Research

Abstract: In this paper, we analyze the effects of a German job creation scheme (JCS) on the social integration and well-being of long-term unemployed individuals. Using linked survey and administrative data for participants and a group of matched non-participants, we find significant positive effects of being employed within this program. Participants with health impairments or an above-average duration of welfare dependence benefit more. The effects decline over the course of the program, which is explained by an increase in both the share of participants who leave the program, and of control individuals who find a job. The results suggest that JCSs should target those with the lowest employment prospects.

Abstract: This paper estimates how exposure to technological change affects the individual costs of job displacement. Using changes in the task structure of occupational labor markets to proxy for the gradual diffusion of new production technologies, I document substantial heterogeneity in post-displacement outcomes: Workers displaced from strongly changing occupations experience earnings losses roughly twice as large as those from stable ones. Larger losses stem mainly from longer unemployment and higher occupational mobility and cannot be explained by occupation tenure, age, or selection and sorting across firms. These findings are consistent with vintage human capital theory and technology-induced skills mismatch. They suggest that incumbent workers do not sufficiently invest in new skills to insure themselves against involuntary job loss even when technological change is gradual.

Abstract: This paper examines how local labor market conditions shape the costs of job displacement. Using German administrative data and a matched difference-in-differences design, we measure the role of regional structural unemployment (SUE) at displacement. Displacement is substantially more costly in high-SUE regions, where re-employment and earnings remain persistently lower. Wage losses are up to 60 percent greater than in low-SUE regions, largely due to transitions into lower-paying firms and increased occupational and sectoral mobility. This reflects limited regional mobility and constrained job options, underscoring the importance of people- and place-based policies to mitigate scarring in structurally weak regions.

Abstract: The 2004 enlargement of the European Union (EU) introduced a major institutional change by removing barriers to labor market access for citizens of ten new member states. While the effects of this reform on overall migration have been widely studied, much less is known about its impact on researcher mobility and collaboration, a central driver of innovation and long-term growth. Using large-scale bibliometric data that track researchers’ affiliations over time, we exploit the staggered introduction of free labor market access after the enlargement in a difference-in-differences framework to estimate causal effects on bilateral researcher flows. We find that liberalization led to a substantial increase in researcher mobility from new to old member states, and to increases in movements in the opposite direction that are less precisely estimated but robust across specifications. We further document increases in cross-border patent co-invention, particularly for European Patent Office filings, which is consistent with closer research collaboration. Taken together, the results show that legal and administrative migration barriers constrain mobility even for highly skilled researchers, and that the EU’s Eastern Enlargement fostered a two-way integration of the European research system rather than a one-way outflow from new member states.

Abstract: A large literature studies the impact of minimum wages on employment focusing on potential displacement and reallocation effects for workers. In this paper, we ask how firms respond to the adoption of a minimum wage, in particular whether it encourages firms to increase their capital intensity or to outsource some of their production steps. We study this question in the context of Germany, which adopted industry-level minimum wages between 1997 and 2014. Our analysis is based on rich balance sheet data on firms matched to administrative records for all employees.

Abstract: Routine-intensive occupations have been declining in many countries, but how does this affect individual workers’ careers if this decline is particularly severe in their local labor market? This paper uses administrative data from Germany and a matched difference-in-differences approach to show that the individual costs of job loss strongly depend on the task-bias of regional structural change. Workers displaced from routine manual occupations have substantially higher and more persistent employment and wage losses in regions where such occupations decline the most. Regional and occupational mobility partly serve as an adjustment mechanism, but come at high cost as these switches also involve losses in firm wage premia. Non-displaced workers, by contrast, remain largely unaffected by structural change.