularly playing in the top six. To fill these spots, Patrick Allvin and Co. will be hoping that Nils Hoglander will be ready to step into a spot on the second line next season and they will likely see Connor Garland as a top-six guy given his resurgence last year. That leaves one spot open in the top six that will need to be filled via trade or in free agency. In terms of the bottom six, Ilya Mikheyev and Pius Suter will probably be two of the third-liners, with Vasily Podkolzin and Philip Di Giuseppe likely starting the season as fourth-line wingers. Nils Aman could be the fourth-line center, but I don’t think many Canucks fans would be upset if someone better was signed in free agency and he started the year as the 13th forward. At a minimum, the Canucks need to add a top-six forward, a third-liner, and possibly a fourth-line center.
Turning our attention to the Canucks pending UFAs now, and I would not bring any of them back. The Canucks had 45.9% of the expected goals while Teddy Blueger was on the ice, and a projected contract of two years at $2.2M is more than I’d be willing to pay for that kind of impact. Dakota Joshua is a fan favourite, but he was also incredibly lucky. The Canucks scored 56.4% of the goals when Joshua was on the ice, despite only having 48.6% of the expected goals, and Joshua’s 21.4% shooting percentage was third-best in the league (of players who played at least twelve games). Neither of those things are likely to repeat -- he had a career shooting percentage of 13.5% before last season. Quite honestly, a third-line winger getting a projected contract of $3.3M for four years seems, for lack of a better term, nuts. Sam Lafferty was acquired for a 5th-round pick last season and started the year off well, but was getting healthy scratched towards the end of last year. His underlying numbers last year weren’t great, and there are certainly better players out there for less than his projected AAV of $2.4M. Elias Lindholm will undoubtedly be the most expensive forward to retain, his projected cap hit of $6.8M for 5 years seems very likely an underestimate given he has reportedly rejected a $7Mx7yr offer from the Canucks and a $9Mx8yr offer from the Flames. He was a key player for the Canucks in the playoffs, though that is probably not sustainable since the Canucks had an incredible 61.5% of the goals when Lindholm was on the ice despite having only 48.5% of the expected goals with him on the ice. Lindholm is 29 years old, and I think signing him into his mid-30s would be another albatross contract. It’s not ideal to give up a first-round pick and other assets for a guy who only played 39 games as a Canuck, but it would be far worse to give up that haul for someone in his 30s who isn’t playing up his contract, which is a very real possibility.
In terms of some forwards the Canucks could add, I don’t have as many options in mind. After the proposed defensive and goaltender signings, the Canucks have about $9.6M in cap space to work with. I am not a fan of paying the top UFAs, especially on long-term deals into their mid to late 30s, but I found Jake Guentzel very tempting. Ultimately, his projected seven-year, $9.2M AAV contract makes me way too uncomfortable, despite him being 10th of all forwards last season in expected goal share while on the ice (at a whopping 66.2%). For context, Brock Boeser was the top Canuck in this category, and was 45th at 61.5%. Guentzel would also take up the majority of the Canucks’ remaining cap space, so it’s best to look at cheaper options. One name I’d love for the Canucks to sign is Teuvo Teravainen, who has consistently been getting around 60% of the expected goal share since he joined the Hurricanes in 2016, including 61.2% last year. Teravainen is projected to get a 4 year, $5.2M deal, and I would feel good about him playing in the top six. In terms of adding names to the bottom six, I think I’m at a point where I trust Canucks management to identify and sign players at good value. At his end-of-season press conference, Patrik Allvin said, “We’ll find the next Dakota Joshua here for the coaches to work with. I’m confident in my staff to be able to provide the right personnel for Rick and his coaches to work with and be successful moving forward.” I completely agree with this sentiment, and after signing Teravainen the Canucks would have $5.4M in cap space. If they allocate $3.5M to add a couple of forwards to the bottom six, the Canucks would be roughly $1.9M under the cap. The Canucks haven’t gone into the season that far under the cap in recent memory, but it would be smart so they can more easily make additions during the season if the team starts out as well as we all hope they do.
The Canucks have work to do this offseason if they want to build on the success of last season. The lineup that took on Edmonton in Game 7 has seven pending free agents, cap room is limited as always, and the Canucks’ first selection in the draft will be in the third round. There is some potential for improvement given by a few potentially interesting names on the free-agent market and the recent history of signing decent players for excellent value. The Canucks will almost certainly begin next season with the highest expectations in over a decade, and much of the front office’s plans for reaching, and surpassing, those expectations will be revealed in the coming weeks and months.