Research

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effects of a German job creation scheme (JCS) on the social integration and well-being of long-term unemployed individuals. Using linked survey and administrative data for participants and a group of matched non-participants, we find significant positive effects of being employed within this program. Participants with health impairments or an above-average duration of welfare dependence benefit more. The effects decline over the course of the program, which is explained by an increase in both the share of participants who leave the program, and of control individuals who find a job. The results suggest that JCSs should target those with the lowest employment prospects.

Abstract: This paper estimates how exposure to technological change affects the individual costs of job displacement. Using plant closures and changes in the task structure of occupational labor markets as a proxy for the gradual diffusion of new production technologies, I find that workers displaced from strongly evolving occupations suffer up to 200\% higher earnings losses. This additional penalty is mainly due to longer unemployment and higher occupational mobility and cannot be explained by pure occupation tenure or age effects. The findings are consistent with vintage human capital theory and technology-induced skills mismatch. They suggest that incumbent workers do not sufficiently invest in new skills to insure themselves against involuntary job loss even if technological change is gradual.

Abstract: The 2004 enlargement of the European Union created one of the largest institutional shifts in migration opportunities in recent years. While the mobility of workers from new member states has been widely studied, much less is known about how such reforms have affected the migration of highly skilled subpopulations. This paper examines how the staggered removal of transitional restrictions on labor market access in the EU shaped the international mobility of researchers from Central and Eastern Europe. Using newly compiled bibliometric data that tracks researcher affiliations across countries, we show that liberalization more than doubled the rate at which researchers moved from new to old member states. At the same time, the number of researchers moving in the opposite direction also increased, revealing a pattern of reciprocal “brain circulation” rather than a one-sided drain. Supplementary analysis using international patent data shows that this increase in circulation coincided with a marked rise in cross-border co-inventions, suggesting that enhanced mobility also fostered stronger transnational research collaboration. By exploiting the staggered timing of policy implementation, our study provides rare causal evidence of how institutional reforms redistribute highly skilled populations and strengthen international knowledge co-production and innovation.

Abstract: This paper examines how local labor market conditions shape the individual costs of job displacement. Using German administrative data, we match displaced and non-displaced workers and apply a difference-in-differences design to identify the effect of regional structural unemployment (SUE) at the time of displacement, a measure reflecting both supply side frictions and demand side constraints. Displacement proves significantly more costly in high-SUE regions, where re-employment rates and earnings remain persistently lower. Wage losses are up to 60 percent greater than in low-SUE regions, even after controlling for differences in observable characteristics. These losses are mainly driven by moves to lower-paying firms and greater occupational and sectoral mobility, reflecting limited regional mobility and constrained job options. The findings highlight the need for both people- and place-based policies to reduce scarring and strengthen labor market resilience in structurally weak regions.

Abstract: Routine-intensive occupations have been declining in many countries, but how does this affect individual workers’ careers if this decline is particularly severe in their local labor market? This paper uses administrative data from Germany and a matched difference-in-differences approach to show that the individual costs of job loss strongly depend on the task-bias of regional structural change. Workers displaced from routine manual occupations have substantially higher and more persistent employment and wage losses in regions where such occupations decline the most. Regional and occupational mobility partly serve as an adjustment mechanism, but come at high cost as these switches also involve losses in firm wage premia. Non-displaced workers, by contrast, remain largely unaffected by structural change.