Research in Progress

Peng, Peng and Bort Huanzhang Wu. "Worlds in the Making: Power, Preferences, and the Crisis of Global Order"

Wu, Bort Huanzhang. "Interstate Socialization and Leadership in International Organizations: A Case Study on China-led AIIB"

Abstract: International organizations (IOs) can often be utilized as instruments for states, particularly a powerful leading state in IOs to induce changes in other member states’ voting behavior with material incentives and punishment. However, changes in behavior do not necessarily amount to changes in preferences. Building on theories of socialization in IOs, this paper argues that socialization via a state-led IO can be an effective mechanism for the leading state to shape its member states’ preferences. Drawing on the United Nations General Debate (UNGD) Corpus, the hypothesis is tested with a case study focused on non-Chinese founding members of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), using the computational text analysis method "WordScore" for measuring foreign policy positions and Bayesian Dynamic Multilevel Latent Factor Model (DM-LFM) for causal inference. The empirical findings suggest that these AIIB founders’ foreign policy preferences converged slightly towards China’s over time. 

Publication

Cobb, Andrew and Huanzhang Wu. “The Future of Sino-U.S. Energy Trade: Boom or Bust.” Intercollegiate US-China Journal 1, no. 1 (Winter 2021): 3-9.

Abstract:  While current trade between the United States and China in the energy feld remains relatively low, up until the outbreak of the 2018 U.S.-China Trade War, the United States was the fastest growing supplier of energy resources to China. This is due to the dual factors of the United States expanding to become one of the world’s largest energy producers and exporters, and China growing to become the world’s largest consumer of energy. In order to ascertain the future of the Sino-U.S. energy trade, we will take a look into the domestic situation of both the United States and China to analyze the current advantages and shortcomings with regard to the energy market, and utilize this pre-existing framework to discuss what consequences the ongoing breakdown in relations could yield for both countries. Through this essay, we wish to attain two goals. First of all, we attempt to outline the potential damages of a U.S.-China decoupling and to outline the level of interdependence that exists between the United States and China in the energy trade, if not in their current situation then most certainly in the future. Secondly, we hope to sketch a series of possible beginning steps towards a framework that can consider both the factors driving the United States and China apart and the factors that bind them together.