Christopher Adam does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Even with a fixed exchange rate, dollars can usually be obtained on the parallel or black market, though at a less favourable exchange rate. It takes more of the domestic currency to buy the hard currency.
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Many African countries now face a combination of disrupted exports and worsening terms of trade. Exports grew substantially in the later 2010s because of high and rising world prices for primary products. Then the 2020s opened with a series of shocks that have contributed to the dollar shortage.
On top of this, prices for oil, food and fertiliser spiked when Russia invaded Ukraine. Rising oil prices ease dollar shortages for oil producing countries such as Angola and Nigeria but have an adverse impact on other countries.
Over the medium term, as countries become able to produce more of the goods and services people want and need, they will depend less on imports. And they will be able to export more. Their vulnerability to periodic dollar shortages will ease. But this will take time.
Dollar inflows from trade, supported by remittances and aid inflows, may be temporarily augmented by foreign direct investment and dollar borrowing from official and private lenders. But capital inflows must eventually reverse as debts are repaid and foreign investors seek dividends and repatriation of their capital. If well used, though, capital inflows can support the export-led growth strategies that the most successful developing countries have pursued.
The moderation of global inflation and the recovery of global growth are likely to bring an improvement in the terms of trade and the recovery in export demand. There is little domestic policymakers can do about this but wait.
Periodic dollar shortages are an enduring fact of life for many low-income countries, even as growth and development mean they are likely to become less frequent and less severe over time. The current pressures experienced by some countries in Africa are certainly severe, but these can be managed if countries maintain the high-quality macroeconomic management that they have developed over the last decade, especially if this domestic economic discipline is accompanied by decisive support from the international financial institutions and external development partners.
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The naira recovered to 775 naira to the dollar on the official market on Thursday from a record low of 999 naira touched last week. But it hit a record low of 1,300 to the dollar on the black market on Thursday.
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