Working Papers
Working Papers
Scheduled: LACEA Annual Meeting, 2025 Presented at the 45th Meeting of the Brazilian Econometric Society, 2023.
Abstract: Do parents actually become less productive after having children? We study this question in an exceptionally clean setting for measuring on-the-job performance: Brazilian judges. These high-skill public servants produce a primary output—sentencing decisions—systematically recorded and incorporated into formal promotion criteria. Caseloads are randomly assigned through automated systems, eliminating scope for selective task allocation by employers or self-selection by workers. Judges enjoy lifetime tenure, fixed pay, and strong dismissal protections, insulating employment and earnings from temporary absences or fluctuations in performance. In this context, we find only short-lived dips in output during statutory leave, followed by a full return to pre-birth levels for both mothers and fathers. Broader performance—timeliness, engagement, and decision quality—remains stable, as do employment, earnings, and promotion trajectories. Our mechanism analysis indicates that job security, high autonomy, flexible scheduling, and clear procedural rules enable parents to absorb short-run disruptions without altering long-term output. Individual advantages such as education, income, occupation, or family background are insufficient to prevent penalties in less protected settings, underscoring that it is job structure—rather than worker characteristics—that enables full recovery after childbirth.
Work in Progress
Parental Leave, Family and Firms (with D. Britto, A. Fonseca, B. Sampaio)
Scheduled: LACEA Annual Meeting, 2025
Abstract: We investigate the effects of maternity and paternity leave on families and firms. Drawing on rich administrative data linking generations in Brazil and leveraging a policy reform that expanded parental leave, we evaluate the impacts on parents, their spouses, and children, as well as the broader consequences for firms. Our analysis spans labor market outcomes, fertility, health, and education, offering new evidence on the multifaceted effects of parental leave in a developing country context. We find that mothers eligible for extended leave experience a 6.33 p.p. increase in post-birth employment and a 56.63% rise in earnings, with no significant labor effects for fathers. Regarding fertility decisions, paternity leave accelerates subsequent births among fathers and their partners. Female spouses of treated fathers face a sharper, though temporary, child penalty that fades within two years. Despite the additional time spent with children, we find no evidence of mental health improvements for either parents or spouses. For children, the policy boosts early education enrollment by 11.57 p.p. and improves short-term health during the first 12 months of life. On the firm side, we find sharp contrasts between large and small employers. Large firms experience a modest decline in the share of female workers but an increase in women’s representation among top earners, driven primarily by childless women, suggesting a reallocation of career opportunities. Small firms, by contrast, face steep drops in female employment and earnings, reflecting their limited capacity to absorb the costs of extended leave. We further show that firms receiving fiscal compensation to offset the cost of the policy—through tax deductions—maintain or improve female employment, earnings shares, and representation in top positions. Those actively claiming these deductions not only avoid negative impacts but even show net gains for female participation and career advancement.
Digital Transformation, A.I., and the Productivity of Public Sector Workers
Previous Work
Do Protests Reach the Ballots? The Electoral Dividend of the Brazilian Spring (with Rafael Costa Lima). Annals of the 47th National Meeting of Economics, 2019. Available here
Presented at the 47th National Meeting of Economics, 2019.
Abstract: What are the electoral consequences of major protests? This paper presents empirical evidence that the Brazilians cities that hosted demonstrations in the so called 2013 Brazilian Spring displayed different electoral outcomes the following year. Using a diff-in-diff approach, we were able to conduct an empirical study of panel data measuring the impact of those demonstrations in the 2014 elections. We observe that protests were related to political renewal, an increase in the electoral competitiveness, and an increased use of the institutional mechanisms for contesting an election. Also, we observe an increased rejection of candidates already known by the electorate, especially those attached to the Executive Branch, and those affiliated with the incumbent president’s party.