Peer-reviewed publications:

Tariffs, productivity, and resource misallocation. World Bank Economic Review (2025), Joint with Michael Kilumelume, Carol Newman and John Rand. [Paper Here] 

Abstract: This paper documents a strong empirical link between trade protection and the misallocation of capital among import-competing domestic firms. Using a decade of tax administrative data from South Africa, the different sources of capital dispersion in 71 manufacturing industries are disentangled and a strong relationship between import tariffs and firm-specific distortions is found. A one-standard-deviation increase in import tariffs leads to aggregate productivity losses of 2.8 to 6.2 percent through this mechanism. This is driven by correlated distortions, whereby inefficient producers command a larger share of resources in industries that are more protected, and a greater dispersion in markups. The estimated effects are larger when controlling for heterogeneity in production technologies and undetectable when considering standard measures of misallocation, such as the dispersion in the average productivity of capital. 

Subsistence farming and factor misallocation: Evidence from Ugandan agriculture. World Bank Economic Review (2023),      [Paper here]  [Working Paper here]  [Slides here] 

Abstract: This paper presents a model where misallocation in the agricultural factors of production is the result of frictions in the food market which result in a disproportionately large subsistence sector. The empirical analysis, based on microdata on Ugandan farms, corroborates the theoretical predictions of the qualitative model. Specifically: subsistence farmers operate inefficiently high shares of land and capital and the efficiency losses are more severe in areas where subsistence farming is more widespread, possibly due to higher transportation costs. Conversely, I find no relationship between the level of misallocation and credit access and/or land market activity. These findings suggest that market connectivity also plays a key role in determining the efficiency of agricultural input distribution and that land market liberalization is a necessary but not sufficient condition to tackle misallocation.

Aggregate productivity and inefficient cropping patterns in Uganda. Journal of Productivity Analysis (2022), [Paper  here]  [Working Paper here]  [Slides here] 

Abstract: This paper measures the impact of inefficient spatial distribution of crops on aggregate agricultural productivity in Uganda. By combining village level data on land use and on crop specific land suitability, I show that agricultural TFP could be increased by one third just by reallocating crops according to the underlying structure of comparative advantage. Interestingly, a regional decomposition indicates that half of these gains can be achieved just by redistributing crop production within narrowly defined areas serving the same urban markets. The empirical analysis suggests that differences in market access are a good candidate to explain these inefficiencies: in line with the qualitative theoretical model, more isolated farmers devote systematically more land to non-perishable food crops and their production is less aligned with the agro-climatic conditions they face. 

Setting an example: Political leaders' cues and compliance with health policies in the early stage of the Covid-19 pandemic in Mexico. Latin American Policy (2021). Joint with Luciano Ayala and Federico Frattini. [Paper here] 

How do political leaders’ statements affect citizens’ behavior about a new and complex issue? We address this question in the context of the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico, using electoral outcomes and municipal-level mobility data from Facebook’s Movement Range Maps. In March 2020, Mexico’s president undermined the severity of the coming health crisis, disregarded health experts’ advices and claimed that mobility reduction was not necessary. Using an event-study analysis, we find that citizen’s mobility in pro-government municipalities is higher than in cities where support for the president is less strong. Our results are robust to several specifications and definitions of political support. Moreover, we find suggestive evidence that our results are driven by cities with higher media penetration suggesting that they can be attributed to the reactions to AMLO’s statements rather than to systematic differences in the preferences of AMLO’s supporters.

Rental markets, gender, and land certificates: Evidence from Viet Nam. Food Policy (2020), Joint with Luciano Ayala. [Paper here] 

Abstract: In developing countries, a significant share of land transactions occurs among closely related parties and often does not entail any specific compensation (in-kind or monetary). Despite the prevalence of these non-market or informal transactions, the literature has paid little attention to the determinants and consequences of these exchanges. In this paper we shed light on the role land use certificates play on the agreed compensation of rental agreements when landlords, particularly those with weaker ex-ante tenure security (i.e. women), rent out land to their relatives in Viet Nam. We find that female-headed households who lease their plots to relatives are less likely to receive any type of payment, unless they possess a title for the plot they leased. A regional decomposition of our results shows that this effect is more predominant in the Northern regions. 

What drives the gender-cycling gap? Census analysis from Ireland. Transport Policy (2020), Joint with James Carroll, William Brazil and Eleanor Denny. [Paper here] 

Abstract: Cycling rates have been increasing in Ireland over the last ten years, but there is a large difference in male and female participation – only about a quarter of cyclists on Irish roads are female. This paper combines the latest census data with geospatial cycle lane data to explore the drivers of the gender-cycling-gap across 238 electoral districts in Dublin, Ireland. Our core hypothesis is motivated by previous literature which suggests that differences in female risk aversion could partly explain the gap. To test this hypothesis, we explore if areas with safer cycling routes to the city centre have relatively stronger effects for females, controlling for a range of area geographic and demographic factors. Both male and female bicycle participation is negatively correlated with an area's distance to the city, share of apartments and average income, and positively correlated with education. Comparing results across genders shows that the gender-cycling-gap is due to relatively larger negative effects for distance, income and apartments for females, which is partly offset by stronger positive education effects. Routes with very high shares of separated or off-road lanes (top quartile) have significantly higher cycling rates. This effect, although stronger for females, is not statistically different across genders. We highlight a number of gender-based policy recommendations related to cycling infrastructure, bicycle storage and bicycle supports (electric bicycles). 

Working Papers:

Capital Misallocation, Agricultural Subsidies and Productivity: A European Perspective. Joint with Carol Newman.  [Working paper here]  [Most recent version here]  [Slides here] 

Abstract:  Resource misallocation is an important source of aggregate productivity loss, yet to date there is a notable dearth of studies exploring the nature and extent of misallocation in the agricultural sector of developed economies. In this paper, we analyze resource misallocation in the European agricultural sector. We quantify the impact of capital misallocation on aggregate productivity and examine the extent to which such misallocation can be attributed to farm-specific subsidies. We find that capital misallocation contributed to a 21 percent loss in productivity in the sector between 2001 and 2010. We can attribute about one third of this loss to distortionary government subsidies which disproportionately benefit relatively less productive farms. We find no evidence that the decoupling of subsidies from production in the mid-2000s reduced their distortionary effect. Our results provide an important benchmark for understanding misallocation in the context of a modern developed agricultural sector and other industries that benefit from potentially distortionary government supports.

Spillovers from extractive industries. Joint with Michael Kilumelume, Carol Newman and John Rand. [Working Paper Here] [Most recent version here] 

Abstract: Extractive industries form an important part of the economy for many developing countries but their impact on growth and welfare remains understudied. With global efforts to transition to net-zero carbon emissions in the coming decades understanding the local impacts of the extractives sector is crucially important for regional economic development policy in the management of this transition. In this paper, we use tax administrative data from South Africa to examine the local economic impact of mining activities focusing on local wages, firm profitability and job creation. Utilizing exogenous changes in international mineral and metals prices, which had a heterogeneous impact across different areas depending on the main minerals and metals being extracted, we find that, in the short term, mining activities have a positive impact on local outcomes. In particular, we find that there is a positive relationship between the size of the mining sector and local wages and firms profitability. Additionally, our results suggest that new jobs in mining create new employment in the local non-tradable industries, especially in services.