Publications

I have published in a variety of settings showcasing my interests in working with and conducting research for a variety of partners, including the World Bank, USAID, academic journals, and blog posts.

Kerilyn Schewel, Sarah Dickerson, B. Madson, Gabriela Nagle Alverio. (2023) “How Well Can We Predict Climate Migration? A Review of Forecasting Models.” Frontiers in Climate.

Abstract: Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. In some cases, populations will be displaced by natural disasters and sudden-onset climate events, such as tropical storms. In other cases, climate change will gradually influence the economic, social, and political realities of a place, which will in turn influence how and where people migrate. Planning for the wide spectrum of future climate-related mobility is a key challenge facing development planners and policy makers. This article reviews the state of climate-related migration forecasting models, based on an analysis of thirty recent models. We present the key characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of different modeling approaches, including gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics and statistical extrapolation models, and consider five illustrative models in depth. We show why, at this stage of development, forecasting models are not yet able to provide reliable numerical estimates of future climate-related migration. Rather, models are best used as tools to consider a range of possible futures, to explore systems dynamics, to test theories or potential policy effects. We consider the policy and research implications of our findings, including the need for improved migration data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, and scenarios-based planning. 

Takaaki Masaki, B. Madson. (2024) “Data Gaps in Microdata in the Context of Forced Displacement.” World Bank Working Papers.

Abstract: This paper aims to understand the existing gaps in micro-level data on forcibly displaced people—refugees and internally displaced persons. The paper undertakes a comprehensive review of all existing micro-level data sets in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees Microdata Library and the World Bank Microdata Library. It first identifies a corpus of micro-level data sets that are designed to have a representative sample of refugees and/or internally displaced persons and assesses gaps in geographical and thematic coverage. The paper then evaluates whether the data sets contain a core set of questions that are essential for the proper identification of refugees and internally displaced persons. The findings show that microdata on forcibly displaced people are comparatively rich in Sub-Saharan Africa in contrast to other regions. However, data scarcity is notably pronounced in countries facing fragility and conflict. Scarcity is also evident among internally displaced persons and on topics such as labor and employment, finance (for instance, credit, debt, and banking), agriculture/livestock/fishery, and education. The paper also highlights that many of the existing micro-level data sets on forcibly displaced people do not contain the core set of questions needed for proper identification of refugees or internally displaced persons according to international statistical standards.

Kerilyn Schewel, Sarah Dickerson, B. Madson, Gabriela Nagle Alverio. (2022) “Evaluating Climate-Related Migration Forecasting Models.” USAID. Research Technical Assistance Center: Washington, DC.

B. Madson, Gabrielle Moreau, Kiera O’Donnell, Henry Park, Wenrui Qu, Nathan Yang. (2024). “Saltwater Intrusion and Sea Level Rise: Changes and Challenges for the Socio-Ecological Systems on the Coastal Plain.” Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Partnership. https://apnep.nc.gov/blog/2024/01/22/saltwater-intrusion-sea-level-rise