Brazil’s Economic Overview 

Brazil’s Economic Overview

In 2025, the Brazilian economy demonstrates resilience, although it faces challenges stemming from restrictive monetary policies and uncertainties in the global landscape. The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) projects GDP growth of 2.4% for 2025, with a slight deceleration to 2.0% in 2026.

The services sector continues to be the main driver of the economy, with estimated growth of 1.9% in both 2025 and 2026. The industrial sector is expected to expand by 2.1% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026, driven by domestic demand and the strength of the manufacturing industry. Agribusiness stands out with a robust 7% growth in 2025, although a moderation to 2.3% is expected in 2026.

Inflation projections, measured by the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA), indicate a rate of 5.55% at the end of 2025, with a slight decrease to 4.51% in 2026. The basic interest rate (Selic) is expected to close 2025 at 15.00%, with an anticipated reduction to 12.50% in 2026.

In terms of foreign trade, exports are expected to grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, while imports are projected to increase by 5% and 4% respectively in the same years.

From a fiscal perspective, the new fiscal framework implemented by the government sets limits on expenditure growth, aiming for the sustainability of public accounts. The expectation is a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 2025 and 1% in 2026.

In summary, Brazil presents a moderately growing economic environment, with key sectors showing positive performance. The outlook for 2026 suggests the continuation of this trend, though attention must be paid to monetary and fiscal policies that will influence the pace of economic activity.