Wither Terrestrial Broadband?

Broadband internet access for residential homes has been growing over the past 3 decades. For wireline access, the main options are copper wires (DSL/ADSL) and coaxial cable (DOCSIS). Despite efforts to improve DSL data rates and reliability, cable multi-service operators won the battle. Telcos recently moved toward fiber access and deployed fixed 5G wireless access services to complement the limited reach of fiber. Cable operators are competing using a similar strategy. However, a new access option has emerged in the form of low-orbit satellite broadband. Starlink low-orbit satellite system has become a network revolution that has effectively transcended beyond traditional wireline and wireless access. While this can be the most expensive service ($120+/month), 10 million subscribers have signed up in 4 years. With direct-to-cell service and a new $40/month 100 Mbit/s plan, the number of users grows by 20,000 a day. Driven by advanced solar power technologies and reusable rockets that can be refueled, the service is the game changer for pervasive broadband and mobile communications. Finally, there is an effective solution to bridge the digital divide and unleash the mobile traveler. 

A powerful advantage of the Starlink service is its portability, which is not possible with fixed wireless access or any wire medium. The service offers 25 to 200+ Mbit/s data rates supplemented by Wi-Fi for connectivity to multiple user devices, but experiences less downtime than cable. Because the speed of light in an optical fiber or cable is only about two-thirds of its speed in a vacuum, intersatellite communications in Starlink is faster than any terrestrial ground system. Additionally, the Starlink system is easier to launch, maintain, and upgrade than any terrestrial system, with newer satellites to be located even closer to the earth to guarantee network latencies below 1/50th of a second to support the most time-sensitive applications like video gaming and self-driving cars.

The emergence of Starlink illustrates two important facts. First, high data rates above 1 Gbit/s are unnecessary, even when supporting mixed reality applications or 4K/8K video resolutions because advanced media compression methods are available. For example, 4K UHD videos can be compressed to under 5 Mbit/s with good quality using advanced codecs such as VVC and AV1. Second, subscription cost is not a major factor. There were reports that fiber access is only available in wealthy neighborhoods where people can afford the service. For comparable data rates, the Starlink subscription fee is higher than fiber subscription but the number of Starlink subscribers has surpassed the number of fiber subscribers and this gap is expected to grow exponentially in future.

5G mobile cellular rollout has been slow, in spite of all the hype. The initial deployment was impeded by Covid. As a result, 4G-LTE formed the basis of 5G deployment and many operators still use a non-standalone 5G network, with 5G radios based on a 4G-LTE core. 5G technologies such as the use of a massive number of antennas and network slicing can be complicated to implement. Now, 5G is facing stiff competition from Starlink, which has recently introduced direct connectivity to the smartphone. The FCC also adopted rules to preserve spectrum between 12.2 to 12.7 GHz for satellite services in 2023, rejecting requests from mobile network operators to use the band for 5G. In addition to the limitations imposed by base station coverage, installation, signaling, handovers, and terrestrial RF obstructions and reflections, other innovations such as bringing a wireline network edge closer to user to reduce latency can be totally eliminated using low-orbit satellite broadband. Just like Wi-Fi in 1999, 5G is at the crossroads. Unlike Wi-Fi, which came to prominence due to Cisco System’s bold move to jumpstart the technology using its strong base of Ethernet customers, 5G cannot follow a similar route. Interoperable standards become secondary in the era of a dominant global network in the sky.