“The Impact of Information on Voters Perceptions and Electoral Behavior: A Randomized Controlled Experiment”, Electoral Studies, 84, 102625, 2023. (joint with Claúdia Custódio, Benny Geys, Diogo Mendes and Susana Peralta) Link.
“Failing Young and Temporary Workers? The Impact of a Disruptive Crisis on a Dual Labour Market.”, The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 23(2), pages 349-395, 2023. (joint with Carolina Nunes, João Pereira dos Santos, Susana Peralta, and José Tavares) Link.
“Regional and Sectorial Impacts of the Covid-19 Crisis: Evidence from Electronic Payments.”, Journal of Regional Science, 62, pages 757-798, 2022. (joint with João Pereira dos Santos and Susana Peralta) Link
“Failing Young and Temporary Workers: The Impact of Covid-19 on a Dual labour Market.”, Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 77, Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2021. (joint with Carolina Nunes, João Pereira dos Santos, José Tavares and Susana Peralta) Link.
"What and how did people buy during the Great Lockdown? Evidence from electronic payments?'', Covid Economics, Vetted and Real-Time Papers, Issue 28, Centre for Economic Policy Research, 2020. (joint with Susana Peralta and João Pereira dos Santo) Link.
“Local Finance and Job Creation: Examining Local Fiscal Multipliers on Private Employment”, joint with Francesco Franco and Susana Peralta - WP available here.
Abstract: We propose a novel instrument to compute local fiscal multipliers. We use the fact that mayors increase spending just before local elections, which are held at regular 4-year intervals, to capture exogenous spikes in local investment expenditures. We build a rich panel of 278 Portuguese mainland municipalities, with fiscal, economic and political data, to quantify the fiscal policy transmission mechanism between 1986 and 2018. We find that a 1% increase in local investment generates a contemporaneous increase in the municipal private sector wage bill, due to an increase in the number of full time workers in the municipality, with an implied cost-per-job created of e17 200. Mean wages do not react contemporaneously to the shock. We also show spending on housing, social and sports infrastructures and roads are the investment spending components which increase the most in election years.
“Campaign spending on local elections: the effects of public funding” - WP available here. (submitted)
Featured on Uc3nomics blog.
Abstract: Little is known about the influence of public funding for electoral campaigning on campaigning decisions and electoral outcomes. This paper proposes an analytically tractable model to assess such effects and tests its results on local elections in Portugal. The case of Portugal is interesting in that public allowances are the largest source of funds for campaigning, but are capped and conditional on contemporaneous electoral results. This creates a risky lottery for candidates. We show that, when the dispersion of voter ideology is high, candidates that are ex-ante more popular spend more in campaigning and win with a higher probability. The empirical analysis relies on a novel dataset covering all candidates in 308 municipalities for 3 elections, based on the official declarations of candidates to the Portuguese Constitutional Court. Identification follows from the rules governing the allocation of public funds across candidates in the municipality. We find that the expected public funding is an important determinant of campaign spending levels and that winners, often incumbents, spend more in municipalities where voter ideology is more disperse. We also show that campaign spending boosts vote shares. The spending of the average runner-up yields 7.4 percentage points of his vote share. For the two biggest Portuguese parties the effect hovers around 9-10 percentage points. Our estimates imply a cost-per-vote between 7 and 17 euros, depending on the candidate.
“Voter Turnout in Municipal Elections: Exploiting Differences in Council Size.”, joint with Gonçalo Marques and Susana Peralta.
Proportional representation (PR) systems are expected to attract more voters to the polls, as they increase the probability of a voter being decisive in the election. Using a panel of Portuguese local elections, between 2001 and 2017, we study how the number of representatives in Town Council affects turnout. We first compute a Local Voting Power Index and show that a higher ratio of Alderman per voter increases turnout. We then rely on the population-based rule that determines the size of Town Councils in Portugal to implement a Regression Discontinuity Design and compute a causal (local) effect of Council size on voter turnout. We find that, in line with instrumental theories of voting, an increase of two local representatives is associated with a boost of between 2% and 4% in the number of votes.
“The Consequences of School Closures on Parental Hours Worked and Gender Inequality: Evidence from Portugal", with Inês Catita, Mariana Esteves and Susana Peralta
"What drives young voters? Evidence from a survey to university students", joint with Benny Geys
"The wealth distribution in Portugal: Evidence from surveys and administrative data", joint with José Pedro Sousa, Gonçalo Marques, David Leite Neves e Susana Peralta.
"Local corruption and election outcomes: Evidence from media coverage in Portugal''.
[PT] "Portugal, Social Balance 2022", joint with Susana Peralta and Miguel Fonseca, funded by La Caixa Foundation. (2023)
Report, Executive Summary, Presentation and infographics here.
[PT] "Security and inequality: evidence from Portugal", joint with Susana Peralta and Mariana Esteves, funded by Jean Monet Atlantic Network 2.0. (2023) Paper available here.
[PT] "Pobreza no Trabalho: O papel dos rendimentos e da situação familiar.", Portugal, Balanço Social: Nota intercalar 3, joint with Susana Peralta, Miguel Fonseca, and Mariana Esteves. Report available here. (2022)
[PT] "Despesas essenciais e rendimento das famílias: Os efeitos assimétricos da inflação.", Portugal, Balanço Social: Nota intercalar 2, joint with Susana Peralta and Mariana Esteves. Report available here. (2022)
[PT] "Portugal, Social Balance 2021", joint with Susana Peralta and Mariana Esteves, funded by La Caixa Foundation. (2022)
Report, Executive Summary, Presentation and infographics here.
[PT] "A pandemia e o mercado de trabalho: O que sabemos um ano depois.", Portugal, Balanço Social: Nota intercalar 1, joint with Susana Peralta and Mariana Esteves. Report available here. (2021)
[PT] "Aprendizagens perdidas devido à pandemia: Uma proposta de recuperação", joint with Pedro Freitas, Miguel Herdade, Ana Balcão Reis, and Susana Peralta. Report available here. (2021)
Presented at the Audition of the Commission of Education, Science, Youth and Sports in the Portuguese Parliament.
[PT] "Crianças em Portugal e ensino a distância: um retrato", joint with Mariana Esteves, Pedro Freitas, Miguel Herdade and Susana Peralta. Report available here. (2020)
Presented at the Audition of the Commission of Education, Science, Youth and Sports in the Portuguese Parliament.
media coverage: Público, Revista Sábado, Expresso. Presented at Audition of the Comission
[PT] "Portugal, Social Balance 2020", joint with Susana Peralta and Mariana Esteves, funded by La Caixa Foundation. 2021
Report, Executive Summary, Presentation and infographics here.
Launch event here.
(selected) media coverage: Visão, TSF, TVI24, RTP (1,2,3,4), Expresso, CM, ECO, Diário de Noticias, Jornal de Notícias, Jornal Económico, Rádio Renascença (1,2), Rádio Comercial, Sábado, Sic Notícias, Porto Canal.
[PT] "Culture and Development: A Guide for decision makers", under the coordination of José Tavares, Portuguese Ministry of Culture. (2014)