• Forest carbon program enrollment in Pennsylvania falls below survey predictions (with Jeremy Weber, Yucheng Wang, Natalia Mushegian, and Adam Usmanov), Nature Communications: Earth and Environment, 2025, 6, 701 [Publisher, open access]

• Policing Carbon Markets (with Antoine Dechezleprêtre and Frank Venmans), Climate Policy, 2025, [Publisher, Open access]

• Do carbon offsets offset carbon? (with Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, and Matthieu Glachant), American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 2025, 17(1), pp. 1-40 [Publisher, PDF]

Coverage: Nature Climate Change, Wall Street Journal, Last Week Tonight with John Oliver (clip here), Fast Company, Energy Institute Blog, MIT Technology Review, DW Planet A

• Little floods everywhere: what will climate change mean for you? (with David Stainforth), Climatic Change, 2025, 178(1) [Publisher, Open access]

• The challenge of non-Markovian energy balance models in climate (with Nicholas Watkins, Sandra Chapman, Aleksei Chechkin, Rainer Klages, and David Stainforth), Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 2024, 34, 072105 [Publisher, Open access].

• Allocation, allocation, allocation! The political economy of the development of the European Union Emissions Trading System (with Misato Sato, Ryan Rafaty, and Michael Grubb), WIREs Climate Change, 2022, e796 [Publisher, Open access]

• The Elusive Quest for Additionality (with Patrick Carter and Nicolas Van de Sijpe), World Development, 2021, 141, 105393. [Publisher, PDF]

• Temperature variability implies greater economic damages from climate change (with Sandra Chapman, David Stainforth, and Nick Watkins), Nature Communications, 2020, 11, 5028. [Publisher, Open access]

• Carbon Pricing and Planetary Boundaries (with Gustav Engström, Johan Gars, Chandra Krishnamurthy, Daniel Spiro, Therese Lindahl, Badri Narayanan), Nature Communications, 2020, 11, 4688. [Publisher, Open access]

• Adopt or Innovate: Understanding technological choices under cap-and-trade, American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 2020, 12(3), 170-201. [Publisher, PDF, Replication archive]

• The unintended consequences of anti-flaring policies—and measures for mitigation, (with Paasha Mahdavi), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2020, 117(23) 12503-12507. [Publisher, Open access]

Coverage: The Verge

• New Priorities for Climate Science and Climate Economics in the 2020s (with David Stainforth), Nature Communications, 2020, 11, 3864. [Publisher, Open access]

• Storylines: An alternative approach to representing uncertainty about climate change (with Theodore Shepherd, Emily Boyd, Sandra C. Chapman, Suraje Dessai, Ioana Dima-West, Hayley Fowler, Rachel James, Douglas Maraun, Olivia Martius, Catherine Senior, Adam Sobel, David Stainforth, Simon Tett, Kevin Trenberth, Bart van den Hurk, Nicholas Watkins, Robert Wilby, Dimitri Zenghelis), Climatic Change, 2018, 151(3-4), 555–571. [Publisher, Open access]

• On the Physics of three Integrated Assessment Models (with David Stainforth), Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 2017, 98(6), 1199-1216. [Publisher, Open access]

• Environmental Policy and Directed Technological Change: Evidence from the European carbon market (with Antoine Dechezleprêtre), The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2016, 98(1), 173-191. [Publisher, PDF, Replication archive]

• Tall tails and Fat tails: The science and economics of extreme warming (with David Stainforth and Simon Dietz), Climatic Change, 2015, 132(1), 127-141. [Publisher, Open access]

• Who will win the green race? In search of environmental competitiveness and innovation (with Sam Fankhauser, Alex Bowen, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, David Grover, James Rydge, and Misato Sato), Global Environmental Change, 2013, 23(5), 902-913. [Publisher, PDF]

• Carbon markets: A historical overview, WIREs Climate Change, 2013, 4(2), 107-119. [Publisher, PDF]

• Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change? (with Antony Millner, David Stainforth, and George MacKerron), Climatic Change, 2013, 116(2), 427-436. [Publisher, PDF]

• Improving cost-efficiency of conservation auctions with joint bidding, Journal of Environmental Economics and Policy, 2012, 1(2), 128-145. [Publisher, PDF]

• Do carbon offsets offset carbon? Evidence from the world's largest offset programme (with Jonathan Colmer, Antoine Dechezleprêtre, and Matthieu Glachant), VoxDev, April 2025 [Publisher, Open access] 

• The social cost of carbon: Where our measurements fall short, Common Home, Issue 04, April 2023. [Publisher, Open access]

• The economics of global climate variability, US CLIVAR Variations, Winter, 2022. [Publisher, Open access]

• Clean technology: How the European carbon market is spurring innovation, Principles for Responsible Investment, October 9, 2020. [Publisher, Open access]

• Replication as a Credible Pre-Analysis Plan, Berkeley Initiative for Transparency in the Social Sciences, June 2015. [Publisher, Open access]

• Fooled by Climate Change, Los Angeles Review of Books, July 2014. [Publisher, Open access]

• The Founding Fathers v. The Climate Change Skeptics, The Public Domain Review, February 2014. [Publisher, Open access]

• A review of "Public policy in an uncertain world" by Charles Manski, Environment and Planning C, 2014, 32(3). [Publisher, Open access]

• Causes and Costs of Innovation: An essay on "The Idea Factory" by Jon Gertner, Los Angeles Review of Books, November 2013. [Publisher, Open access]. Abridged version appeared in Environment and Planning C, 2014, 32(2). [Publisher, Open access]

• Permits to pollute can be bought too cheaply (with Cameron Hepburn), The Conversation, August 2013. [Publisher, Open access]

• A review of "What money can’t buy" by Michael Sandel and "Strings attached" by Ruth Grant, Economics and Philosophy, 2013, 29(2). [Publisher, PDF]

• Are first-borns more likely to attend Harvard? (with Antony Millner), Significance, 2012, 9(3), 37-39. [Publisher, PDF]

• Low-CO2 innovation is up, but not because of the EU ETS (with Antoine Dechezleprêtre), Carbon Market Europe, 2012, 11(6).

• A review of "Progress for the Poor" by Lane Kenworthy, Environment and Planning C, 2012, 30(4). [Publisher, Open access]

• A review of "Carbon Coalitions" by Jonas Meckling, Environment and Planning C, 2012, 30(4). [Publisher, Open access]

• US healthcare reform: More changes are required (with Kathy Liu), Student British Medical Journal, September 2011. [Publisher, PDF]