Research

Abstract Reasoning, Theory of Mind and Character Development in the School (with Sule Alan)

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 221 (2024): 307-326.

We show that the development of abstract reasoning and cognitive empathy (theory of mind) is severely hindered when children are deprived of the stimulation of a school environment. We document significantly lower abstract reasoning and cognitive empathy scores in elementary school children who returned from an extended school closure caused by the Covid-19 pandemic relative to proximate pre-pandemic cohorts. This developmental delay has a significant socioeconomic gradient, with underprivileged children experiencing more substantial delays. We also document a significant disruption in the development of socioemotional skills: 0.24 sd lower grit, 0.43 sd lower emotional empathy, 0.06 sd lower epistemic curiosity, and 0.24 sd higher impulsivity. About eight months of school exposure results in a remarkable recovery in abstract reasoning and theory of mind for all socioeconomic groups. However, the measured levels still indicate significant delays relative to the expected developmental trajectories. No notable improvements are observed in socioemotional skills except for curiosity. These findings reveal that the damage school closures inflicted on children goes beyond well-documented academic losses and highlight the crucial role of the school environment in fostering fundamental cognition and socioemotional development in children.

The Effect of 3.6 Million Refugees on Crime  (with Murat Kirdar and Ivan López Cruz)

Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 194 (2022): 568-582.

Most studies examining the impact of migrants on crime rates in hosting populations are in the context of economic migrants in developed countries. However, we know much less about the crime impact of refugees in low- and middle-income countries—whose numbers are increasing worldwide. This study examines this issue in the context of the largest refugee group in any country—Syrian refugees in Turkey. Although these refugees are much poorer than the local population, have limited access to formal employment, and face partial mobility restrictions, we find that total crime per person (including natives and refugees) falls due to the arrival of the refugees. This finding also applies to several types of crime; the only exception is smuggiling, which increases due to the population influx. We also show that the fall in crime does not result from tighter security; we find no evidence of a change in the number of armed forces (military and civil personnel) in the migrant-hosting regions.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Peer Relationships: Insights from Classroom Social Networks - - (SSRN and AMSE Working Paper) - R&R at Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization.

In the spring of 2020, as the COVID-19 pandemic swept across the globe, governments took drastic measures to curb the virus spread, including shutting down educational institutions. This sudden and unexpected closure of schools not only disrupted the education of millions of students but also deprived them of their primary social environment---the classroom. In this study, we analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on classroom peer relationships using a unique field dataset collected from 3rd and 4th-grade primary school children in Turkey that includes both pre-pandemic and pandemic cohorts. Our findings reveal that the pandemic cohort exhibited significant differences in classroom social networks after an extended school closure compared to the pre-pandemic cohort. We document the effects contingent upon the nature of peer relationships. Specifically, while friendship relationships deteriorated, certain aspects of academic support relationships among classmates improved, driven primarily by native students, rather than their refugee peers.

The Effect of Mass Migration on Economic Development in the Formal Sector: Syrian Refugees in Turkey - (SSRN and AMSE Working Paper) - R&R at Empirical Economics

The Syrian refugee crisis is one of the most pressing humanitarian challenges of the 21st century, with Turkey—hosting over 3.6 million Syrians—carrying a disproportionate share of the burden. This study examines how this large-scale influx has affected economic development in Turkey, focusing on provincial GDP per capita as a key outcome. Using panel data from 81 provinces between 2006 and 2019, I exploit variation in refugee shares across provinces following the Syrian Civil War within a difference-in-differences framework. Employing a distance-based instrument for refugee intensity, I find that a 10-percentage-point increase in the refugee-to-population ratio reduces GDP per capita by approximately 15%, suggesting substantial economic strain, particularly in refugee-dense areas. Additionally, a complementary analysis shows that refugee inflows have increased unemployment among natives, reflecting widespread labor market disruptions. These findings offer important insights into the economic effects of large-scale forced migration in a developing country context.

From Mothers to Children: Intergenerational Returns to Education (Job Market Paper)

This study examines the intergenerational effects of maternal education on early childhood development using the 1997 Turkish Compulsory Schooling Law in a regression discontinuity framework. Drawing on the 2018 Turkey Demographic and Health Survey, it evaluates how policy-induced increases in maternal schooling affect children’s sociocognitive and physical development. Results show significant improvements in children’s ability to follow instructions, interact with peers, and in physical outcomes, including higher birth weight, reduced stunting, and better anthropometric measures. Benefits vary by maternal background: sociocognitive gains are concentrated among children of rural-origin mothers, while physical improvements are stronger for urban-origin mothers. Effects are amplified when maternal grandmothers are educated, highlighting intergenerational complementarities. The mechanisms appear to operate primarily through improvements in maternal health behaviors and knowledge—such as earlier and higher-quality prenatal care and greater exposure to informational resources—and through enhanced parenting practices, particularly substantial reductions in child neglect and more attentive supervision.