Working Papers
"Does Uncertainty Really Predict Recessions?" (with Laura Jackson and Michael T. Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Papers Series, 2026-010, https://doi.org/10.20955/wp.2026.010.
Presentation: Federal Reserve System RA Conference (May 2026), *Winner of Best Macro Paper
Abstract: We evaluate the ability of economic uncertainty measures to forecast recessions in real time. We find that including uncertainty increases the predictive power of both in-sample and out-of-sample forecast models relative to a baseline set of financial variables. A nonlinear maximum transformation of uncertainty, which captures whether a measure exceeds its maximum over the past year, improves forecast performance for some measures. Adding a contemporaneous indicator like GDP growth alongside uncertainty yields additional predictive gains. Lastly, ex post Bayesian model averaging outperforms individual uncertainty models and ex ante factors of uncertainty generated using principal component analysis.
Other Publications
"Do Government Shutdowns Affect Subsequent Data Revisions?" (with Michael T. Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blog, 10 February 2026.
"Making Sense of Recession Probabilities" (with Michael T. Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blog, 27 May 2025.
"Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace" (with Julie Bennett and Michael T. Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blog, 20 March 2025.
Coverage: U.S. Senate Letter, Investopedia
"Artificial intelligence and aggregate productivity" (with Michael T. Owyang), FRED Blog, 9 March 2026.
"Trends in US labor force participation rates for men" (with Michael T. Owyang), FRED Blog, 11 September 2025.
"The term premium" (with Mark Wright), FRED Blog, 12 May 2025.