An energy transition is complex
An energy transition is complex
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When we speak of achieveing a transition away from fossil fuels it is easy to underestimate just how vast and complex an undertaking this will be. The socio-technical system based on fossil fuels underpins the entirety of our modern civilisation. At best this energy transition in its embryonic stage, but more likely we can describe recent developments as constituting an "energy addition" or "energy expansion" as we are so far merely adding renewable sources of energy to ever greater fossil fuel consumption in order to meet rapidly growing demand for energy worldwide.
To stick with oil alone, the fact is that despite an increasing emphasis over the last two decades on the need to rid ourselves of our dependence on it, world demand for crude oil has increased by more than 22% from 83+ million barrels per day in 2005 to 102+ million barrels per day in 2023. The forecast for crude oil demand in years to come is higher still. There is no peak in demand yet, and when it comes a decline following a peak it will likely be very gradual rather than precipitous.
To get a sense of how much oil the world needs on a daily basis, let's stick with the 102 million barrels of oil per day to illustrate the volume. One barrel of oil is equal to about 159 litres. So 102,000,000 x 159 = 16,218,000,000 (or 16.2 billion) litres per day. Beware any suggestion that "ending oil" is straightforward; simple solutions to very complex problems are usually pie in the sky.
Wanting to better understand this challenge and where it may lead us in the future constitutes one main driver of my current research.
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